A Crown Of Thorns Awaits New President As All Odds Are Against BJP In Uttar Pradesh

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to elect its new Uttar Pradesh (UP) president by the end of this month (January 2025), as almost all sub-division (mandal) presidents have been elected.

District presidents will be elected thereafter, and the UP BJP will subsequently get a new chief to replace the current president, Bhupendra Chaudhary, who has been holding the seat since August 2022.

When Chaudhary took over the reins of the party, it was expected that his West UP and Jat backgrounds would strengthen the BJP. However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, seats of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in West UP decreased, in spite of an alliance with the supposedly Jat party of West UP, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).

In fact, the BJP's overall seat tally came down from 62 in 2019 to 33 in 2024, and its vote share came down from almost 50 per cent to 41.37 per cent.

The party has, therefore, felt the need for an organisational overhaul at all levels, from booths to sub-divisions and from districts to the state.

While it is tough to say how effective this overhaul will be, the BJP's focus appears to be clear, as the ruling party has chosen more office-bearers from the Dalit (Scheduled Castes) and Other Backward Class (OBC) communities than before.

Even for the post of state BJP president, the party is considering someone from the Dalit community, as the party wants to get back the SC voters who left the NDA for the INDI Alliance of Congress and Samajwadi Party (SP) in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

A Dalit has never served as the UP BJP chief. So, if the party appoints a Dalit leader for the post, it will also come as a befitting reply to the opposition, especially after the 'Ambedkar insult' controversy.

Among the frontrunners for the post, as per media reports, are Member of the Legislative Council (MLC) Vidyasagar Sonkar and former members of Parliament (MP) Vinod Sonkar and Ramshankar Katheria — all Dalit leaders.

While the two Sonkars were elected as MPs from eastern UP, Katheria was elected thrice from the West UP constituencies of Etawah and Agra, which makes him most suitable for the post among the three. This is because the BJP might want to maintain a regional balance, as Yogi Adityanath from East UP is already the state's chief minister (CM). Katheria has also served as the chairman of the National Commission for SCs.

Media reports suggest that OBC leaders like Rajya Sabha MPs Amarpal Maurya, Banwari Lal Verma, and Baburam Nishad are also in the reckoning to become the state BJP president.

An OBC was the party chief both times the BJP came to power in UP recently. It was Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya in 2017 and UP Jal Shakti Minister Swatantra Dev Singh, a Kurmi, in 2022.

The BJP would have chosen Chaudhary to maintain the continuity of OBC leadership. However, the fact that the party lost OBC votes in 2024 despite that decision might now push the BJP to change its strategy.

In this context, Brahmin leaders are also in the race to become the state party president — former deputy CM and Rajya Sabha MP Dinesh Sharma and former Basti MP Harish Dwivedi.

Many Brahmins have been UP BJP chiefs in the past. The last one was Mahendra Nath Pandey, who led the party in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. While the number of seats fell in comparison to the 2014 contest, the vote share had increased that year.

UP BJP's Challenges

Though it is unclear who the party will choose among the contenders, one thing is clear: the chosen leader will have their task cut out in light of the setback faced by the BJP in the 2024 election.

While it can be said that Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections are a different matter, a point of concern for the BJP is that it clocks a lesser vote share in the UP Vidhan Sabha elections than in the Lok Sabha contests.

For instance, after getting 42.63 per cent of the vote in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP got 39.67 per cent votes in 2017 Vidhan Sabha. Similarly, after winning 49.98 per cent votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the party received 41.29 per cent of the vote in the 2022 Vidhan Sabha election.

If the trend persists, the BJP's vote share will be lesser than the 2024 Lok Sabha vote share of 41.37 per cent.

However, vote shares don't always directly translate to seats. For instance, with 39.67 per cent votes, the BJP won 312 seats in 2017, while with 41.29 per cent votes, the party won 255 seats in 2022.

This happens because of factors like opposition unity. So, leaving the electoral math aside, we should understand the challenges the BJP is facing on the ground.

To win a third term, either the ruling party should have something new to offer that runs as a compelling narrative and draws votes or the opposition should be so weak that people vote for the incumbent due to a lack of options.

Neither of these factors is going the BJP's way in UP now. With its "PDA" formula (Picchde for OBCs, Dalits for SCs, and Alpasankhyak and Adivasis for minorities and tribals), the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP is emerging as a strong opposition.

At the same time, fatigue and anti-incumbency appear to be setting in among the electorate, which is apparent from the loss of two dozen incumbent MPs in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Governance Issues

The word on the street is that CM Adityanath's first term was much better than the second. It was infused with a spirit of transformation, from a law-and-order overhaul to infrastructure development, from fighting encephalitis to dismantling mafia raj.

However, since then, "Instead of reducing, the corruption increased," Shiv Sagar from Fatehpur told Swarajya. "The law-and-order situation has also worsened as compared to the first term, but is still better than in Akhilesh's rule."

A similar sentiment was expressed by a Baghpat native, who claimed that even contractors associated with the BJP's ideological parent, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), have complained of corruption.

According to him, the contractors say, "The cost has gone up. Earlier, we could compromise on quality and pay the amount to officials, but now we also have to pay the officials while maintaining quality (of work) due to a fear of being caught."

