Caste, Class And Gender: How The Muslim Vote In #UP2017 Is Getting Divided 

Muslim voting behavior is always a matter of curiosity to some and concern to others. But one thing has been consistent in their electoral behaviour: they usually vote a party that is best suited to defeat the BJP. That is because of fuelling anti-BJP, anti-RSS and anti-hindutva psyche among Muslims for which BJP-RSS and self-proclaimed secular parties both might be responsible. Is there any change in that psyche now?

I think there is. For that change, again, both Muslims and BJP-RSS are responsible. Let us enquire how.

Two, Muslims are usually considered a homogenized community, voting en bloc. But, Muslim society is heterogeneous. There are several sects, castes and sub-castes which are divided along class lines too. The ashraf (upper-caste) Muslims have exploited ajlaf (backward-caste) and arzal (dalit) Muslims in the name of Islam by showing fear of BJP and RSS. The Pasmanda Muslim movement is tearing that homogeneity apart and is encouraging different Muslim denominations to take autonomous political trajectories.

Three, some neo-rich Muslims, especially from the Pasmanda clan, are nursing political aspirations. As most ‘secular’ parties have ‘no vacancy’ because of ashraf dominance, BJP becomes the only choice of such Muslims for political empowerment.

While the SP-Congress alliance and BSP’s Dalit-Muslim coalition may still be a greater beneficiary of Muslim votes, the possibility of a small Muslim shift to BJP may not be ruled out. When Modi was projected as anti-Muslim in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP still enhanced its Muslim vote share from 3 per cent in 2007 and 7 per cent in 2012 to 10 per cent in 2014. During last three years, BJP and Muslims have come closer which can reflect in small accretion in party’s Muslim votes. If that happens, we may see strange results on 11 March 2017 when the ballots are counted.