BJP's Alliance Puzzle in Jharkhand: Seat-Sharing Struggles and Key Players Ft. Chirag Paswan

As the Jharkhand assembly election approaches, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has geared up for battle.

On 28 September, Himanta Biswa Sarma, co-in-charge of BJP’s poll strategy in Jharkhand, announced that the party will contest the 2025 elections alongside the All Jharkhand Students Union Party (AJSUP) and Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)).

He said a formal announcement regarding the alliance would be made after 2 October, following the end of Pitri Paksha.

They needed to iron out the seat-sharing arrangement. While the BJP was already having problems adjusting to AJSUP’s demands, the entry of Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) complicated the matter further.

JD(U)’s involvement brought along a tricky situation in the form of Saryu Roy, a former BJP member who had defeated the sitting BJP chief minister, Raghubar Das, from Jamshedpur East in the 2019 assembly election. Roy had ditched the BJP and contested as an independent for that seat.

Although Das now serves as Odisha governor, he is said to be keenly interested in Jharkhand politics. Experts aware of the Jharkhand BJP’s affairs believe he wants one of his family members (if not himself) to contest from Jamshedpur.

At the time of writing this, Kumar, Roy, and Das were all in Delhi, working to avoid a situation where Das’ candidate might contest as an independent from the Jamshedpur East seat.

This is one of two seats that remain a bone of contention between the BJP and JD(U).

“The seat-sharing agreement with the allies has been done on 99 per cent of the seats. Discussions are underway for the remaining one or two seats, and will be finalised soon,” Sarma said.

Reports suggest that the AJSUP was targeting anywhere between 13 to 16 assembly seats, while the BJP wanted to restrict this number to single digits. After multiple rounds of negotiations, AJSUP chief Sudesh Mahto is said to have lowered his demand and is likely to contest 11 seats.

Reaching a consensus is more about survival for the parties than any ideological inclination. In 2019, both parties had contested separately after being unable to come to a proper seat-sharing arrangement.

Getting Kurmi votes is another reason why taking the AJSUP on board is crucial for the BJP. Estimates suggest that Kurmis account for 10-16 per cent of Jharkhand’s population, and Mahto, a Kurmi leader, would help the NDA.

Jairam Mahto of the Jharkhand Krantikari Loktantrik Morcha (JKLM) has emerged as a significant challenger to Sudesh Mahto’s hold on Kurmi voters. Another reason the BJP included JD(U) in the NDA is that Nitish Kumar, a Kurmi leader, commands considerable support in the state.

However, the alliance play doesn’t solve all of NDA’s internal issues. Chirag Paswan, head of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP(RV)), who is often called Narendra Modi’s 'Hanuman,' may repeat what he did in the 2020 Bihar assembly election.

In 2020, Paswan decided to field candidates on his own, which led to Kumar’s JD(U) being reduced to 43 seats.

In Jharkhand, Paswan has raised his stakes by organising public meetings in places like Latehar and Palamu. His ‘Jan Aakrosh Rally’ was also a hit. In his speeches, Paswan frequently invokes his father, Ram Vilas Paswan, referring to Jharkhand as his birthplace and his father’s workplace.

In Dhanbad, Paswan declared, "LJP (Ram Vilas) will contest the upcoming assembly elections with full strength. My late father, Ram Vilas Paswan, had a strong support base here, and the party remains strong. Our organisation will actively participate in the upcoming assembly elections."

Paswan said that his party is currently in discussions with the BJP, but if the results are not conducive, the LJP(RV) is strong enough to contest on its own.

Rajesh Verma, LJP(RV)’s leader and Member of Parliament (MP) from Khagaria, said it is up to the high command to decide on the seat-sharing arrangement.

Regarding the party's preparations, he stated they are ready to contest in 40 to 45 seats.

However, Sarma’s interim announcement about the alliance for the election is a setback for LJP(RV). Paswan would prefer to strike a favourable deal before the final announcement.