Telangana Election Results Explained: Part-1

In the run-up to the Telangana assembly elections, this writer made two observations. First, it was doubtful if the Congress could rustle up enough electoral magic to beat the BRS on its own steam; but, secondly, if the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) vote share touched double digits, “it will lead to a number of unpredictable three-way contests.”

A result map below shows that the BRS has largely shrunk to the region around Hyderabad, plus pockets in the north of the state.

It has also done very well in reserved seats. The Congress won 14 of 19 Scheduled Caste seats and 9 of 12 seats reserved for Scheduled tribes. Combined, it means that over a third of their wins are from the reserved category.

Nonetheless, it is difficult to emphatically say that Congress defeated the BRS outright because that is not exactly how the vote swings occurred.

On the other hand, the Congress gained more from the ‘Others’. This is a mixture of the remnant Telugu Desam (TDP) vote, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), whatever vote was held on to by YS Sharmila, Andhra Chief Minister YS Jaganmohan Reddy’s sister, and sundry independents.

A clear shift of the Muslim vote from the BRS to the Congress is also seen in the west and the north, which only added to the BRS’ woes, after having bled votes to the BJP. But the Muslims of Hyderabad have continued to vote for their own party, the AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi, winning all seven assembly seats where they are in a majority.

Until then, we can make two points: one, that the BRS is down but not yet out; and, two, that this churn will both have an impact at the national level as the Congress negotiates seats with its dotted coalition, and also make for a fascinating Lok Sabha contest in Telangana next year.