Maharashtra: Are We Seeing The Beginning Of The End Of MVA?

There's a general belief amongst journalists in Maharashtra, that what Sharad Pawar says once gets more credence if he comes out with a clarification on it.

Hence, when he announced that he would step down as the head of the Nationalist Congress Party, the seriousness of the statement got a boost when his nephew Ajit Pawar told the media that Pawar had agreed to reconsider his decision.

Similarly, when Sharad Pawar cast aspersions on the future of MVA on 23 April, it was seen as a one-off statement. But when he came out with a clarification on the 24th, it got credence.

So what was Sharad Pawar's original statement that caused a fury in Maharashtra's politics? Pawar on 23 April had said: "“There is a willingness to work together. But mere desire is not always enough. Seat allotment, whether there are any other issues or not, all this hasn’t been discussed yet, so how can I tell you.”

On 24 April, he clarified what he meant: “I had said that while no final decision has been taken on sharing of seats, I was confident that the MVA would remain intact during the 2024 Lok Sabha and assembly elections.”

Sharad Pawar's first statement drew praises for him, from Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, who said that Pawar is an experienced politician.

Pawar's statement had made the Maharashtra government happy, but at the same time ended up upsetting the MVA partners. Just as today's statement has ended up confusing NCP cadres and journalists alike.

The MVA comprises three parties, Uddhav Thackeray's faction, Congress and the NCP. When the alliance was formed, Uddhav had the highest number of MLAs, but Shinde's rebellion made him the smallest party in the alliance. NCP became the largest party and even got the leader of Opposition post in the Maharashtra assembly.

Since Shinde's rebellion it was a known fact that the biggest challenge that MVA will face is seat sharing for future elections.

Ambitions of Uddhav Thackeray aren't hidden from anyone and he has brought smaller parties with together with him. This includes Sambhaji Brigade and Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi.

Uddhav Thackeray still thinks he deserves the biggest share of the seats in MVA, because he also has to accommodate his alliances.

Congress being a national party wants the biggest share too, and even earlier when it contested in alliance with the NCP, it contested more number seats.

Hence, it comes as no surprise that though elections are still a year from now, Sharad Pawar has already warned his alliance partners that seat sharing will need to be discussed.

Meanwhile, the other reason why the MVA alliance partners are upset with Sharad Pawar is because of his stand on the issues that the opposition wants to raise against Modi. Pawar has demolished them single handedly.

Firstly it was the Adani case, where he called it an attack on Indian business houses and second was the Modi degree issue, for which he said that degree didn't matter much.

While senior Pawar was already speaking a tune different to the joint opposition, his nephew and the leader of opposition in Maharashtra Ajit Pawar too praised Modi. He even spoke in favour of EVM machines, and showed confidence in them.

Both the Pawars have given out several hints that the future of MVA is at stake. There were several news articles claiming that Ajit Pawar can join the ruling alliance in the state, but anyone who knows Ajit Pawar knows that whatever he may do, it will only be after the consent from Sharad Pawar.

The MVA is at its weakest right now, Uddhav doesn't have MLAs and his new allies have vote banks that overlap with that of NCP and the Congress.

Uddhav's growing popularity amongst the minority voters is also detrimental for the growth of NCP and Congress.

Uddhav won't relent, and this is worrying for Sharad Pawar's politics.

In 2024, Sharad Pawar wouldn't want the NCP to go below the mark which it already has currently in the Lok Sabha and in the Assembly. If all the three parties contest together, it is a given that NCP will have to contest on fewer seats than it did in 2019 and this will reduce his party's chances of winning more seats than 2019.

The MVA has three parties with two different set of ideologies, of which one party also witnessed a rebellion, this further reduces the support that it had three years ago.

Sharad Pawar is a seasoned politician and somehow gauges what will be the political future of the state. Looks like this time too, he has understood what may happen and hence has already made his moves and started working on it.

While the intentions of Sharad Pawar are still not clear, one thing is clear that the future of MVA is bleak.