Cabinet Reshuffle In Bihar: BJP Tries To Assert Itself Before Nitish’s Heir Fully Arrives

On 26 February, 2025, the Bihar government led by Nitish Kumar conducted probably the last reshuffling of his cabinet before the 2025 assembly elections (AE) in the state, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) getting seven new berths in the government.

Building up to the D-day, Dilip Jaiswal, State President of the BJP, had resigned from the state cabinet citing his party’s “one person, one post” principle. Although he had refused to speak about the Cabinet expansion, it had become essential for Nitish Kumar to measure his grip over the coalition.

Santosh Suman, son of HAM chief and Union MSME Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, handled three portfolios, two of which—namely the information ministry and disaster management ministry—will now be handled by Krishna Kumar Mantoo and Vijay Kumar Mandal (both from BJP) respectively.

In Bihar’s power and media circles, it was widely assumed that out of seven new berths, BJP would grab five while JD(U) would get two. However, the ultimate decision came as a surprise with BJP gobbling up all seven ministerial positions. Another surprise was Nitish Kumar expanding the cabinet to its full capacity, which he is not known for due to his style of governance.

Kumar’s administrative model relies mainly on him being not just the constitutional but also the de facto mentor of the cabinet while ministers play the role of his executives.

The party has begun by getting what it wanted in the cabinet expansion.

The seven new ministers are Vijay Kumar Mandal (from the Sikti seat in Araria district), Jivesh Kumar (from the Jale seat in Darbhanga district), Krishna Kumar Mantoo (from the Amnour seat in Saran district), Sunil Kumar (from the Biharsharif seat in Nalanda district), Sanjay Saraogi (from the Darbhanga seat), Motilal Prasad (from the Riga seat in Sitamarhi district), and Raju Kumar Singh (from the Sahebganj seat in Muzaffarpur district).

Six out of seven new ministers in the list belong to the larger Mithilanchal region—the borders of which, though controversial, tend to also include districts like Muzaffarpur, Saran and Sitamarhi. In the current discourse, Darbhanga is considered a focal point in the state’s initiatives towards Mithila. In fact, Saraogi has been supportive of a separate Mithila state.

The region is considered a stronghold of BJP, as evidenced by the provision of infrastructure projects and the emphasis on the Makhana Board in the 2025-26 Union Budget.

Apart from the region, caste is also an important factor in the list of new ministers. Raju Kumar Singh and Jivesh Kumar belong to the Rajput and Bhumihar communities—'upper castes' both. Vijay Kumar Mandal is from the Nishad community, while Motilal Prasad, the Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) from Riga, belongs to the Vaishya community. 

Krishna Kumar Mantoo comes from the Kurmi community, and Sunil Kumar belongs to the Kushwaha community, both categorised under Other Backward Classes (OBCs). Sanjay Saraogi, a legislator from the Vaishya community, is also part of this caste composition.

The overall list of 36 ministers now includes 11 individuals from 'upper castes', comprising five Rajputs, three Bhumihars, two Brahmins, and one Kayastha. Ten ministers are from Other Backward Classes (OBCs), including four from the Koeri-Kushwaha community, three Kurmis, two Vaishyas, and one Yadav.

Based on the caste survey data of the state, Other Backward Classes (OBCs) account for 27.12 per cent of the state's population, while their representation in the cabinet is at 28 per cent. On the other hand, Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) comprise 36 per cent of the population, but their share in Nitish’s Cabinet is only 19 per cent.

When it comes to Scheduled Castes, which include Dalits and Mahadalits, they represent 19.65 per cent of Bihar's population, and their cabinet share matches this at 19 per cent. In contrast, the General Category holds 31 per cent of ministerial positions despite their share in the population being slightly more than half at 15.52 per cent.

The inclusion of two ministers from the 'upper castes' is explained by the narrative that Nitish Kumar is undoing what he achieved during the last twenty years—restoring law and order in Bihar. One piece of evidence in favour of this is the state’s image hitting rock bottom in online discussions. In such a situation, it is the 'upper castes' who will abandon him first in favour of Prashant Kishor and other regional leaders who may join any party, like Munna Shukla joined Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Muzaffarpur.

