Tamil Nadu BJP's Biggest Weakness — Failure To Secure SC Votes?

With the Tamil Nadu Assembly election coming up in 2026, discussions about the prospects of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have begun in full swing.

A key topic of discussion is how the party can boost its vote share beyond the 11 percent it achieved in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

While the BJP did well to reach that figure, there remains a significant roadblock in securing an even higher vote share — getting the Scheduled Caste (SC) vote.

For many years now, the BJP's central leadership has invested in SC leader L Murugan despite his inability to make a sizable impact organisationally or electorally in his community, the Arunthathiyars. 

That is not his fault because, besides the tokenism of handing Murugan a berth in the union ministry, the party has done little to build strong roots and grow its support among SCs. 

The party, all things considered, faces a formidable challenge in being able to reach the SCs of Tamil Nadu — the powerful propaganda machinery of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). Both these parties have inherited many years of media support and a strong grassroots organisational strength. On top of that, Dalit organisations tend to be either pro-DMK or pro-AIADMK.

This challenge facing the Tamil Nadu BJP is also now the problem faced by state president K Annamalai. An analysis of his loss in Coimbatore shows that while he received good support in urban areas of the constituency, in areas where the SC votes mattered, he received a drubbing.

This is despite the dissatisfaction among Dalits against the DMK government — over its inability to find the culprits in Vengaivayal, the continuation of caste-based violence, and the murder of Bahujan Samaj Party leader K Armstrong. While this is a major handicap for the BJP electorally, what's worse is its absence from ideological discussions within and around the SC community.

The easy answer is to blame a century of Dravidian indoctrination, but the party still has the potential to change the situation on the ground. Before delving deeper, here’s a brief overview of the state’s SC population.

SCs Mainly Divided In Three Groups

The state's SC population primarily comprises three communities — Devendra Kula Vellalar (DKV), Arunthathiyar, and Parayar.

DKV is an umbrella term for seven sub-castes Devendrakulathan, Kalladi, Kudumban, Pallan, Pannadi, Kadaiyan and Vathiriyan. They were classified under one grouping in 2021.

While ‘Arunthathiyar’ by itself is a caste, it is also a grouping that encompasses a few other castes — Chakkiliyan, Madari, Madiga, Pagadai, Thoti, and Adi Andhra. (This article refers to the grouping).

Parayars are also known by the term ‘Adi-Dravida.’

While the main areas of DKV presence are southern Tamil Nadu and the delta region, Arunthathiyars are primarily found in western parts of Tamil Nadu. Parayars, who are present all over the state, are dominant in northern districts and have a good presence down to Cuddalore. The Arunthathiyars are unique because their mother tongue is Telugu.

SCs form 20 per cent of the state’s population as per the 2011 Census. But recent estimates by various political parties put the figure at 22-23 per cent. As a percentage of the total population, Parayars are the highest (11-13 per cent), followed by Devendra Kula Vellalars (8-10 per cent) and Arunthathiyars (3-4 per cent).

SC Vote Should Not Be Seen As A Monolith

Each SC community in Tamil Nadu, much like Uttar Pradesh where Jatavs largely remain loyal to Mayawati while non-Jatav SCs have shifted to other parties including the BJP, has distinct political preferences shaped by differences in their background and location.

A prominent BJP leader from southern Tamil Nadu, belonging to the DKV community, told this writer, "There is a difference in how each of them thinks. Even within DKV, someone from the south might vote differently from their counterparts in the delta. While they may all vote for the DMK, the reasons vary. It would be a mistake to lump them together and assume they voted similarly.”

Explaining the reason for the intra-community difference in voting preferences, he said that it was because DKVs in southern Tamil Nadu are mostly small landowners while those in the delta are largely landless labourers.

“Due to this difference, someone from the delta would be mainly voting for higher wages, whereas for those in the south, self-respect is more important,” he added.

The demand for higher payment was the reason for the Keezhvenmani massacre (near Nagapattinam) in 1968, in which 44 Dalits were burnt to death by the landlords and their henchmen.

“This is why communists have a good presence in the delta areas. They supported the struggle for better wages and working conditions. These days, their influence has reduced as youngsters have got attracted to Naam Tamilar Katchi of Seeman.”

These differences have meant that there is no such thing as ‘Dalit unity’ and thus there cannot be a ‘one-size-fits-all approach’ when it comes to garnering SC votes. Similarly, the BJP’s prospects with each of them vary. 

