Not External Opposition, But Internal Rifts: Rajeev Chandrasekhar’s Real Test In Kerala BJP

The Kerala unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) recently saw a change of leadership with former union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar—a surprise pick—taking over as state president after the end of K Surendran’s tenure.

Surendran’s stint in the top post was significant for the party as the BJP grew in strength and visibility. It recorded its best ever performance in the Lok Sabha elections and actor Suresh Gopi created history by winning from Thrissur. The party achieved the second position in Thiruvananthapuram and finished a close third in seats like Attingal and Alappuzha. 

Chandrasekhar, who is an outsider to state level politics unlike Surendran who had achieved Kerala-wide fame due to his spearheading of the Sabarimala protests, thus has big shoes to fill. 

While the BJP seems poised to do well by riding on the momentum of the 2024 elections and the goodwill it has generated amongst Christians due to the Munambam issue, every party leader this writer spoke with said that the challenge for Chandrasekhar is more internal than external. “He is not going to have it easy within the party as the state unit is known to be plagued by factions,” was the common refrain.

The two main groups are the ones led by V Muraleedharan and P K Krishnadas—party veterans and former state presidents of the party. Apart from these two, there are multiple smaller groups at various levels ranging from city to district.

And it is these groups that seem to have struck as soon as Chandrasekhar took over as state president. Posters accusing V V Rajesh, a Thiruvananthapuram-based party leader, of financial fraud and being responsible for the defeat of Chandrasekhar in the Lok Sabha elections came up. Some of them even demanded an investigation by the Enforcement Directorate (ED). Chandrasekhar had to step in and ask for the posters to be taken down. 

Around the same time, there was the controversy about a Malayalam film Empuraan, starring Mohan Lal. Chandrasekhar, who had earlier said that he would watch it, found himself in a spot as the content of the movie turned out to be anti-Hindu.

A few weeks after facing scrutiny over content aired by a news channel owned by him, the Empuraan episode made things worse for Chandrasekhar. Though he was still new in the post and probably did not have an idea of the film’s content, and was as clueless as the common Malayali over how Mohan Lal—(who till before the movie was seen as sympathetic to the Sangh), could agree to play such a role, the more strongly Hindutva-oriented members of the party did not hold back their criticism. 

Despite these challenges, what seems to be working for him is that he is believed to enjoy the complete backing of the national leadership. Confirming this, a political observer based in the state said, “He is seen as Modi’s man. As he does not belong to any group, neither of the factions have any reason to oppose him.”

“Factionalism is the lesser problem now,” he added. The problem is more local than state level. Describing the situation, he said, “The Krishnadas faction has weakened. The only powerful leader from that group is Sobha Surendran, who is often seen as someone wronged by the state leadership irrespective of who is the state president. Even she has had only good words to say about Chandrasekhar. 

“Krishnadas is currently a member of the party's national executive and the other important leader M T Ramesh is not too strong electorally. Both of them can get 30-40,000 votes at best by contesting from their traditional constituencies.”

While agreeing with the assessment of the political observer, a party leader with a background in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) said that even though one faction is not as strong as it was in the past, it was nevertheless important to bring an outsider to set things right. 

“The best example, even though the circumstances are not exactly similar, is from Gujarat. Before Narendra Modi (from a Sangh background) was made the chief minister, the state unit of the BJP was ridden with a lot of instability. I see Chandrasekhar’s appointment as an effort by the party to make a fresh beginning and break away from the past.”

That however does not mean that the challenges can be ignored. The fact that almost all district level office bearers had been elected before Chandrasekhar took over the reins of the state unit means he would have to work with a set of people who are likely to be more inclined towards the previous leadership.

While it remains to be seen how Chandrasekhar tackles these issues, or whether he just brushes them under the carpet as some party leaders opine, he is nevertheless well positioned to take the party forward in Kerala.

But there are a few things that he needs to ensure in order for that to happen

Strengthen The Hindu-Christian Alignment Against Radical Islam

Soon after the Waqf Bill was passed, he visited Munambam, where people affected by the claim of the Waqf Board had been protesting since the last few months. The overwhelming majority of them are Christians. 

“The deft handling of the article (later taken down) in Organiser magazine (owned by the RSS) in which it was claimed that the Church was the largest owner of land in the country also showed his maturity,” said a senior journalist who spoke with this writer. Soon after the article had come out, the opposition parties had stated that after targeting Muslims through the Waqf Bill, the BJP would soon attack Christians. The Church too criticised the party. 

“The situation required a measured response and Chandrasekhar was able to come up with one. He stated that there is nothing wrong in owning land and that the problem is when someone or some organisation like the Waqf grabs land. Through this he depicted continued Hindu-Christian alignment. This is something that he has to continue. He has to keep showing to Christians that we are with you in the fight against radical Islam.”

Similarly, the party has to come up with the right responses on issues like the conflict in Manipur or allegations of Christians (including those from Kerala) being targeted in other states. 

Regarding the latter, a senior journalist who spoke with this writer said, "These incidents are usually portrayed as attacks on Christians without a deeper probe into why such an incident happened. It is often due to resistance to conversion activities. This is what should be highlighted well by the BJP."

What helps Chandrasekhar, added the political consultant, is that he is an entrepreneur, comes from a wealthy socio-economic strata and is known as someone who believes in development oriented politics. “Christians find it easier to relate to him due to his background,” said a member of the party's minority morcha.

