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Bihar's politics is witnessing a transition from the JP movement era which produced stalwarts like Lalu Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan, Nitish Kumar, & Sushil Modi, who shaped state and national politics.
As veterans step aside to make room for a new generation, most often these new faces are their own offspring:
Chirag Paswan: Chirag Paswan is vying for his father Ram Vilas Paswan's legacy and Hajipur seat while leading the Lok Janshakti Party Ram Vilas (LJPR). His primary rival, uncle Pashupati Paras, is not in contention. So, winning Hajipur and consolidating Dalit votes for NDA would bolster his stated position as ‘Hanuman of PM Modi’.
Tejashwi Yadav: Son of Lalu Yadav, Tejashwi is a star campaigner for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and represents the Raghopur assembly seat. He gained traction as Bihar's deputy CM, subsequent 'Jan Vishwas Yatra', crisis management skills, and campaigning prowess.
Rohini Acharya: Known for donating a kidney to her father Lalu Yadav, Rohini is contesting from Saran against BJP's Rajiv Pratap Rudy. She aims to revive her family's influence in the region and has sought support from dissatisfied BJP leader Ashwini Choubey.
Misa Bharti: Lalu Yadav's eldest daughter & a Rajya Sabha member, Bharti is contesting from Patliputra, challenging current MP Ram Kripal Yadav in a notable Yadav v. Yadav contest.
Samrat Choudhary: Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar and BJP's OBC face. He is4 the son of Shakuni Choudhary, former MP from Khagaria. Having spent considerable time in RJD & JDU, Choudhary's role in seat distribution & his leadership is well regarded in the party.
Vivek Thakur: Son of Chandreshwar Prasad Thakur, senior BJP leader and a former union minister, Vivek's rise from BYJM to securing a Rajya Sabha seat and now a Lok Sabha ticket reflects his party's trust in him, especially in mobilizing Bhumihar community.
Sanjay Jaisawal: Son of former Bettiah MP and one of BJP’s founding member Madan Prasad Jaisawal, Sanjay is eyeing his fourth consecutive win from Paschim Champaran. He was Bihar BJP’s chief before Samrat Choudhary.
Sushil Kumar Singh: Sometimes referred as prince of Aurangabad, Singh avoids invoking his father former Aurangabad MP Ram Naresh Singh’s legacy. He won on Samata Party ticket in 1998, on JDU ticket in 2009, and in 2014 joined the Modi wave.
Ashok Yadav: Son of Hukumdev Narayan, ex-minister in Modi cabinet, Ashok Yadav maintains a strong presence in Madhubani despite legal challenges. He won Madhubani in 2019, a seat won by his father in 2009 and 2014.
Ram Mandir at Ayodhya, more than 1,600 kms away from Tripura, has emerged as a crucial determinant of voting preferences of a majority of Bru community which forms about 22% of Tripura’s indigenous people.
Over the past three decades, Brus have embraced a Sanatan Dharma revivalist movement and organised under a structured Satya Sanatan Dharma Mandal or Ram Mandali.
This revivalist movement has helped propagation of Sanatani culture, traditions, and rituals among Brus.
Ram Mandir Pran Pratishtha:
Ram Mandir Pran Pratishtha was celebrated by Sanatani Brus with a lot of festivities & prayers.
A delegation of the Ram Mandali, led by the sect’s dharmaguru Manaram ‘Monu’ Sanatan Bagra, was invited by the organisers for the ceremony.
"It was a glorious occasion. The invitation was a great honour to us, especially our ‘Monu’. It was then that we decided that Brus will vote for BJP, which fulfilled the dreams of millions of Sanatanis by constructing Ram Mandir,” says Jatindra Reang of Ram Mandali.
This movement has stopped and reversed the onslaught of Christian missionaries.
Mandali succeeded in ghar wapsi of hundreds of converted Brus. “Now, less than 4% of Brus are Christians and we are actively working to bring them back to the Sanatani fold,” said Reang.
2024 LS Polls: Advantage BJP
There are about 3 lakh Brus in Tripura, mainly concentrated in Tripura East, an ST reserved LS seat.
BJP has fielded Tripuri royal ‘Maharani’ Kriti Singh Debbarma, daughter of the erstwhile King of Tripura, Kirit Bikram Debbarma from this seat.
Her job doesn’t seem too tough with widespread sentiment among Brus, as articulated by Reang, being “jo Ram ko laye hum usko layenge” (we will bring to power those who brought back Ram).
BJP aims to increase its 2019 tally of 18 seats in Bengal. While strong anti-incumbency favours BJP in Bengal, perceived non-performance of some BJP MPs poses challenges.
BJP’s focus is on ‘Modi vs. Mamata‘ narrative to gain an edge, while Mamata relies on 'Bengali versus outsiders'.
7 Factors Shaping Bengal's LS Elections:
Corruption and Scams: Alleged involvement of top TMC leaders in scams, including Didi’s nephew Abhishek, is a major concern. The recovery of cash and valuables from TMC leaders added to public scepticism.
'Denial' of Funds by Centre: The Union government stopped funds due to lack of proper accounts and alleged scams. TMC accuses BJP of vengeance against Bengal for 2021 assembly polls. No effective response from BJP has been seen.
Bengalis vs. 'Outsiders': Banerjee portrays BJP as exploiters taking without giving back, which resonated with locals in 2021. BJP's lack of Bengali representation and over reliance on Modi, Amit Shah and central BJP leaders fuels this narrative.
Shame of Sandeshkhali: Shahjahan and his associates’ land grabbing and sexual crimes, has tarnished TMC’s image and will haunt it if BJP sustains momentum.
CAA and Hindu Consolidation: BJP will leverage CAA to gain support among Hindus, especially in border districts affected by Muslim influx and Islamist aggression.
Electoral Violence, Rigging: TMC’s electoral malpractices of intimidating opposition, makes it challenging for EC. A record number of 65,000 personnel belonging to central forces will be deployed to counter this.
Despite favourable conditions, BJP faces organisational weaknesses. Merely depending on Modi will not do. BJP's opportunity lies in mobilising 54-55% Bengali and non-Bengali Hindu population who are not loyal to either the Trinamool or the Congress-Left combine.
Stay tuned to our sharp and crisp election coverage at ElectionsHQ.
Anmol N Jain