Parayars—The Backbone of The VCK

The only Dalit party with a pan-state presence is the VCK, led by Thirumavalavan, who has successfully built a strong vote bank among the Parayars. With the community's significant population in northern Tamil Nadu, the VCK's support is pivotal for securing seats in the region, making it a valuable asset to any alliance it joins.

Highlighting the community's electoral importance, Tada Periasamy, a VCK co-founder now with the AIADMK after serving as the BJP's SC Morcha head, remarked: "By my estimates, the community is a deciding factor in about 155 constituencies, with a population ranging from 25,000 to 1.5 lakh."

Highly Influenced By Dravidianism

Political commentators suggest that Thirumavalavan's ongoing success is rooted in the strong influence of Dravidian ideology and the conversion of many Parayars to Christianity. His 'anti-Sanatana' plank, thus, strikes a chord with them easily.

This is why the BJP finds it hard to draw support from the community. A party leader from the community said, "Many amongst our caste are open to eating beef, and do not see any issue with conversions. This is in complete contradiction to the BJP's position on these matters."

While the Parayar vote is the toughest to crack due to Thirumavalavan's stronghold, the next community we examine—the DKV—represents the party's best bet.

DKV Vote: Did BJP Lose An Opportunity Here?

After the reclassification of certain castes (names mentioned earlier) under the DKV umbrella in 2021, the BJP was received quite well by the community. The move was also held up as a successful example of the party’s social engineering in the state, i.e. an effort to move away from the tag of being a party of the upper castes, especially Brahmins.

According to political commentators, a sizable chunk of the DKV community voted for the BJP in the 2021 assembly elections out of gratitude to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

However, things changed in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Their support diminished, and in a notable incident, community members from over a hundred villages met the Congress candidate from Tirunelveli on the day PM Modi held a roadshow in the constituency.

The party lost at least two seats where the DKV vote played a significant role — Tenkasi and Tirunelveli. While the party had given the ticket for Tenkasi to B John Pandian, who belongs to the DKV community, it fielded its senior leader and sitting MLA, Nainar Nagendran, in Tirunelveli. Nagendran is from the Thevar community.

What changed between 2021 and 2024?

According to party leaders who wished to remain anonymous, there was a failure on two counts — not providing adequate representation and not standing by the community during times of difficulty.

One of them said, “The issue of representation started from the 2021 elections itself. None of the candidates put up by the BJP were from the community. After the election, the elevation of Murugan upset them as the Arunthathiyars had a lesser population. 

"Further, they have not been given meaningful positions in the party, either at the state level or as district and mandal presidents. Of the 66 party districts, only two have had district presidents from the DKV community, and one of them was removed. Also, in a constituency like Tenkasi, where the DKV community constitutes 22 per cent of the population, there is no one from the community on the core committee.

"Further, when community members were killed by people belonging to other castes, the top leadership of the BJP did not come here, or condemn the attack. Nagendran was expected to do that given he is an MLA from these parts.”

Calling the decision to field John Pandian a mistake, another leader said, “He was popular some years ago, but the community has already decided not to support him. A look at the number of votes his party Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam received when it contested independently in 2016 is enough to gauge his influence. They contested around 50 seats and garnered only about 28,000 votes in total.”

“It is not just about John Pandian. The same applies to Dr K Krishnasamy of Puthiya Tamizhagam as well. While their sway over the masses has waned, they continue to be given importance because of their past image."

Krishnasamy, who rose to prominence due to his leadership during caste clashes with the dominant Thevar community, was with the NDA in 2019. After last year's split between the AIADMK and the BJP, he chose to go with the AIADMK for the 2024 elections.

He too said that the DKVs were not happy with the BJP. “Many of us want our community to be removed from the SC list and put into the Most Backward Class (MBC) category. That has not happened.”

While this may portray an opportunity lost, community leaders this writer spoke with stated that the party can still make amends.

“Despite the prevailing dissatisfaction, it is this group that remains most receptive to the BJP's brand of politics. We worship the cow, consider the bull our friend, and maintain temples.”

The two communities—Parayars and DKVs—present starkly different pictures for the BJP. While the former is deeply entrenched in Dravidianism, the latter holds potential as a strong support base. With Arunthathiyars, the party finds itself in a more balanced, middle-ground situation.

Arunthathiyars—BJP's Next Best Hope

While a beginning has been made with Murugan's elevation, there is still a long way to go.

According to political observer Sivakumar, also known as 'Saffron Dalit' on X, the BJP’s strength in western Tamil Nadu, where a significant population of Arunthatiyars resides, could aid the party’s outreach efforts.

