Rajasthan Assembly Elections 2023: What A Reading Of Margins Tells Us

In a state like Rajasthan, where much of the land is either arid desert or rugged hills, life has always flourished on the margins of human endurance.

Its legislative elections are no different, with political fortunes often swaying from one side to the other across agonisingly narrow gaps.

That is why, as we shall see, it would be injudicious to laud the Congress party’s victory in the 2018 assembly elections beyond a point, or to beat down the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP's) defeat that year.

The historical results table first:

In 2018, the vote share difference between the Congress and the BJP was just 0.2 per cent. That narrowness was reflected in a number of assembly seats as well.

The results speak for themselves:

From the table above, we see that the win margin in 122 of 200 assembly seats was less than 10 per cent.

Even more agonisingly, the victory margin was less than 5 per cent in 59 of these 122 close contests, and 40 seats were decided by less than 3 per cent of the popular vote.

The geographical distribution of the margins in depicted in a map below.

We see that the bulk of the close contests were in Udaipur and Jaipur divisions. This is normal for Rajasthan, as Udaipur division has traditionally been the swing region in assembly elections.

The problem for the BJP in 2018 was that it was hit by a double blow — anti-incumbency and internal dissent. No party can weather that storm.

This is easily demonstrated by a dimensionless cross-plot of BJP win/loss margins in 2018 versus vote swing between 2013 and 2018.

It is clear from the plot that it is this remarkable surge in 2013 which allowed the BJP to still win dozens of seats in 2018, even though the party suffered painful negative vote swings of even 20-30 per cent (see upper left quadrant).

In addition, the internal dissent meant that, apart from losing a large number of seats to the Congress, the BJP additionally lost 23 seats to other parties and independents.

But that situation does not exist today. In Rajasthan, it is the contender who always has the upper hand. In addition, under such conditions, numerically speaking, small swings can lead to large sweeps; especially when, compounding the confusion, a good fifth of the vote rests with the ‘Others’.

It is probably this approach which is being reflected in multiple poll surveys which give the BJP a clear edge. This would also aid in overcoming the party’s lack of a clear chief ministerial face.

And, above all that, is the utter, sordid mess the Congress finds itself in. The party has squandered whatever goodwill it received in 2018 through a hapless, hopeless, and frankly clueless administration led by Ashok Gehlot. Sachin Pilot’s perpetual sulk has only added to their electoral burdens.

Consequently, the advantage lies with the BJP, and if it wins, then the victory should ideally be credited to its cadre of countless, faceless karyakartas, who have worked so hard, for so long.