Milkipur By-Election: Everything You Need To Know About The Seat Which Will Set Up Momentum For 2027 UP Battle

While the Delhi Assembly Election 2025 headlines the election schedule of 5 February 2025, there is a by-election on the very day whose significance extends far beyond the immediate aftermath of result.

Location of Milkipur and the timing of its bypolls make it one of the most closely watched assembly bypolls in recent electoral history of India. It is one of the five constituencies that form part of the Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency. The place is a 50-60 minute drive away from Shri Ram’s birthplace, Ayodhya.

The constituency was carved out in 1967 and is known for the domination of Mitrasen Yadav, also known as Comrade Mitrasen Yadav. In four out of the five times he won this seat, Yadav chose to contest on a Communist Party of India (CPI) ticket. In 1996, the last time he won this seat, Yadav was co-opted by the Samajwadi Party (SP).

Since 2012, Awadhesh Prasad, or Awadhesh Pasi, the current Member of Parliament from Faizabad Lok Sabha, has been a constant feature of SP’s electoral prospects here. Prasad won two out of three elections he contested from Milkipur between 2012 and 2022.

The lone exception was in the 2017 Assembly Election, when Baba Gorakhnath of the BJP defeated Prasad by a handsome margin of 28,276 votes.

Traditionally, Milkipur has seen the domination of the Congress, CPI, and SP. As for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it has always needed a significant push—emanating from a cause—to win Milkipur.

In 2017, Baba Gorakhnath won primarily due to the BJP-Modi wave. Similarly, in 1991, Mathura Prasad Tewari secured BJP’s victory from Milkipur at the peak of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement.

Opposition leaders, especially SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, highlighted the symbolism of Prasad's victory multiple times.

The Milkipur bypoll is being held following Prasad’s resignation from the assembly. It is running on a delayed timeline due to a court case by Baba Gorakhnath.

SP’s decision to field Ajit Prasad, Awadhesh’s son, means that BJP is once again in a direct contest with Faizabad’s parliamentarian. However, within a span of six months, momentum seems to have shifted. For one, outside the state, BJP secured victories in Haryana and Maharashtra—two states where seasoned pollsters were predicting a definitive loss for the party.

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP won six out of nine seats in recent elections—one of which was the Muslim-dominated constituency of Kundarki. Another seat BJP won is Katehari, which lies adjacent to Milkipur.

However, repeating these feats in Milkipur is not so simple due to its demographics and party history. Varying estimates suggest that Milkipur has more than 3.5 lakh voters. Dalits comprise nearly 1.5 lakh voters, out of which Pasis have the highest share with 55,000 votes.

Brahmins, with 60,000 votes, Rajputs with 25,000 votes, and Vaishyas with 20,000 votes together form a significant 1.05 lakh votes. Koeris and Chaurasiyas, with 20,000 and 18,000 votes respectively, also hold the key to victory in close contests. The Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) combination, which is traditionally known for backing SP, accounts for 85,000 votes, with Yadavs comprising over 64.71 per cent of this share.

Except for the 'upper castes', none of these voting groups are considered BJP vote banks traditionally. The only consolation for the party on the demographic front is that Awadhesh Prasad is infamous for his anti-Sen politics—positioning himself as the antithesis of Mitrasen Yadav and family—which often leads to a split in Yadav votes against him.

However, Mitrasen's son Anand Sen Yadav, who represented Milkipur between 2002 and 2004, has decided to side with SP.

BJP has ignored Baba Gorakhnath and has given the ticket to Chandrabhanu Paswan, who also belongs to the Pasi community—the same caste as Prasad. Paswan is an advocate and businessman by profession.

He runs a clothing showroom in Rudauli and is also active in the paper industry. His business relations in Gujarat and Rudauli seem to be an aspect that SP is keen to exploit through its narrative of local vs outsider.

He is socially active in Milkipur, organising charity events and community meet-ups that include dining and marriages. Paswan enjoys more support from the 'forward community' than his BJP predecessor Baba Gorakhnath, who is accused by locals of fostering the rise of fake SC/ST cases against the 'upper castes', especially Brahmins.

A concerted effort is still required from the BJP here, and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is personally leading the campaign.

