BJP Can Use 'Haryana Formula' In Maharashtra, But There's A Nuance They'll Have To Watch Out For

Can the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) repeat its Haryana victory in Maharashtra? The state assembly election is set for 20 November, and anti-incumbency is expected to play a key role, just as it did in Haryana.

A BJP leader, quoted by The New Indian Express, mentioned, "The BJP top leadership decided to use the Haryana formula where smaller allies were asked to contest separately so that they could divide Opposition’s votes."

It’s true that smaller parties helped the BJP in Haryana, allowing it to cut into opposition votes and secure a third consecutive term. However, there are key differences in play.

The smaller parties that aided the BJP in Haryana were not those overtly aligning with the ruling party. Instead, they were seen as opposing the BJP, which helped them siphon off anti-incumbency votes.

Before the election in Haryana, it was speculated that the BJP might ally with Gopal Kanda’s Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP) and former Union minister Venod Sharma’s Haryana Janchetna Party (HJP).

While no formal alliance materialised, the BJP left the Sirsa seat for then member of the legislative assembly (MLA) Kanda, and the HJP chose not to contest, offering its support to the BJP instead.

However, Kanda failed to win Sirsa, and his party also lost in three other constituencies. The Congress won two of these, Sirsa and Ellenabad. The BJP did not walk away with any wins wherever Kanda's party contested.

Similarly, Sharma’s HJP couldn’t help the BJP secure his former seat (2005-2014) in Ambala City, which went to Congress’ Nirmal Singh.

In several constituencies, these opposition parties individually secured more votes than the margin of victory. In some cases, their combined vote totals could have won even more seats for the BJP.

For instance, in Yamunanagar, Narwana, and Mahendragarh, the INLD's vote tally exceeded the margin of victory. Similarly, in Assandh and Ateli, the BSP held more votes than the winning margin.

Uchana Kalan was the closest race, with a victory margin of just 32 votes, where the JJP's vote count could have changed the result. The same happened in Dadri and Faridabad NIT, where opposition parties had more votes than the margin of victory.

In Maharashtra, the BJP is reportedly reassessing its alliances after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, especially after the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) outperformed the Mahayuti.

"We took the support of Raj Thackeray-led MNS (Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. We made an alliance with the Mahadeo Jankar-led Rashtriya Samaj Party and gave it the Parbhani Lok Sabha seat. But the strategy did not help us," a BJP leader admitted.

Since vote transfers between MVA parties were smoother than among Mahayuti members, it makes sense for the BJP to reconsider its alliances. But if they intend to apply the 'Haryana formula' in Maharashtra, they need to understand how it actually works.

The BJP can only hope to split anti-incumbency votes if smaller parties appear to oppose them — not by simply distancing themselves from previous allies.