Key Takeaways From Results Of Gujarat And Himachal Assembly Elections

There are many takeaways from result trends in the two state assembly elections — Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh.

First, in Gujarat, where Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won for the seventh consecutive time and beaten Madhavsinh Solanki’s 1985 sweep of 149 seats by a significant margin. It is clear that the state will back Narendra Modi to the hilt as long as he remains Prime Minister.

In other states, the PM’s own popularity matters less than local leaders and local issues, but in Gujarat that is not the case.

Second, in the smaller states, where constituencies and victory margins are smaller, and local leaders loom larger than national ones, victory and defeat may be less predictable. This is why despite a very small difference in vote share, the BJP has lost to the Congress in Himachal.

The vote share does not look like an anti-incumbency wave against the BJP, and in the Lok Sabha elections, the results may well go with the party, since Modi is the man on the ticket.

Three, in a wave election, which is the case in Gujarat, especially with the opposition vote split between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the bullwhip effect has taken the winner far past the projected seat counts indicated in the exit polls.

Four, predicting seats from vote share is obviously a difficult exercise, as sample size and correct stratification of swing zones in specific seats may be very important. This is why most polls for the Himachal vote went wrong, and only Axis-India Today pointed in the right direction.

Five, AAP’s share of media voice is greater than its ground support. In Gujarat, its vote share was less than half that of Congress, and in Himachal it drew a blank, despite promising the moon to voters.

While AAP should win the Delhi municipal elections, its claims to being a national party need further wins to stand the test of time.

Even after winning Punjab, its total Lok Sabha seat count will be lower than that of many single-state parties like Trinamool, DMK, Biju Janata Dal, or the TRS and YSR Congress. AAP’s hype is greater than its actual performance outside Delhi.

Six, despite problems on the jobs front and inflation, the voter is clearly not willing to give up on the BJP just yet. Economic headwinds have not impacted the results this time. If the economy does better over the next 18 months, this factor will not impact 2024 too.

Broadly, the BJP’s massive victory in Gujarat after the win in Uttar Pradesh earlier this year builds strong momentum for the party’s 2024 shot at power at the Centre.