Why Jharkhand Might Be A Closer Contest Than You Thought

A few weeks ago, analysts were claiming with certainty that Jharkhand is an easy frontier to conquer for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). This was despite the fact that Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) had swept tribal seats in the Lok Sabha election.

However, the exit polls have surprised many. Three out of the eight top poll agencies, including Axis My India, are projecting a victory for the Indian National Democratic Inclusive (INDI) Alliance. One of the polls is suggesting a hung assembly.

When it comes to analysing Jharkhand’s electoral prospects, drawing conclusions from macro perspectives doesn’t often pay off. Although it has in the past, now there are too many regional discontents to view the state through a single analytical lens.

For instance, in the Santhal Pargana region, the growing inequality between Santhals and the other tribes is not something any party thought to capitalise on.

Similarly, in areas close to Bihar and West Bengal, locals’ discontent against those who are seen as outsiders is emerging as a strong electoral issue.

Jairam Mahato’s rise is attributed to this factor. Mahato is standing against nearly 35 per cent of Jharkhand’s population essentially because, according to him, their forefathers did not come to Jharkhand before 1932.

Mahato’s rise in the North Chotanagpur division of Jharkhand has caused some headaches for the NDA. This division comprises Bokaro, Chatra, Dhanbad, Giridih, Hazaribagh, Koderma, and Ramgarh districts and is often referred to as the coalanchal region.

The North Chotanagpur division has the highest density of unreserved seats in the state and is also relatively more prosperous. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) pro-development reputation has helped it garner goodwill here.

However, the failure to curtail the exploitation of labourers has given rise to Mahato, whose appeal for jobs is pulling crowds and votes in large numbers. If not a definitive winner, Mahato is certain to come through as a vote-cutter on at least 25 seats.

In the nearby Palamu region, consisting of Palamu, Garhwa, and Latehar, the BJP is in a strong position compared to 2019 — all thanks to the NDA coalition remaining intact.

The INDI Alliance is trying to wrestle Palamu with the help of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) since Yadavs are in significant numbers in the region.

Most importantly, JMM carries a massive emotional card in the form of ‘tribal dignity’ after Hemant Soren’s arrest in a corruption case.

The BJP’s constant honking about demographic change has brought attention to the increasing Muslim (mainly Bangladeshi) population here. However, on the ground, its appeal is limited to educated tribals.

The relatively less educated stay (due to a lack of options) in a symbiotic setup with outsiders, and the BJP runs the risk of being painted as anti-tribal along with anti-Muslim for this reason.

However, the party has given tickets to more educated tribals than before and is expecting them to bring home the fruits of their campaigns.

In Kolhan division, consisting of East Singhbhum, Seraikela Kharsawan, and West Singhbhum, the BJP-led NDA has thrown heavyweights into the electoral battle. The campaign here is mainly led by JMM turncoat Champai Soren and his son Babulal Soren.

Purnima Das Sahu, former chief minister Raghubar Das’ daughter-in-law; Saryu Roy, the man who beat Raghubar Das; and Madhu Koda’s wife, Geeta Koda, are some other high-profile figures deployed in the region.

But the problem for the BJP is that tribals here generally look for symbols rather than names. Secondly, Champai Soren came to the BJP at a time when he was struggling in his own den, which is why there is lingering doubt over his effectiveness in drawing votes.

Despite that, the BJP is expected to open its account here due to the sheer work it has put into this region.

In South Chotanagpur division, colloquially called the Ranchi division, comprising Gumla, Khunti, Lohardaga, Ranchi, and Simdega, the Christian population (almost all tribals) is high. Sixty per cent of the state’s Christian people are located in this area alone. Simdega is, in fact, a Christian-majority district.

The Congress becomes an important player here because of its ability to attract Christian votes. Its dominance here is a good reason for why the party is a major force in the INDI Alliance. The Congress is expected to repeat its magic here, while the BJP will bank on NDA’s unity to counter it.

Local discontent, though, is a major factor in Jharkhand. The state's voters are fed up with conventional politics. They would prefer a revolutionary outcome. Currently, that is the only unifying theme in Jharkhand as anti-incumbency is a factor on 85-90 per cent of the seats, regardless of whether a member of the legislative assembly (MLA) is from the NDA or INDI Alliance.