Congress Back In The Game, But BJP Hasn’t Quite Lost It

The headlines at 10.30 am, when counting trends in most constituencies are clearly visible, suggest that the Congress is sweeping Chhattisgarh and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) Telangana, but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is neck-and-neck with Congress in Madhya Pradesh, and about to lose in Rajasthan. Congress has been wiped out in Mizoram by BJP’s Nationals Democratic Alliance (NDA) partner Mizo National Front (MNF).

The most surprising result is Chhattisgarh, where conventional wisdom suggested that the Mayawati-Ajit Jogi alliance would eat into the anti-BJP vote, helping Raman Singh; but the results show that the voter did not buy this cynical bid to undercut the Congress, and swung decisively in favour of that party. Raman Singh himself seemed headed for defeat.

But step away from Chhattisgarh, and the broad takeout for the BJP is not so bad. Reason: despite high levels of anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the party has put up a tough fight in both states. This, and the TRS’s excellent showing in Telangana, where it has swept the polls, will give it the possibility of conscripting this party into a post-2019 NDA if the BJP and allies fall seriously short of a majority in the next Lok Sabha. The BJP’s strong showing in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh also means that when the Lok Sabha polls pit Narendra Modi against the rest, it can do much better than its assembly showing.

Viewed from the Congress side, the gains in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh indicate that it is back in the reckoning in the Hindi heartland, but this raises obvious questions at the heart of the heartland – Uttar Pradesh. Neither Mayawati not the Samajwadi Party will be able to deny it more seats, which will have to come at their cost. There is a lot of heartburn ahead for the Mahagathbandhan.

The BSP, despite playing spoiler in Chhattisgarh, managed to get some seats along with Jogi in the state, and also in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. This shows that Mayawati has established the reality of her small vote bank as vital in the case of keenly-fought elections. Mayawati cannot be unhappy with this part of the result.

But, in a different way, the Congress is a big loser in Telangana, where it not only lost seats, but its Mahakutami with Telugu Desam crashed to defeat. This means that even in Andhra Pradesh, this tieup may end up playing second fiddle to the YSR Congress. This again means that the BJP will have another potential partner for a post-2019 NDA if it falls short.

The trends could still change, but while the Congress should be reasonably happy if not cock-a-hoop, the BJP can console itself that it can still snatch back something in 2019 when Modi is the issue.