Raju Singh from Sahebganj is one of them. Though he won in the 2020 General Elections on the ticket of Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), Singh defected to BJP, taking two other MLAs with him. His promotion is believed to be a reward for that defection. Singh has influence over Muzaffarpur, Vaishali, and East Champaran, which also means that the party will entrust him with more responsibilities during AE 2025.

Vijay Kumar Mandal’s inclusion is an attempt to signal the Nishad community—especially its leader Mukesh Sahani—of BJP’s willingness to take the community on board. Although VIP allied with RJD in General Elections (GE) 2024, Tejashwi Yadav and Sahani have not been seen together for nearly half a year.

However, the most controversial appointments came in the form of Krishna Kumar Mantoo or Krishna Patel and Sunil Kumar. While Kumar belongs to the Kushwaha community, Mantoo has origins in the Kurmi community, the same as Nitish Kumar. Kurmis in Bihar comprise 2.87 per cent of the state’s population and have a large influence in Nalanda—Nitish Kumar’s home—and adjacent areas.

Kushwahas comprise 4.21 per cent of the state’s population, and their distribution is also more even than that of Kurmis.

In Bihar, both communities are categorised under OBC, and their combined share of more than seven per cent is second behind Yadavs, who are more than 14 per cent in the state. The Kurmi community was the first among backwards to raise its voice against the rising dominance of Yadavs in Lalu Yadav’s government of the early 90s. 

Nitish Kumar had attended a historic Kurmi Chetna Rally in 1994, which finally indicated his dissociation from Lalu Yadav’s style of politics. After the rally, he became an established leader of the Kurmi-Koeri (Kushwaha) community, which was reflected in subsequent election results too. Kumar’s Samata Party as well as JD(U) gave proper space to the community.

Thirty-one years after the rally, the issue of the Koeri-Kurmi community is again at the crossroads. In these years, leaders like Sakuni Chaudhary, his son and current deputy chief minister of the state Samrat Chaudhary, and Upendra Kushwaha did emerge, but their grip on the community is not as strong as Nitish’s.

Gearing up for the eventual decline of Nitish Kumar, various leaders from his own community want to build their base for claiming hold on Koeri-Kurmi votes. On one end, RJD is trying to get them on their side—which they partially succeeded in during the Lok Sabha elections—while BJP is trying to make some gains on its own.

In one such attempt, BJP leader Krishna Kumar Mantoo did a repeat of what Nitish Kumar did in 1994. He spearheaded the “Kurmi Ekta Rally” at Miller School Ground in Patna. Mantoo had ensured that leaders and supporters from all across the state reached the rally. Even nine legislators from nearby Nepal were also called for the event.

The humongous effort was taken to unite several subcastes under the Kurmi banner. Many leaders believe that Kurmis’ numbers have been underestimated in Bihar’s caste survey and their actual share in the population is more than that of Kushwahas. The rally was advertised as sponsored by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), but it was clear that BJP had taken the leadership position here.

Nishant Kumar—son of Nitish Kumar—was called for this event, but he did not come. JD(U) leader Abhay Patel expressed disappointment over the father-son duo not making it to the rally but did not criticise them either.

Despite its shortcomings, the rally grabbed substantial headlines and was good enough for BJP to promote Mantoo as a minister. 

This promotion within a span of six days cleared the air around BJP’s sponsoring of the event. The reward to Mantoo is considered as a signal to Nitish Kumar that he is slowly becoming replaceable or disposable—to put it more crudely.

If that was not enough, the promotion of Sunil Kumar, a Kushwaha leader, is certain to explain to Nitish Kumar that a threat of slipping into irrelevance is closer than ever. Sunil represents the Biharsharif seat from Nalanda, Nitish Kumar’s own district. For the last four decades, Nalanda has been dominated by Nitish Kumar and his close aide Shravan Kumar, who take charge as leaders of the Kurmi-Koeri duo.