Ministers deployed for the campaign include Minister for Agriculture Education and Research Surya Pratap Shahi, Jal Shakti Minister Swatantra Dev Singh, Sports Minister Girish Yadav, Minister of State for Food and Logistics Satish Sharma, Minister of State Mayankeshwar Sharan Singh, Minister of State for AYUSH and Drug Administration (Independent Charge) Dr Dayashankar Mishra Dayalu, and Minister of State for Cooperation (Independent Charge) JPS Rathore.

On the campaign front, Yogi Adityanath has conducted at least six rallies in Milkipur, while around two dozen ministers in the state cabinet are also on the ground. In his speeches, Yogi has mainly focused on highlighting SP’s 'connection with criminals'. He referred to Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA as the "Production House of Dangai and Apradhi" (Factory of Rioters and Criminals).

"Dekh Sapai, Betiyan Ghabrai" (Women look at SP members with fear) is another slogan given by Yogi in response to SP’s previous support for Moid Khan, the man accused of raping a Dalit girl in Ayodhya. He framed the Milkipur bypolls as a contest between nationalists and the followers of Moid Khan.

Days before the assembly bypolls, another Dalit girl was allegedly raped and murdered. Awadhesh Pasi cried in front of the camera, which Yogi Adityanath dismissed as "drama." He added that the crime was likely committed by an SP member. Three individuals, namely Ram Kori, Vijay Sahu, and Digvijay Singh, have been arrested by the police.

In Milkipur too, Yogi has not spared SP’s stance on Hindu unity. He urged people to look at Akhilesh Yadav’s recent tweets, highlighting 'his consistent opposition to the Maha Kumbh because it showcases Hindu unity'.

He asked people to compare Ayodhya’s economic condition before and after BJP came to power, blaming Yadav and SP for the earlier poor state of affairs. Amidst all these speeches, Yogi never forgets to remind voters that it was Mulayam Singh Yadav who ordered the firing on karsevaks.

There are multiple reasons why BJP believes its Hindutva push can secure victory. One is the momentum garnered by "Batenge Toh Katenge" in recent months. The second, and more crucial reason, is the party's performance in Milkipur in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections.

Despite social equations not being in favour and the narrative of removing reservation by the BJP gaining momentum, SP’s margin of victory was just above 7,500. The BJP was able to clinch many of the SC-dominated booths too.

On Hindu unity front, it is leaving no stone unturned. Chandrabhanu Paswan is himself a religious person. Paswan marked his presence in the 84-Kosi Parikrama, 14-Kosi Parikrama, and Panch-Kosi Parikrama to serve the saints and devotees in Ayodhya. During Navratri, a grand feast is organised at his private residence in the Durga temple and Shiva temple.

For scheduled caste voters, Ravidas Temple's Mahant Banwari Pati Brahmachari, Pasi Temple's Mahant Swamidas, and Kabir Math official Dharmaprakash are there to consolidate the BJP’s position. Their followers are in high numbers in Milkipur, as evidenced by the grand reception they receive.

Paswan’s wife, Kanchan Paswan, former district panchayat member Rekha Chaudhary, former councillor Shakuntala Gautam, and social worker Ramchandar are coordinating with these figures.

At the ground level, the party is organising door-to-door campaigns. Although the BJP was slow to kick off this process, it is hoping that targeted campaigning will make up for the possible loss of first-mover advantage. For instance, the party has fielded former Gosaiganj MLA Indra Jit Tiwari, or Khaboo Tiwari, to win back Brahmin voters who did not come out to support Baba Gorakhnath in 2022.

In its star list of 40 members of the legislative assembly and seven ministers, the BJP has made sure that they are as diverse as they can get. Apart from doing roadshows and addressing people, these high profile leaders are also performing basic functions like being members of booth committees as well as door-to-door campaigners.

On its part, the SP has also launched massive campaigns to woo voters. The BJP fielding Khaboo Tiwari to gain Brahmin votes came in the backdrop of Pawan Pandey actively campaigning for SP.

SP's door-to-door campaign began 10–12 days before the BJP officially kicked off its efforts. At the time when the BJP was organising job fairs and sending Yogi to address the crowd, the SP cadre base was organising evening meetups in remote villages of Milkipur.

