Modi's BJP Leaves Absolutely Nothing To Chance — This Election Is Best Example

Ask any BJP supporter about the date that sends shivers down their spine, and they'll likely point to 13 May, 2004.

It was the day that a collective gasp of shock from the Parivar was heard across the world — when a performing and popular Atal Bihari Vajpayee government was shockingly defeated at the polls by a rag-tag coalition stitched together by the Congress.

They then watched in disbelief as a calculated political manoeuvre, where the appointment of a proxy Prime Minister masked the true power wielded behind the scenes, was cleverly portrayed as a sacrifice to the nation.

The depression ensuing from that day persisted for a decade, finally coming to an end in the summer of 2014 when Narendra Modi, then Chief Minister of Gujarat, was voted to power.

Riding on a wave of discontent after a decade of incumbency and fuelled by the vision of a rejuvenated India, Modi's ascent marked a turning point in the nation's trajectory.

But, the spectre of a repeat of the 2004 scenario loomed large when it was time for elections in 2019. A common discussion in political circles those days was around the similarities between the Vajpayee government and the Modi sarkar. 

Narendra Modi, much like Atal Bihari Vajpayee before him, steered the nation through a period of stringent fiscal discipline, prioritising investments, fortifying national security, and instigating ambitious developmental initiatives.

And, he had eschewed the allure of populist measures, a departure from the conventional wisdom of electoral politics which traditionally deemed poll handouts and freebies crucial for re-election.

The anxiety within the BJP ranks was further exacerbated by the party's loss of three key states to the Congress in the December preceding the national elections.

This unexpected setback served as a reminder of the volatility of Indian politics, leading to concerns within the party's leadership about the possibility of an unlikely but potential electoral upset.

As the nation braced itself for the electoral showdown, uncertainty hung heavy in the air, keeping many restless.

Additionally, the nervousness was compounded by the need to navigate the complexities of messaging for a government vying for re-election.

How does one articulate to the electorate the importance of sustained, long-term investments in the nation's growth trajectory over the transient appeal of short-term populist policies?

The BJP's strategic response to these challenges came in the form of both the PM-KISAN scheme and the enactment of EWS legislation, strategic moves finely tuned to resonate with key constituencies pivotal to the party's electoral success.

Reflecting on this period, the combined impact of these initiatives, buoyed by the enduring appeal of the Prime Minister, appeared sufficiently potent to secure victory on their own merit.

However, it was the bold and decisive Balakot operations executed by the government that injected a surge of emotional fervour, elevating what was expected to be a formidable electoral wave in 2019 into a political tsunami.

Five years on, the BJP has decided to leave almost nothing to chance. The objective remains clear: extinguish any ember from the opposition's flame even before it has a chance to spark.

Victories in three pivotal state elections marking the culmination of 2023 set off a wave of political consolidation across the country not seen since the summer of 2014.

First, there was a replenishing of party leadership across three states, laying the foundations of a new generation of the BJP. Then, the stage was set for a dynamic build-up to the momentous pran prathistha event at Ayodhya.

Following this watershed occasion, the BJP swiftly pivoted towards a multifaceted strategy: forging new alliances, welcoming influential leaders into their fold, and strategically pushing the opposition off-balance. This was executed with stealth and precision and left the Opposition scrambling for a response.

In a way, the BJP's campaign for 2024 marks a return to Realpolitik. After a decade in power, the party has shifted its strategy, relying primarily on shrewd political manoeuvres to sustain its electoral supremacy.

There are no 'Chai pe Charchas' or "Chowkidar' campaigns this time (although they may yet come). There hasn't been any room left for a dependency on a black swan event to charge up emotions. The plan has always been to outmanoeuvre its rivals through pure political prowess.

The reason one feels compelled to write this is because, the past few days have seen BJP supporters return to the paranoia of 2004. There have been discussions on turnout and whether the BJP has been complacent with the 2024 campaign.

The venting already seems to have been slightly premature with the Prime Minister amping up the heat with his attack on the Congress manifesto's regressive propositions on wealth redistribution in his rally in Rajasthan. 

Those worried (mostly well-wishers) would be wise not to compare the 2024 campaign with any they have seen in the recent past. And while the grander strategy has been to ensure that the BJP moves to victory in as business-like a manner as possible, like the PM has just demonstrated, there seems to be a plan for every possibility. Perhaps, this is not the time to doubt but to sit back and experience a master political strategist at work.