He however had a word of caution. "The party has to cultivate more ground level leaders, i.e. encourage more Christian karyakartas to rise through the ranks like union minister George Kurian. People with a background in other parties like P C George (one of the best known Christian faces of the party) are often not liked by members of the community due to their past."

There is good news for the BJP from the Christian side though. The Christian Association and Alliance For Social Action (CASA), an organisation that has been at the forefront of creating awareness on issues such as love jihad has said that it was contemplating the formation of a political party and that in case such a party is formed, it would support the BJP.

A Hyper Local Approach

The BJP has been in power in the Palakkad municipal corporation and Pandalam municipality. In Thiruvananthapuram, it is the second largest party with 34 corporators. Winning corporation elections in the state capital and increasing the number of seats in other towns would thus be a big achievement.

The difference between earlier local body elections and this one is that expectations from the BJP are much more. While in the previous years, a good performance in perceived strongholds was enough cause for cheer, the bar is higher this time around.

But for that to happen, the party has to pivot to a campaign strategy that is different from what worked for it during the Lok Sabha elections such as Modiyude Guarantee or Viksit Keralam.

“It has to start taking up issues that that may not necessarily have a statewide resonance but important to a particular area. It could be something as simple as a local Centre of Indian Trade Unions (CITU) man harassing businessmen or corruption in laying a road.”

Speaking with Swarajya, Dr M Abdul Salam, the BJP's Malappuram candidate during the 2024 elections, said that the party has already made a beginning on this front. “The state has been divided into 30 organisational districts (from the previous 14) with an idea to have more deeper engagement.”

Giving an example of how internal rivalries have spoiled the chances of the party in Kochi, senior journalist Antony John of Malayala Manorama said, “They could have won at least 9 to 10 seats here but with the candidate of a certain ward working for the defeat of the another in a neighbouring ward and vice versa, the party ends up losing in both. If they get these many seats they could be a crucial player in Kochi, which saw a tight contest between the LDF and UDF in 2020.” (The party now has 5 corporators in Kochi).

In Pandalam, the party was at risk of losing power as recently as in December 2024, in spite of having secured a majority (18 out of 33 wards). This was because a few BJP members were inclined to support a no-confidence motion brought against their own council by the LDF.

Caste Equation Has To Be Taken Care Of In The State BJP

While Chandrasekhar himself cannot do much on this front, there is no one from the Ezhava community in a significant leadership position after the end of Surendran’s term.

The Ezhavas are the largest Hindu community in the state and have started supporting the BJP in a big way in the last few elections. The party’s biggest faces now, i.e. Suresh Gopi and Chandrasekhar are Nairs and union minister George Kurian is a Syrian Christian.

Though this is not being talked about right now, demand for it could come up soon from within the party or its alliance partner, the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), an Ezhava outfit. The party cannot afford to not give the two major communities parity in representation.

Bolstering the Development Narrative

The need to focus on local body elections in the short term does not mean that the party has to lose sight of the longer-term goal of the Assembly elections in 2026.

The political observer said, “While the party has to present a comprehensive vision for the state, it would be better if that comes later, i.e. closer to the time of elections. Till then it would be better if it focuses on Pinarayi Vijayan’s failures in order to increase the anti-incumbency feeling.”

John added that this development model should be tailored to the needs of Kerala, and it would not be enough to take a model that had worked elsewhere and portray it as well suited for the state. “Chandrasekhar is one of BJP’s best bets to work on this theme,” he added.

A Crackdown On Corruption Within The Party

"For the BJP to come to power, it has to convince the people of the state that it is a party with a difference and that it is worth giving it a shot after a long history of switching between LDF and UDF," says John.

He adds, "But unfortunately that is not often the case as lower level BJP leaders are in cahoots with their LDF and UDF counterparts when it comes to making money. This puts off people who are otherwise enthusiastic to vote for a third party."

A party leader, who did not want to be named, agreed with John. "There is corruption in things as simple as putting up of posters. I have had to repeatedly follow-up with those responsible to ensure that the requisite number of posters are printed and put up in the right places. There are also others who are there merely for a share of party funds. These elements must be dealt with strongly if we have to grow."

Deepening The Social Coalition, Aiming For Hindu Consolidation And Grooming SC Leaders

While the party's outreach to Christians has received a lot of attention from analysts, what is also important is that the BJP widens its social base amongst Hindus from the existing combination of 'upper castes', Nairs and Ezhavas.

As written in an earlier piece, the party has made good inroads amongst the Dheevaras (a fishing community). According to political commentators, the BJP probably has more representation from the community than other parties, with Prof K S Radhakrishnan, the most well known leader.

Other communities, which have been receptive to the party include the Vishwakarmas and Veera Shaivas.

The remaining Hindus, i.e. non-Ezhava OBCs and Scheduled Castes (SCs) have mostly been with the Left for various reasons like jobs, or loans from cooperative societies. "This is what is tough to break. If the Left is taking care of someone from cradle to grave, what is it that the BJP can pitch to them so that they change their voting pattern?", asked one Ernakulam based leader.

Amongst SCs, Pulayas are the largest group. While a small faction is known to support the BJP, the major problem for the party is the lack of SC faces. There are only two leaders with statewide recognition---P Sudheer, a state general secretary and Shajumon Vattekkad, who is the president of the party's SC morcha.

While the tasks mentioned are not easy, given the challenges from inside the party and the well-entrenched network of the LDF and UDF, Chandrasekhar's tenure will be keenly watched to see if he delivers the results for the BJP.