The Push-Pull Of PM Modi's Outreach To Christians In Kerala

In March 2023, Prime Minister Narendra Modi commenced a pointed outreach to the Christians of Kerala, after the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) successes in assembly elections, to the Christian majority states of Nagaland and Meghalaya.

He hailed the electorates of these states for junking an anti-minority label foisted upon the BJP by the secular parties; for seeing through the divisive narrative; for rejecting the staid, baseless bromides of minority victimhood; and, for rising above traditional shackles of religious and racial identity, to vote for the BJP.

Per Prime Minister Modi, this growing tendency for Christians to vote for the BJP was a trend which began with his party’s wins in Christian-dominant seats of Goa, which had now spread to the North East’s Christian provinces, and would, tomorrow, allow the BJP to form a coalition government in Kerala.

As expected, mainstream media and the secular parties reacted with frenzied alarm, since minorities voting for the BJP is their worst nightmare: their narratives of an evil, minority-hating BJP would be finally, and permanently, shattered; and their politics, so carefully crafted around religious vote-banking, would sink into electoral doom.

And the worst part for those who survive on identity politics is that Modi is right. Christians have started to vote for the BJP in incrementally larger numbers, including in Kerala.

Thus, the question to be asked is: will Modi’s open outreach to the Christians of Kerala work? The reason we must ask this is because, if it does work, then that is the end of secularism in India.

There is a social and a political background to Modi’s move in Kerala.

Traditionally, the Christians of Kerala have always been fiercely nationalistic since they do not subscribe to a two-nation theory.

Thousands fill the ranks of the civil and military services, and have proudly risen to the very top, through merit and dedication to the national cause. There is no conflict between God and country for them.

While they may not yet vote for the BJP en masse, the stigma which the Muslim voter is forced to display for the BJP (at the behest of its aristocracy and spiritual leaders), is relatively less amongst the Christians of Kerala.

Christian politicians have allied with the BJP in the past, and a growing number of prominent Christians now routinely contest assembly and general elections on a BJP ticket.

One example is Jacob Thomas, former Director General of Police, who contested Irinjalakuda assembly constituency, in old Cochin state, on a BJP ticket in the 2021 elections. He came third, polling 22 per cent in an area where the Christian population is around 40 per cent.

A most touching part of his campaign was the many aged Nair matriarchs who went out to canvass votes for Thomas, dressed in their finest, crispest, whitest, Kerala sarees.

This is what Modi wants to propel forward. An early response to his outreach came from Arch Bishop Mar Joseph Pamplany, of the Thalassery diocese in north Kerala.

Playing some deft rubber politics, Pamplany said that a BJP representative could get elected if the central government raised the minimum support price of rubber to Rs 300 per kilogram.

The backlash to that statement from the ruling Communist party was so fierce, that the Arch Bishop was eventually forced to water down his words.

After all, Pinarayi Vijayan won a second term in 2021 only on the back of the Christian vote, which he got when the Kerala Congress, the party of Christians in Kerala, left the Congress-led coalition to join the Marxists in 2020.

Nonetheless, three principal points were reiterated by the Pamplany imbroglio:

• one, that the Church does not really look upon the BJP with any genuine disfavour or alarm;

In early April, Anil Anthony, son of veteran heavyweight Congress leader AK Anthony, left the Congress to join the BJP. Whether this was a result of Modi’s overture, or of the son’s disenchantment with career options within the Congress following his father’s semi-retirement from politics, or a reflection of the party’s dwindling prospects in the state, it was a start.

Modi followed up on his March outreach with a two-day visit to Kerala in late April. He met the religious heads of most Christian denominations in the state.

Apart from a few photographs, and positive statements about the Prime Minister by sect heads, not much else made its way out of the meeting.

But that didn’t deter provincial mainstream media and the secular parties from either crowing that the outreach was a flop, or to issue pedestrian warnings along the lines of ‘a fox can never guard a chicken’.

And there matters stood for a while until violence erupted in Manipur the next month.

In a flash, the Marxists, the Congress, and mainstream media went into overdrive. A distant fault line with no specific religious connotations or causality, and no similarity to Hindu-Muslim riots, was now presented as a sinister anti-Christian move to viewers on prime time every night. 

