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Quick Notes On The Upcoming Five State Elections
Five-state polls were announced on Monday
Five-state polls were announced on Monday, 9 October. Some opinion polls are coming out as well. Based on them and other assessments, I made a quick note to make sense of things.
Rajasthan
Clear anti-incumbency.
“Trend sustenance” concept. The trend gets established early and sustains. (May be related to “confirmation bias”, but for sociologists to study)
BJP will win handsomely. That is why they were willing to experiment with not naming Raje as CM.
One-sided match. Will not follow keenly from now on. BJP at 140 plus.
Madhya Pradesh
No clear anti-incumbency. Currently 50:50.
In my opinion, most complicated state in India (more than UP). Kudos to people for living in harmony with such diversity.
Eight regions behave like eight little states. Have own idiosyncrasies.
Bhopal region, Bundelkhand (UP like) and Baghelkhand (strong Upper Caste presence) are BJP strongholds.
Congress has to win big in Mahakaushal and retain Chambal - their stronghold.
Malwa will be the deal. I think psephologists should make calls based on Malwa. Nimad and Narmada follow trends.
Chhattisgarh
Don’t believe the Congress wave. They definitely have a slight edge though.
Contrary to popular belief, the tribal votes did not desert BJP as much as that of OBCs in Durg, Raipur, Bilaspur regions in 2018.
Among OBCs, the largest - Sahus, feel let down by Congress.
Ajit Jogi died in 2020. His party got around 8 per cent of vote, a majority of which is expected to come to BJP.
In 2018, around 30/90 seats won with a margin of less than 15,000 votes. Around 20/90 with less than 10,000 votes. So, close calls.
Telangana
Congress is on a blazing comeback. Seems surreal compared to June.
Currently 50-50-20 for Congress-BRS-BJP.
BJP might have miscalculated by organisational rejig. Good karma of BRS opposition now going to Congress.
BRS will brazen it out with 'money power' - Tamil Nadu style.
Constituencies close to Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh borders, which are not BRS strongholds and mostly tribal hold the key.
Best bet for BJP is for BRS to win with small margin.
Mizoram
All 40 constituencies won with a margin of less than 2,500 votes. (Simple calculation: it will take two weeks to have a 5-minute one-to-one conversation with 2,500 people)
Congress has new leadership. ZPM under Lalduhoma (ex-Congress; Indira Gandhi’s personal security man) expected to gain.
MNF (part of NDA) is in the lead. It has to be seen if it will clear majority. Close calls.
BIG PICTURE
No extrapolations to General Elections of 2024. Swings have become big and people much smarter
Since there are lot of close calls, ticket distribution will be they key. Will have to update analysis post ticket distribution of all parties.
If Congress pulls off an upset win in Telangana, it will be a big moral- and resource-booster (Hyderabad).
Caste census narrative will be tested.
33 per cent of constituencies going to polls will be reserved, with more reserved for STs than for SCs. Will be a test of governance - labharthis, aspirational districts, improved law and order, etc. That learning is the only carry forward to Parliamentary elections.
- Banuchandar Nagarajan
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