Bihar: Tejashwi Yadav Joins Yatra Bandwagon To Regain Momentum And Counter Prashant Kishor

Tejashwi Yadav, the scion of Lalu Prasad Yadav dynasty, will soon go on a Bihar yatra in the wake of upcoming assembly election in the state.

Though the details of this yatra have not been disclosed by either Tejashwi or his party Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), media reports claim that its first phase will begin from 17 August 2024. 

All members of legislative assembly (MLAs) have been instructed to prepare for the yatra in their respective constituencies.

Yadav Yatra

The yatra was announced in the aftermath of Yadav being in the firing line for skipping the monsoon session of Bihar legislative assembly. 

The yatra will begin with attacking the current Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government. One of the key nodes of attack is the law and order situation in the state.

Around a week ago, Yadav released a list of 53 incidents of crime in the state. Countering it, Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) said that Yadav has no moral right to talk on law and order, owing to the RJD's legacy of 'jungle raj'.

Yadav now seems determined to take the issue to the people's court.

The second plank of Yadav's attack is special category status (SCS) for the state. Despite a hefty package in the Union budget for Bihar, RJD wants to politicise the demand of SCS not getting fulfilled against the NDA government.

Thirdly, Yadav will convey to people that it is Nitish Kumar who is responsible for the judiciary quashing the bill of reserving 65 per cent seats for Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Classes (SCs, STs and OBCs) in Bihar.

He blames Kumar for not nudging the Narendra Modi government to put reservation related bills in 9th schedule — making it tougher to challenge it in courts.

Yadav may also look to blame NDA for Supreme Court’s judgement on sub categorisation of SCs and STs, which is likely to boomerang on him since Kumar had already sown the seeds of sub-classification by introducing Dalits and Mahadalits category way back in 2007.

Loss Of Momentum, Kishor Threat

After the result, he had asked his party members, especially MLAs to do better and work on ground. However, the lustre around such efforts started to fade soon.

A large section of RJD cadre — especially Yadavs, has developed disenchantment with Tejashwi Yadav and family. 

One reason is that the Lalu Yadav family has taken Yadav votes for granted. Tejashwi Yadav has tried to attract Kurmi-Kushwaha votes, the second-largest OBC group after Yadavs in Bihar.

He believes the RJD is the only option for Yadavs, but this is not the case. In the Rupauli bypoll, Yadavs in Purnea did not support RJD candidate Bima Bharti, showing their discontent with Tejashwi. Muslims have also shown similar voting patterns.

Prashant Kishor of the Jan Suraaj Party has noted a potential drift in Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) votes, citing that many RJD members have joined Jan Suraaj. Despite RJD's warnings, members continue to support Kishor's campaigns.

Kishor has criticised RJD's nepotism and accused them of fostering a culture of 'jungle raj'. He argued that while a "9th fail" in Lalu's family can aspire to be chief minister, an average graduate struggles to find a proper job in the state. He has also proposed a shift from the M-Y to a Muslim-Dalit strategy.

With so many setbacks in a few weeks, Yadav seems to have lost a bit of faith in his party cadre for an honest feedback regarding the impact of Kishor’s yatra on voters’ psyche. He is also preparing to counter Kishor’s yatra through his own.

Apparently, Yadav’s yatra will be taken up in a phase wise manner. Expectedly, a large part of this yatra will take place just before the assembly elections — indicating a strategy to dilute the impact of Prashant Kishor’s yatra on voters’ psyche. 

It is largely believed that voters have short memory and they are more likely to vote on the basis of the impactful event which is closer to election dates.

Past Yatra Success

Yadav’s confidence on this minute aspect of political psychology stems from his own Jan Vishwas Yatra done before general election, 2024 in February. Spread over multiple weeks, Yadav had done more than a dozen road shows covering nearly 1,400 km en route. 

These shows were the reasons why RJD’s vote share increased by nearly six percentage points to 22.14 per cent in 2024 general election. It was also the number one party on this metric. Yadav wants to better this performance in assembly elections.

The question is can he do it amidst drifting loyalties.