Priests, panellists, and politicians, all gleefully used the opportunity to rebut Modi’s outreach; a threat to secularism had been temporarily averted courtesy the miseries of Manipur.

This is the mountain which Modi and the BJP have to climb. Can they do it?

One reason why they will struggle is, as shown above, the formidability of narratives and a near-monopoly over their dissemination to the people of Kerala.

Objective media houses can be counted on one finger of one hand. So much so that representatives of the BJP are either not invited to participate in panel discussions, or often shouted down by anchors when making good points.

A second reason is that the Congress will go to any extent to win back the Christian vote.

Ernakulam MP Hibi Eden and Idukki MP Dean Kuriakose visited Manipur prior to Rahul Gandhi’s visit in June. According to Eden, the two MPs posed as teachers, and this is what he reported to a public discussion held at the Kerala Catholic Bishops’ Council centre in Kochi: “The Manipur violence… is part of the RSS’ fundamental agenda to wipe out Christian communities from the regions where they are strong”.

A third problem is structural. Being a remittance economy, Keralites are not dependent on the state for their earnings. Unlike Goa, Nagaland, or Meghalaya, where electorates have finally realised the tremendous benefits of being part of the India story, there is no similar incentive in Kerala, save the purchase of electricity and essential goods.

Further, the Christian community drives much of the state’s economic activity, and has flourished irrespective of politics by deftly managing both principal coalitions.

That is why, and how, the state finance minister is more often than not a Christian, whether the government is of the Communists or the Congress. 

In that sense, the Christian community’s prosperity is as much a product of the system as in spite of it. As a result, it becomes that much less attractive for people to shift allegiances, and that much more difficult for the BJP to force a political breach.

Fourth, it is the same with development.

While schemes like ‘Beti padao beti bachao’ have been a grand success in most of India, they find little resonance in a state which achieved full literacy many decades ago.

Ironically, Kerala’s exceedingly high Human Development Index metrics, already comparable in the 1980s to parts of Europe, has resulted in a contentment which act as a deterrent to change. Simply put: does Kerala really need the BJP?

A fifth reason is the Church.

Its stranglehold over the Christian laity comes in two forms which are intertwined – ecumenical and financial.

Through its vast global networks, the Church offers many avenues for employment abroad, especially in the West. For example, thousands of Malayalee Christians live and earn in Italy, sending money back home every month.

The trade-off is obedience. That is why an Arch Bishop can confidently say that he will get the Christian vote for the BJP if it raises the purchase price of rubber.

Yet, despite the challenge being so daunting, all is not lost for the BJP.

One, Kerala is bankrupt. The finances of the state have been driven to such horrific ruin by successive governments, who placed reckless welfarism before revenue, that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the state government to provide basic services.

This is a golden opportunity for the BJP to present an economic plan which brings both investment and growth to the state. This, more than anything else, would attract the goodwill of all communities.

The party must not forget history: Hindus and Christians allied to oust the Communists through a ‘Vimochana Samaram’ in the 1950s because their spiritual and economic interests were temporarily aligned. If it happened once, it can happen again.

Two, the Christians of Kerala are presently without a tall leader who commands pan-state appeal. KM Mani passed away in 2019. AK Anthony has withdrawn from active politics. And former chief minister, Oommen Chandy passed away last week. 

It is a unique situation which hasn’t manifested itself in the state’s politics before. This presents a piquant occasion for the BJP to groom community leaders, naturally with the blessings of the Church.

Third, unlike the Moplahs, Malayalee Christians have no history or tradition of cultural separatism. So, the BJP needs to look past the ‘Beef bravado’ omnipresent on social media, since this is but a part of the broader anti-BJP narrative, if their outreach is to be successful.

Thus, in conclusion, if Modi’s outreach to the Christians of Kerala is to be moderately successful, the BJP will have to formulate an economic plan which makes it appear as a credible party of governance for the state, enter into an accord with the Church which translates into votes on the ground, and cultivate a leadership which can capitalise on some favourable conditions which do exist.

If it fails to do that, the average Christian voter will not be suitably motivated to upset the prevailing political status quo, and the outreach will flounder.