Badal Shot At, Buzz Of A Kejriwal Takeover, And Radicalism Running Amok: The Tinderbox That Is Punjab

Punjab's socio-political framework stands at a disruptive turn today. 

A large number of seemingly discrete, random events are coalescing to create conditions for the perfect storm.

The latest grim indicator of the same has been the attempt to assassinate Sukhbir Singh Badal, the supremo of the Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal), a party trying to find its ground all over again. 

The pressure on Sukhbir and others to apologise has been around since the time of the previous Akal Takht Jathedar, Giani Harpreet Singh. In his tenure, there were constant stories of friction between him and the Badal faction on the question of maafinama or apology being granted by the Akal Takht. The charge on Badal was that he and his government had failed to act swiftly and convincingly in the 2015 sacrilege cases. 

As per the stories, Giani Harpreet Singh had repeatedly stated that Badal should appear before the Takht and formally seek apology. With Giani Raghbir Singh, a handpicked man in the saddle now, all of it seemed set. 

However, the whole process of tankhaiyya and punishment seems to have backfired spectacularly for the Badals (a tankhaiyya is a person convicted to religious misconduct by the Akal Takht). There was no sympathy for the Badals beyond the traditional votaries, leave alone enthusing the Panthic base. Instead, there was ridicule to the point of even calling the whole attempt by Narain Singh Chaura, a former Khalistani terrorist, a staged one. 

The reasons for the lack of widespread sympathy for Sukhbir Badal is not surprising. There is no part of the political spectrum that has any sympathy for him in Punjab. Be it the beadbi issues, farming subsidies, or economic reform, Badal did not ever manage to stand tall like his father, the late Parkash Singh Badal. The 2024 Lok Sabha drubbing where the Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) was reduced to a historic low of one seat and fourth position in vote share has put the party on the ventilator, and every attempt to cobble together a front ended up releasing a djinn they cannot bottle now. 

The kisan morcha protests at the Punjab-Haryana border have shown no abatement, even as the farm unions continue to touch new nadirs of notoreity within the state. 

Since “BJP could not be defeated in Haryana”, the scorched earth politics of the opposition groupings has reached new levels. Now, we have motley Jat “leaders” including one religious preacher politician named Manoj Singh Duhan calling for the conversion of Hindu Jats to Sikhism, portraying it as a revolution only comparable to Ambedkar's Dhamma Chakra Divas. 

The intentions are clear, but invoking caste solidarity to spread discord in Haryana risks triggering a scenario reminiscent of 1947, ultimately paving the way for the success of conversion mafias in Punjab.

If that were not enough, we have been seeing the absolute silence of the Bhagwant Mann government. Raghav Chadha seems to have shaken his hands off altogether, and is rather busy giving interviews with his wife in NOIDA. The reason is more than evident - rumours suggest that groundwork is being laid for Arvind Kejriwal to quietly but eventually assume the role of Punjab's Chief Minister. 

This is rather interesting, since Home affairs remain under Bhagwant Mann’s control. A series of raids over the past six months by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and detention of hundreds of Khalistan-supporting terror accused led to outcry from the typical Panthic and Khalistani quarters. However, so far all these actions continue to look, despite their sternness and swiftness, as yet another kick of the can down the road. Once and if Kejriwal takes over, it is certain that this cooperation will stop for a variety of reasons. 

However, the takeover of Kejriwal will only end up stoking another sentiment that the Akalis and Congress have been repeatedly speaking about. ‘Dilli se baghavat’ (rebellion against Delhi) has always been the theme of post-1966 Punjab’s socio-political fabric for all the wrong reasons. This has led to normalisation of xenophobia within the state for “outsiders”. 

Earlier, random fights of tourists were falsely portrayed as the targeting Sikhs (read as Punjabis) in other states. While that bubble got burst, we still have the likes of drug smuggling-accused Congress leader Sukhpal Singh Khaira openly asking for “stopping the genocide” of Sikhs through restrictions on land ownership and entry permit systems. During Chhath Puja, social media buzzed with Khalistanis alleging genocide and accusing the Indian state of sponsoring demographic changes in Punjab.

Of course, this was coming for a while. The diaspora Khalistanis have gone unchecked in promoting this line, even funding the people who talk the same in India through financial and material aid. Baaz News, Gurpatwant Pannu, Jagmeet Singh, Jaskaran Singh Sandhu and many others have been working through the World Sikh Organisation in pushing this narrative in Canada and into India. The symbiotic relationship is evident when you realise that the attack on Kali Mandir in Patiala was a precursor to the events that followed in Canada with the brazen targeting of Hindu temples.

But for the government actions on security, the whole landscape is starting to remind one of the dark days that preceded the widespread terrorist outbreak across Punjab. The tinderbox that Punjab sits on today would explode if another botched up security operation takes place. 

Amritpal Sandhu's ranting was leading to it, and his election to the Parliament stands as a reminder of where the ground sentiment stands. But for how long will even he command the sentiment? When individuals like Barjinder Parwana openly threaten figures such as Acharya Dhirendra Shastri, and Hindus and migrants continue to face targeting amid the activities of the conversion mafia, it serves as an unsettling reminder of dark times that no one wishes to revisit. 

However, the continued tacit support of the Khalistan project by elements within the Five Eyes member states has meant that there is only one logical direction in which the entire trainwreck of Punjab is headed.

Punjab’s descent into a maelstrom of difficult times seems to be inevitable unless something radically changes within the state's political and social apparatus. 

Till the appeasement of radical separatist elements continues with the retort of “but why not ban Hindutva?”, one cannot expect better. 

The lack of a suitable intellectual environment and continued victimhood mentality that sees everything as a global conspiracy to “finish Sikhi” has led to a decay that cannot be reversed unless a clean break from the dominance of such elements in every aspect of public discourse is made. 

The signs portend to a grim period where violence will definitely break out. Question is - does the Indian state have the stomach for strong action?