Can OPS Survive The Machinations Of The ‘Mannargudi Mafia’?

It is increasingly clear that the anticipated exodus of ADMK MLAs, currently holed up in an upscale resort on the outskirts of Chennai, to the O. Panneerselvam (OPS) camp has not materialised. If this televised drama for wrestling control over the party and government continues for few more days, there will be no clear winners within the ADMK and mass public revulsion will fritter away the enormous goodwill that OPS has garnered thus far.

Why is OPS camp still struggling to find support within the legislative wing of ADMK, despite the fact that MLAs may well be aware of the public anger against V K Sasikala and her cronies?

Contrary to the predictions that an adverse judicial verdict will ensure their complete collapse, Sasikala and the Mannargudi Mafia have shown no signs of folding up quickly. They have in fact mounted a strong rear-guard action. This looks like a fight to finish and not a meek surrender.

Here are the machinations that Mannargudi Mafia is up to:

1. Controlling the party - In a brazen attempt to solidify her stranglehold over the party apparatus, Sasikala today appointed two members of her household to key positions in the ADMK’s organisational scheme of things. It is obvious that she trusts none but her householders for exercising control over the party. Two of her relatives appointed by Sasikala, T V Dinakaran and S Venkatesh, are regarded as shady backdoor operators notorious for their wheeling-dealing. Despite Sasikala's protection and patronage, they had incurred the wrath of Jayalalithaa, who sacked them from the party a few years ago. Jaya had also commandeered her party cadres not to maintain any contacts with them.

Buzz among ADMK circles is that its parliamentary party leader M Thamidurai is in talks with Congress high command to ensure 'A Class' prison facilities for Sasikala in exchange for the huge contingent of party MPs collaborating with the Congress-led opposition. Sasikala has still not given up hopes of controlling the party even while being lodged in Parappana Agrahara.

2. Poison Pill Strategy - Sasikala, it appears is also not shy of adopting a poison pill strategy to prevent the takeover by the OPS camp. Even engineering an implosion of ADMK may be a possible choice that they could exercise if pushed to the wall. She has already played up the Thevar- Gounder fault line by propping up a rather insipid Gounder candidate as her replacement. The caste fault lines within the party have the potential to assume ugly proportions.

3. Natarajan's moves - It was a carefully cultivated myth that Natarajan, the allegedly estranged husband of Sasikala, is a persona non-granta in the ADMK schemen. It may be possible that a domestic spat over the presence of an 'other woman' in his life caused Natarjan's temporary ouster, but he is now back in the thick of things, scheming and strategising. Natarajan has nurtured close ties with fringe Tamil extremist groups and far left cultural organisations that hide sinister separatist plans under a benign public agenda. Dravida Kazhagam leader Veermani is a good friend of Natarajan reflected by his frequent statements supporting Sasikala's ascension. A key member and advisor of Sasikala, Divakaran, made an incendiary speech threatening to play the Tamil race card.

It is alleged that some of the disturbance during the Jallikattu protests was engineered by fringe groups at the behest of Mannargudi Mafia to discredit OPS. Political observers in TN believe that resorting to such a game-plan of using street violence cannot be ruled out.

4. Clout over police and intelligence apparatus - It is also well known that the Sasikala family played a key role in police and bureaucratic appointments. Their cronies, mostly drawn from their own caste, have been placed in strategic positions in police, intelligence and revenue departments. During his short stint as chief minister, OPS had to not only reckon with his own cabinet colleagues who were determined to undermine him but also the non-cooperative babudom infested with Sasikala cronies and beholden to Mannargudi Mafia. That he still managed to create a good impression go to his great credit.

It has been insinuated that a planned police operation to rescue the MLAs from 'captivity' was botched up due to non-co-operation of key cops who owed allegiance to the Sasikala camp. OPS has been attempting to change key police personnel to address this situation.

5. Exploiting 'OPS is a junior' feeling - More than half a dozen MLAs in ADMK are senior to OPS. Some of them registered their first victory in as early as the 1980 elections and have worked with M.G. Ramachandran. Some of them may be feeling that OPS is a usurper who came into the scene much later yet walked away with much more than he deserved. This might be one of the reasons they may have decided to stay put with Sasikala's camp. Sasikala camp has been stoking their ambitions well. However, with elevation of Edappadi Palaniswami, sustainability of these tactics may not be possible.

Unless something dramatic happens in the next 24 to 48 hours, odds are overwhelmingly stacked against OPS and the state should brace itself up for an extended period of instability.