Your 2024 LS Elections Primer On Kerala!
Kerala has 20 seats in the Lok Sabha and has a total of 2.70 crore voters - 1.31 crore male, 1.39 crore female, and 300-odd third gender voters.
In 2019, the state witnessed a sweep by the Congress-led UDF winning 19 seats. Two major voter consolidations were seen: (i) minority communities against Hindutva, and (ii) the majority community against CPI(M) due to Sabarimala issue.
But in 2021 assembly polls, CPI(M)’s Pinrayi Vijayan’s made a historic sweep becoming the first chief minister to be re-elected.
UDF & LDF enjoyed similar vote shares, now disrupted by the BJP’s rising share. BJP which has been a marginal player, became a viable third front securing a significant vote share since 2014.
CPIM-led LDF is facing unprecedented anti-incumbency.
Congress-led UDF is aiming to replicate its 2019 LS sweep.
BJP-led NDA is aiming to win its first-ever seat in LS polls.
Major Issues in the 2024 Elections:
Anti-incumbency:
Like 2019, LDF led by CM Vijayan is unpopular due to poor governance, highhandedness and arrogance of CM, and serious corruption allegations like bank scams and even against CM’s own daughter.
INDI Alliance’s contradictions & PM Modi's likely return:
Unlike 2019, public perception is that re-election of PM Narendra Modi is inevitable. His focus on Kerala is likely to lead to positive outcomes and his popularity too has gone up significantly in the state. Disjointed nature of INDI Alliance does not help the UDF or LDF, gives credence to NDA's narrative of being the only 'real alternative'.
Support to Islamism and Hindu-Christian Polarisation:
An important ‘X’ factor would be BJP's likely success with Christian votes due to growing influence of Islamism in Kerala.
Issues like 'love jihad', Muslim support for conversion of Hagia Sophia to a mosque, PM's personal outreach to Christians, and Congress’ flirting with radical Islamist groups like SDPI may help BJP.
CAA: Second Independence Day For Matua Community Of Bengal
Who are Matuas?
From the namasudra caste, 30 lakh Matuas constitute 18% of the 1.8 crore SC population in Bengal
The sect was founded by Harichand Thakur in 1860 in East Bengal
Post-1947, they’ve been fleeing East Pakistan & Bangladesh due to religious persecution
Citizenship Issues & CAA Relief
Matua sect's hub of Thakurnagar erupted in celebration with the news of CAA implementation, calling it their 'second independence day'
While many Matuas secured Indian citizenship, a significant portion remains stateless & devoid of welfare benefits CAA promises dignity by ending their illegal migrant status without resorting to fraudulent means
With simple & transparent process, Matuas are spared from mercy of venal state government officials
BJP’s Electoral Gateway?
As Bengal’s second-largest SC group, Matuas wield considerable electoral influence in at least 4 Lok Sabha seats
Though concentrated in North & South 24 Parganas and Nadia, effect of CAA will be felt in other LS seats as well
BJP’s New Fortress: Scheduled Caste (SC) Reserved Seats
BJP is poised to secure maximum number of SC reserved seats, signaling a crucial political shift and base expansion.
A foundational pillar of Hindutva has been mainstreaming Dalits into the political process. This arduous task of Sangh showed results rarely as Dalit vote stayed with Congress.
The allied Muslim-Dalit vote bank proved electorally significant for the Congress for decades. Dalits are around 17% of country’s population, fairly evenly distributed (barring North East).
This gifted Congress mandate after mandate, in state after state, in election after election. Yet, as early as in 1967 assembly polls, the Bharatiya Jan Sangh (precursor to BJP) registered a thumping victory in Mewa, Himachal Pradesh.
Fifteen years later, in 1982, the BJP narrowly missed out on winning Himachal but won 8 of the 16 SC seats.
Then in late 1980s, Sangh reworked its strategy in the face of fresh dynamics of Mandir-Mandal politics and advent of BSP under Kanshi Ram & Mayawati. But in the 21st century, efforts of Sangh finally reached critical mass and Dalit vote started to move to the BJP.
In 2009, BJP won only 12 of 84 SC seats but in 2014, it shot up to 40. Much of this gain was at Congress’ peril. It won all 17 SC seats in Uttar Pradesh.
In 2019, BJP won more than half SC seats (46 of 84), this time at the peril of regional parties. Average vote share of ‘Others’ declined by 6% to 33%, while BJP’s went up to 46%.
Why BJP may win highest ever number of SC Seats?
1) BJP has 10 firewall SC seats which it won in 2009, 2014, & 2019. Congress has only 2 and could lose both this time. Shiv Sena & TMC can also claim just one firewall seat each.
2) BJP won 35 SC seats back-to-back in 2014 & 2019. No other party comes close; next best TMC won only 5 such seats.
3) In 2019, BJP’s victory margin was over 10% in 30 SC seats, and over 20% in 20 SC seats.
Opposition will have to struggle and pray if outcomes are to reverse in their favour in 2024. F
rom a Dharmic perspective, this is a welcome reality where a Dalit is simply — a Hindu and an Indian — what he or she has always been.
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