The build-up to the election saw many possible candidates, but ultimately, the SP and Awadhesh Pasi decided to go the nepotistic route and picked Ajit Prasad as the candidate.

This infuriated Suraj Chaudhary, a close aide of the Prasad family, and he left the party with reportedly 500 supporters.

On the demographic front, the SP looks secure in its shell. While Awadhesh Pasi’s name is big among Dalit voters, Akhilesh Yadav and SP are expected to bring Muslims and Yadavs together. In fact, it is this core group that is at the centre of the strategy of Yadav and his party.

The party has however been facing problems with Yadavs on two fronts. One is that of Prasad’s issue of being an anti-Yadav politician, which it has tried to counter by taking Anand Sen Yadav on board. Secondly, across the state (and also in Milkipur), some voters of the Yadav community are picking the BJP over SP.

With Muslims, the SP’s worries stem from the Kundarki by-polls and reports of Muslims approaching the BJP in Milkipur. In a closely fought election like Milkipur, minor deviations tend to decide the final winner, which explains why the SP is so anxious about securing M-Y voters.

In its list of 40 campaigners, the high-profile names include Akhilesh Yadav, Dimple Yadav, Ramgopal Yadav, Ramachal Yadav, Dharmendra Yadav, Shival Yadav, and Azam Khan, among others. Throughout the campaign, which ended on 3 February 2025, Akhilesh and Dimple headlined it, with Akhilesh promising to accelerate the development of Ayodhya and make it a world-class tourist city.

Naming Ayodhya is a clear indication that the SP has realised that the Ram Temple is something that can cut significant votes from one of their secured voting blocs too.

Additionally, Yadav and the SP’s machinery are also instilling the narrative of unfair elections in the SP cadre’s psyche. Even before the announcement of the election date, leaders from the SP cadre were heard saying, “If the administration doesn’t fight with the BJP, we will win.”

Yadav had added fuel to this fire by alleging multiple bad-faith administrative orders. At the beginning of January 2025, more than a dozen SP workers, sector in-charges, village headmen, and other office-bearers were allegedly charged with similar cases. Workers held by the police include district general secretary Bakhtiyar Khan and district secretary Ram Tej Yadav.

Shyam Lal Pal, state president of the SP, wrote a letter to the Election Commission in this regard. Attaching copies of 10 FIRs, he said that such actions negatively impact the election process and that responsible police officers—Inayatnagar SHO Devendra Pandey, SHO of Khandasa Sandeep Singh, and SHO of Kumarganj Amarjeet Singh—should be removed from their duties.

Unfairness and the administration not favouring it is one thing the SP has been repeating constantly. Even on the last day of his campaign, Akhilesh Yadav alleged that he was given wrong coordinates by the Ayodhya administration to deviate his helicopter’s path.

Yadav has asked the ECI and journalists—both national and international—to keep a strict vigil on the election in Milkipur.

For Yadav and the SP, another problem is SP rebel Suraj Chaudhary choosing to contest the election on an Azad Samaj Party (ASP) ticket. According to Chaudhary, Awadhesh Prasad had promised to give him a ticket but then went ahead with picking his son Ajit for candidacy.

After he left the SP, Chaudhary was looking for a political home, and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of Mayawati seemed a natural option. However, the BSP decided not to contest the election, which forced Chaudhary to contact the ASP for a ticket.

Chaudhary also belongs to the Pasi community—same as the BJP and SP candidates—due to which he is in a position to corner significant Dalit votes towards himself. ASP president Chandra Shekhar Azad also attracted a large crowd in his public meeting.

In the 2022 AE, the BSP’s Mira Devi had secured more than 14,000 votes, while the BJP’s Baba Gorakhnath lost by nearly 13,500 votes. The mathematical equation does suggest that if the BSP was not there, the BJP could win it.

In this case, a lot of 'forward-caste' voters are believed to have voted for the BSP due to a lack of options—they didn’t want the SP, but the BJP candidate was not favorable to them.

On the contrary, the ASP is on an upswing and is expected to garner more votes—mostly Dalits. It will be interesting to see whom it damages more, or Batenge toh Katenge vs PDA will be the main turf.

Outcome of this election will turn out to be defining moment in the run up to 2027 election.