Congress And Its Fear Of Rahul 

This might seem an anomaly, but don’t confuse it with a paradox: it is the Congress party which is most dubious about Rahul Gandhi’s debatable talents. That is why, for at least seven years now, it has been unable to anoint the heir into a monarch. Heaven knows it has tried. But each time, Congress leaders freeze on the edge of a decision, fearful that this irrevocable step across the Rubicon will end in calamity.

The first offer to Rahul Gandhi was made, gracefully enough, by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh when, a little after his famous re-election in 2009, he said he would be happy to step aside for a successor should the party want one. The identity of this successor was never a mystery; in a dynasty an alternative can only rule as a caretaker till such time as the heir matures. But this only leads us to the next quandary: what if the heir never looks or sounds mature enough? 2009 was clearly too early. Is 2016 already too late? The uncertainty and unease within Congress is becoming viral.

The only hope is that some fortuitous political circumstance, like a regional electoral victory, will create the warm glow through which the party might be able to smuggle Rahul Gandhi on to the throne. This hope too has ancestry.

Well, young Akhilesh Yadav burst that bubble in 2012; but Rahul Gandhi nevertheless took position at the vanguard in 2014. One wonders if Congress leaders still have private nightmares about their presumptive leader’s campaign in the last general election. How can a person who does not possess the knowledge, skills or presence of mind to face a television anchor, ever face the nation?

Why, then, is Congress reluctance to make Rahul Gandhi party president an anomaly but not a paradox? The answer is logical: Congress has most to lose from failure. A sixth sense holds Congress back. So far, the party is only being battered because of Rahul Gandhi’s mistakes; it could disappear if Mrs Sonia Gandhi were not present as implicit, and occasionally explicit, check. This is not a secret. Senior leaders like Amarinder Singh in Punjab have made it clear enough, although they couch it in polite enough language.

Privately, Congress leaders fear that the party could split were Rahul Gandhi to be given total charge. They have evidence. It was not defeat that persuaded many regional leaders in the North East or Uttarakhand to leave Congress; were that the case they would have said goodbye in 2014. They were literally driven away by Rahul Gandhi’s inexplicable behaviour. Perhaps this is why, very recently, the Bengal Congress forced newly elected MLAs to take an oath of allegiance to Mrs Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi even before they took an oath upon the Constitution of India.

The most curious feature of Congress tactics in the last two years is surely the decision to emulate Arvind Kejriwal, and bookend all activity with unremitting obstructionism on one side and dubious self-congratulation on the other. Cacophony is not protest. The reduction of Parliament to a slogan-rumpus stall is hardly the best advertisement for democracy. The voter is watching, and taking action. Perhaps after the annihilation in Assam, defeat in Kerala, and implosion in Bengal and Tamil Nadu, Congress will realise how counter-productive such ill-conceived tactics have become. Even as an ally, Congress has become toxic. DMK would have done far better had it fought alone, or given the 41 seats allotted for Congress to other allies. Congress became a drag on IUML in Kerala. In Bengal, the Left cadre punished their leaders for compromising with Congress. Congress is now viewed as irresponsible; as a party determined to take revenge upon voters by sabotaging economic growth.

This will curtail chances of Congress revival in those regions where anti-incumbency is beginning to affect other political forces. Five years ago Uttar Pradesh was meant to be the curve that launched Rahul Gandhi, possibly at ‘Jupiter velocity’, into the stratosphere. If Congress had managed its current affairs better, UP in 2017 could have been another chance. But both statistical and anecdotal evidence suggest that the second opportunity has been squandered. Congress is swamped out of play.

Those who scream murder tend to forget that suicide is equally fatal.