Now BJP has effectively asked Sunil Kumar to be a challenger to their dominance, which may open the gates for the Nitish-Shravan duo to lose some relevance as they both enter the last decade of their respective political careers.

Junior Kumar is evolving from a hesitant individual to a person with clarity in his thoughts and speeches, which is generally the first step towards becoming a politician. It is now amply clear that his father Nitish Kumar has also removed his hesitation around the charges of nepotism coming his way at a time when he is struggling to find his own replacement in the party.

Promoting Mantoo and Sunil Kumar as Kurmi-Kushwaha leaders while BJP is in alliance with JD(U) signals how BJP is gaining confidence to punch according to its weight. Even when its national president J P Nadda arrived in Patna, it was Kumar who travelled to his guest house rather than Nadda travelling to the chief minister’s house, as the norm has been.

Kumar’s chief ministerial candidacy also does not look certain, as time and again senior leaders including Home Minister Amit Shah and state BJP President Dilip Jaiswal have refused to confirm that elections will be contested under Nitish’s leadership. While Shah’s statement led to a month-long cold war between both coalition partners, Jaiswal had to take back his statement.

Amidst all this drama, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during a programme, called Nitish Kumar the “laadla CM”. While the term itself is full of affection, using it in politics brings the accusation of undermining someone’s authority and treating him (Nitish here) as a junior partner, since “laadla” is reserved for someone younger than oneself.

These twists and turns are not being liked by most leaders wanting JD(U) to survive and thrive. Nishant Kumar is one of them, and he has publicly asked NDA to declare Nitish Kumar as the chief ministerial candidate, but NDA (read BJP) does it, retracts, apologises, and then announces it again creating a maze of denial and plausibility.

The game is expected to continue for the next few months as BJP dwells on whether it should remain confident from its Maharashtra and Delhi success or fear Nitish Kumar pulling out from the union government if he is not granted his wish.

Nitish choosing not to air JD(U)’s reservations regarding recent BJP’s gains is an indication that he is willing to compromise, but with a Lakshman Rekha of getting his desired number of seats in the upcoming election. BJP wants the 2020 AE to be the last election it contested in Bihar under the shadow of JD(U), and for that, it would want more than 120 seats for itself.

That is only possible when Nitish Kumar is under extreme pressure from all sides. Kumar’s strengths include his hold on Kurmi-Kushwaha and non-Yadav OBCs votes, as also that of the non-Pasi and non-Musahar Dalits, and women. He is also believed to be the most recognisable face of the NDA.

However, recent events indicate chinks in all these armours. For instance, a recent C-Voter survey released by India Today TV revealed that 41 per cent of those surveyed in Bihar picked Tejashwi Yadav as the first choice for chief minister, while Kumar came a distant second with 18 per cent of respondents picking him.

Prashant Kishor also registered an uptick in his popularity as the third choice with 15 per cent of the votes. Moreover, 50 per cent of voters said that they were not happy with Nitish Kumar’s governance.

The survey came at a time when negotiations for seat-sharing and chief ministership are going on. Its results are certain to reduce Kumar’s bargaining power.

For women voters, BJP has eyed replacing Nitish Kumar’s face and goodwill with that of Narendra Modi, who already holds a significant place due to pro-women policies.

Similarly, for Kurmi-Koeri and other non-Yadav OBCs, BJP began its groundwork a few years ago with the inclusion of Samrat Chaudhary and support to Upendra Kushwaha. Sending Krishna Kumar Mantoo and Sunil Kumar into the cabinet is the next step in weakening Nitish Kumar’s stronghold.

His son Nishant Kumar is not helping the father’s cause by being soft towards Lalu Yadav.

The rules in Bihar’s chessboard are changing. BJP waited, and waited, and waited for decades to assert itself after Nitish Kumar. It now does not want to wait for long and participate in another intra-alliance contest with his son Nishant.

For Nishant, politics is not going to be a bed of roses; it is, in fact, 'Guns N’ Roses'. The Cabinet expansion just proved that.