Strategic Missteps, Not Modi’s Declining Brand, Behind BJP’s Election Challenges

Newsrooms in Noida observed an eerie silence. Anchors had no answers, and poll pundits were dumbfounded, speechless, looking at the numbers being relayed on the television screens.

It was hard to believe back then, and it is hard to believe even now, but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) took a beating in ways that no one saw coming. It was almost as if the India Shining was repeating itself, two decades later.

While many almost assumed that a coup would push Narendra Modi out of power, or that the opposition may stitch up alliances and try to form the government — but nothing of that sort took place.

There was no pomp and show, sure, but the government was formed, Modi was sworn-in for the record third time and many ministers who held important portfolios in Modi 2.0 continued to hold the same in Modi 3.0. It was as if the panic meant nothing.

Subsequent 'analysis' of the results indicated that the caste factor did play a significant role and that the dependency on Ram Mandir to sweep Uttar Pradesh for the party was arrogance on its part was acknowledged to some degree.

In the aftermath of the 2024 Indian general elections, the narrative surrounding the BJP's performance has sparked intense debate.

While some critics are quick to suggest that the appeal of Brand Modi is on the decline, a closer examination reveals that this is far from the truth. Rather, it was the BJP's miscalculations and arithmetic mistakes that led to the party's reduced seat tally, not a waning of Narendra Modi's personal brand.

The BJP’s reduction in seats can be largely attributed to strategic and organisational errors rather than a decline in Modi’s popularity. In several key states, the party failed to forge effective alliances, misread the evolving caste dynamics or underestimated the appeal of regional players.

For instance, in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP underestimated the impact of the Samajwadi Party’s alliance with smaller caste-based parties, which managed to erode the BJP's previously solid vote bank.

If anything, the BJP’s over-reliance on national issues and Modi's charisma led them to neglect local concerns. 'Modi ki Guarantee' didn’t fully address the regional aspirations that played a crucial role in the election.

The opposition, particularly the Congress and regional parties like the Samajwadi Party, effectively capitalised on this by emphasising issues such as social justice, conducting a caste census, guarantee schemes, and localised welfare promises.

The 2024 election has highlighted the need for the BJP to recalibrate its strategy, particularly at the organisational level — instead of over-reliance on one man's brand.

While Modi's appeal remains, the party must drop its 'washing machine' image, fix the internal leadership issues and find better strategies for regional or state level play. It's a lot of work.