I Won’t Contest: Peculiar Situation For Congress In Gujarat

Unprecedented Challenge For BJP In It’s Gujarat Bastion

BJP is facing an unprecedented challenge in Gujarat as its candidates for LS elections are facing intense opposition in several seats:

Sabarkantha:

Shobhna Baraiya replaced Bhikhaji Thakor, after a controversy erupted over his caste. Baraiya, who is the wife of an ex-Congress MLA Mahendrasinh Baraiya, is now facing opposition from Thakor’s supporters.

There have been intense protests in Meghraj, Modasa, and Idar. So much so that Baraiya left BJP office in Modasa through the backdoor.

Kshatriya Community v. Rupala:

Union Minister Parshottam Rupala is facing backlash for his remarks on the Kshatriya community.

Rupala had remarked that the kings had bowed before the alien oppressors and had relations with them, unlike the lower castes. Despite an apology, community demands his removal as a candidate.

Surendranagar, Vadodara, Bharuch:

Tensions have sparked between among Talpada and Chuvali sub-communities of Kali community.

After Mahendra Munjpara was replaced by Chad Sihora, an ex-Congressman from Chuvaliya Kofi community, Talpada Kolis are demanding that their candidate be fielded.

Vadodara and Bharuch also witness simmering resistance against new candidates.

Turncoats Causing Internal Discord:

BJP's inclusion of turncoat Congress MLAs in bi-polls adds to internal strife, leading to resignations and dissent.

After CJ Chavda was given ticket from the seat, Bijapur Taluka President Govind Patel resigned from the party protesting against ticket to an ‘outsider’ instead of original BJP workers.

Congress’ Kerala Key For 2024 Polls!

Congress’ chances of winning more than 40 seats hinge heavily on Kerala

Context: Congress announced candidates for 20 seats in Kerala

Story of a skewed 2019:

• Out of the 52 seats won by Congress in 2019, 15 came from Kerala Also, 31 of these 52 were from just 3 states:

Projected losses in 2024:

• 8 seats – one each in Andamans, Assam, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Meghalaya, Puducherry, & Goa

After 2021 assembly polls, prospects for Kerala don’t look good for Congress:

• KEC(M)'s switch to the Communists

BJP’s resurgence: expected to recover its lost 3 percent vote

With Kerala slipping, Congress faces the grim prospect of falling short of 40 Lok Sabha seats

I Won’t Contest: Peculiar Situation For Congress In Gujarat

A peculiar situation has arisen wherein several Congress leaders in Gujarat have declined to contest in the upcoming 2024 LS elections.

Context: Congress has not won any of Gujarat's 26 Lok Sabha seats in the past decade.

Despite losses, contesting on a Congress ticket had been prestigious, but declining morale and frozen bank accounts of party have led to a downbeat mood.

Bharatsinh Solanki, Jagdish Thakor, Paresh Dhanani, and Rohan Gupta are among those refusing to enter the fray.

While personal and health reasons are being cited, the reality is low morale, factionalism dissatisfaction with leadership, and tussle with alliance partner AAP on ground.

Political Dynamics:

As Modi-Shah’s home turf, most seats are a no-contest in the face of Congress struggling to present a counter narrative.

Alliance with AAP and a challenging electoral landscape is daunting for Congress.

Solanki announced his decision not to contest saying his focus is on AICC responsibilities.

Thakor and Dhanani refused to enter the fray but said they’re committed to any high-command decisions. Dhanani is said to be in talks with BJP.

Rohan Gupta had even put together a campaign team but withdrew last minute due to his father’s displeasure with factionalism within party.

Defections and Dynasts:

Recent defections, including Ahmed Patel confidant Arjun Modhwadia joining BJP, pose additional challenges. Even to project fresh faces, party has fallen back on progeny of its former leaders.