A BJP worker from Rampur also acknowledged the presence of corruption. However, he clarifies: "Earlier, there used to be a nexus of corruption. It was institutionalised. But now it is happening only at an individual level."

The two biggest achievements of the Yogi government are the improvement in law and order and development of infrastructure. But both these wins have been marred by corruption despite Yogi's zero-tolerance policy against it.

"There is not much change in the environment of thanas (police stations), except some 'all women' desks for women-related crimes. Without actual reforms in police, the tendency to just appear to be working properly is quite apparent," an information technology (IT) professional from Ghaziabad told Swarajya. "Police is taking bribes from both sides for out-of-court settlements."

Another individual, a beekeeper, on the condition of anonymity, said, "Police is just making deals with the known local criminals, and there is little improvement in the investigation process."

Apart from police, corruption in construction works is prevalent. "Playgrounds are being constructed in all panchayats, and there is corruption in it... Officers and public representatives, both are making money," the Fatehpur resident said.

Such claims resonate with what's reported in the news. The caving in and waterlogging of Ayodhya roads within months of inauguration, for instance, made it to the headlines, and responsible officers were suspended as a result.

The power department has a similar story. Bribes are allegedly demanded for even small requests like load extension. While power cuts have drastically reduced, 24-hour power supply remains a dream, especially in summer.

However, the Rampur BJP worker said corruption is not affecting the common person much because welfare schemes are reaching them through direct benefit transfers (DBT), leaving no room for middlemen to cash in.

The high-handedness of officials also remains a challenge for the Yogi government.

Officials often behave arrogantly with people. This is seen during routine official processes or, say, anti-encroachment drives. No reasoning is provided for their actions, which plants grudges against the government.

"Officers consider themselves so powerful that they do not even listen to BJP ministers and public representatives, let alone BJP workers and the common public," a Mathura resident told Swarajya.

Political observers say that to control corruption among public representatives, CM Adityanath gave officials a free hand. However, this strategy has come back to bite him, as officers are reportedly using their power arbitrarily.

Adityanath's situation with officers was previously seen in the case of Nitish Kumar. The Bihar CM performed well during his first term with the help of officers, but his subsequent terms witnessed a fall in performance due to those very same officers. To avoid such a situation, the UP CM needs to change his strategy.

Electoral Hurdles

As per the CSDS Lokniti post-poll survey, both OBC and SC votes have drifted away from the BJP.

Since then, the opposition has been very active in trying to hold on to these votes through various utterances and gestures, while no innovative moves have been coming from the BJP to win back these votes.

The SP has been successful in running with the Thakur raj narrative, alluding to Adityanath's Rajput caste and suggesting the dominance of one caste in the UP polity.

Until the BJP makes extensive outreach plans for the two communities and Yogi's 'Batenge to katenge' (we'll lose if we get divided) slogan outperforms Yadav's PDA outreach, there is little hope for the ruling party.

UP is anyway known to change the party in power every five years. In 2022, the BJP became the first party to retain power for another term since 1985, when Congress did the same.

Against this backdrop, coming to power for a third time is definitely an uphill task. But the BJP has won against odds before, most recently in Haryana, when political pundits predicted the opposite.

To repeat the feat, however, the BJP needs to introspect about what they did right in Haryana and how that can be implemented in UP.

Perhaps a crucial factor will be a greater involvement of the RSS. This already provided positive outcomes for the BJP in the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections, and even in the UP assembly bypolls, where the NDA won seven of nine seats.

While bypolls are generally pro-incumbent and are won due to local factors — and, therefore, cannot be seen as a litmus test for the BJP in UP — still a few grassroots workers are sensing a change for the good within the organisation.

"Positive changes are definitely there," says Vaibhav Vishwakarma, a BJP worker from Lucknow, while another worker adds, "Senior leaders have started listening more to junior workers like us."

Even the RSS effect is visible, as Rampur BJP worker Mukesh Pathak tells Swarajya, "More OBC people have started joining the RSS, which was not so common in UP, believing it to be a backdoor entry into the BJP."

Apart from improving the organisational structure with the help of the RSS, the BJP needs to hang on to its 'no corruption' brand, as one can't deny the role of 'no bribery jobs' in the BJP victory in Haryana.

On the other hand, 2024 has not been a great year for government jobs in UP due to paper leaks and subsequent failures in organising recruitment exams, not to forget the UP Public Service Commission (UPPSC) protests.

The opposition knows how to tap youth distress. Hence, CM Adityanath should respond proactively. Other than government jobs, the youth needs private employment, which can be generated only if investments come in.

While the Yogi government has been successful in attracting investments worth lakhs of crores of rupees, its effect is yet to be felt on the ground, except those related to tourism, as they show quick results.

Last but not the least, populist measures, such as electoral freebies, have become a trend in Indian politics. The BJP has already won elections in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh through cash handout schemes for women. The possibility of introducing such a scheme and the accrual of its benefits for the BJP in UP cannot be denied.

Nonetheless, the Yogi government and UP BJP still have two years before the 2027 election. They need to pull up their socks and start reinventing themselves before it's too late.

The BJP's election machinery can manage eleventh-hour measures like cutting out tickets of incumbent MLAs to address incumbency, selecting the right candidates, campaigning well, and announcing freebies.

But the Yogi government needs to build a foundation upon which that machinery can come into play. The new UP BJP president can make a strong start by instilling enthusiasm among party workers.