The community is regarded as the poorest of the three, with most being landless laborers. While they are largely aligned with the DMK now, this was not always the case.

Backing MGR, Changing Over To DMK And Flirting With Communism

Explaining how Arunthathiyars changed their political leanings over time, Sivakumar said: “During the times of M G Ramachandran (MGR), they supported the AIADMK. He was seen as the messiah of the poor. After his death, they started supporting the DMK because it filled vacancies, and gave land and houses. Later Karunanidhi provided the much talked about 3 per cent internal quota. That cemented their support for him.”

In between, a section of them also started supporting communists after being exposed to trade unions in the mills of Coimbatore and Tirupur. K Ramani, who represented Coimbatore East in the assembly, was one of the state’s longest-serving CPI (M) MLAs. 

Continuing further, Sivakumar said, 'In the case of Arunthathiyars as well as other SCs, their voting choices were influenced by whom their masters belonging to the dominant castes (mostly Naidus and Gounders) supported.

"Their support for the DMK is mainly due to legacy issues. The younger generation is more open to experimenting and some of them even went with Seeman but changed later due to his anti-Telugu stance. If the outreach is done well, they would be receptive to the BJP."

The ‘SC Versus SC’ And ‘SC Versus OBC’ Conundrum

Thus far, we’ve explored how each of the major SC communities votes and the factors influencing their decisions. However, the situation is more complicated, as it is not enough for the party to develop a strategy tailored solely to each community. 

This is due to two factors: the dissatisfaction of Parayars and Devendra Kula Vellalars with the 3 per cent quota allocated to Arunthathiyars, and the BJP's recent efforts to bring dominant OBC castes like the Kongu Vellalar Gounders (KVG), Thevars, and Vanniyars into its fold. 

While resolving the former may be beyond the BJP's control, taking a neutral stance on it that does not alienate any of the communities would be beneficial. Managing the latter, however, will be more challenging, as these influential castes have historically had a strained relationship with the SC communities in certain areas.

While the KVGs are concentrated in the same areas as Arunthathiyars, the Thevars are found in areas with significant DKV populations. Vanniyars are prominent in northern regions, where Parayars are also prevalent.

A prime example of this complexity is the VCK and the Vanniyar outfit Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which, despite both revering EV Ramasamy, do not align in the same political alliance due to the history of caste clashes between the Vanniyars and Parayars.

Thus, the party faces the challenge of walking a tightrope, balancing the need to court these communities simultaneously. 

An Outreach Programme Is The Need Of The Hour

Navigating this challenge depends on two key factors—effective messaging and strong leadership. Overcoming the entrenched Dravidian ideology, however, would be a significant hurdle.

Periasamy weighed in, stating, “Almost all notable Dalit leaders have been of the Dravidian mindset—whether it is Iyothee Das Panditar or Rettamalai Srinivasan. For years, they’ve been told the BJP is an upper-caste party that oppresses Dalits. Overcoming this perception will take time.”

He believes the solution lies in a massive outreach effort by the BJP to SCs, emphasising that they are also Hindus. “Such a programme hasn’t been implemented yet. During my time in the party, I tried to take the initiative, but there wasn’t much progress,” he added.

Looking Beyond Murugan: Need For A Popular And Relatable Face

As mentioned earlier, strong leadership is crucial for the party to effectively execute its strategy. If the leader is popular, the task becomes easier. While the party does have several SC leaders from different communities, what it lacks is a significant recall value among the masses.

Periasamy emphasizes this point: "They need to bring in popular faces that the masses can relate to. While I don’t want to make this about myself or Murugan, the truth is that not many people knew him before he became state president or minister. The party chose to promote him instead of someone like me, who has contacts across party lines and is well-known to the people. I am the kind of person that Dalits would approach, even if they do not like the BJP. Murugan also doesn’t position himself as a leader of the Arunthathiyars as much as he should have.”

Sivakumar concurs, saying, "This is absolutely true. Murugan’s elevation as a Union minister—the first for the community since independence—should have been better highlighted. What the BJP has done for Arunthathiyars is unprecedented compared to any other party."

Ultimately, whether or not the BJP has the electoral vision to capitalise on this, allowing the DMK and others to dominate the SC vote is harmful to Hindu interests in the long term.

The BJP still has time to make inroads and increase its vote share among SCs. To achieve this, the party must stand by the community in times of difficulty, ensure greater representation, capitalise on the dissatisfaction with the DMK, and effectively counter its propaganda.

If the party manages to do this, the 2026 elections could prove much more successful than those of 2024.