Can Chirag Paswan Help BJP Win Back Pasi Votes In Uttar Pradesh? Milkipur Assembly By-Poll Can Tell

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces the challenge of winning back Pasi votes in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and for this, it might want to use its ally Lok Janshakti Party's (Ramvilas) [LJP(R)] national president Chirag Paswan.

Paswan was in Kaushambi last week to address Vanchit Samaj Sammelan held on 26 September. Next such Sammelan is planned in Ayodhya and Gorakhpur, as per party leader Arun Bharti.

Notably, the BJP lost the 2024 Lok Sabha election both in Kaushambi, a seat reserved for Scheduled Caste (SC) candidates and in Faizabad (of which Ayodhya is a part), despite Ram Mandir inauguration.

Interestingly, both these seats were won by Samajwadi Party (SP) leaders, who hail from Pasi community. Along with them, three more Pasi leaders from SP won in Mohanlalganj, Machhlishahr and Lalganj.

On the contrary, BJP's prominent Pasi leader and former Union Minister Kaushal Kishore lost, while only three BJP leaders hailing from Pasi-Paswan communities won in Misrikh, Hardoi and Bansgaon.

This shows that a substantial portion of the Pasi community shifted its support to the SP-Congress alliance in UP. Pasis are the second largest Dalit community in the state after Jatavs.

They form around 7 per cent of the Dalit population in the state. Earlier, they used to vote for the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) as Jatavs do.

However, when the voter base of BSP started shrinking and getting focused on Jatavs, the BJP became the Pasi community's preference. In the recent election, they shifted to INDI Alliance.

The rumours spread by the SP-Congress alliance regarding the end of the reservation policy by the BJP is believed to be one of the reasons for this shift.

At such a time, Paswan can come to the BJP's rescue as he has been one of the most vocal supporters of the reservation policy and vehemently opposed the Supreme Court's suggestion of the introduction of creamy layer provision in the SC-ST reservations.

So, even if some Dalit communities have a lack of trust in the BJP due to opposition's fake narratives, Paswan can act like a bridge between them and his ally and assure the Dalit communities that he will bargain for their interests with the BJP.

Here, one thing needs to be clarified that Pasi and Paswan are different castes but both are Dalit communities and come under the SC category.

However, given the prominence of Pasi community in the eastern UP, Paswan invoked Pasi community icons like Uda Devi, Lakhan Pasi and Maharaj Bijli Pasi in his address at the Sammelan.

He also attacked the SP and the BSP and alleged that they used the Pasi community 'as a mere vote bank' while assuring them to 'restore their lost glory' and demanding a grand memorial for Raja Suheldev Pasi in Bahraich.

While it cannot be said now whether Paswan's appeals will create any ripples on the ground, the best way for the BJP to check his impact can be the Milkipur assembly by-poll.

The Milkipur assembly constituency was vacated by SP leader Awadhesh Prasad on winning the Lok Sabha election from Faizabad. Now, the SP is likely to field his son Ajit, a Pasi, for the by-poll.

On the contrary, the BJP has not decided its candidate but it is most likely to be a Pasi or a Kori as the seat is SC-reserved and the two Dalit communities have the maximum population in the constituency.

Paswan's Kaushambi Sammelan was organised by his party, but as the LJP(R) plans a similar rally in Ayodhya, it can be under National Democratic Alliance (NDA) banner, with a focus on Milkipur.

If Paswan delivers Milkipur to the BJP, he can be given an opportunity in the 2027 UP assembly elections, similar to what he is eyeing for in Jharkhand as he plans LJP(R)'s expansion.