Explained: The Significance Of The BJP Beating Stiff Odds To Win Tripura

The BJP’s victory in Tripura, though by a narrow margin, is a significant one. That’s because it had to battle stiff odds, including considerable anti-incumbency and a combined opposition. 

The BJP had to face the Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (Tipra), popularly called the Tipra Motha, led by the charismatic royal scion Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma, that emerged as a strong force in the tribal belt. 

The CPI(M)-led Left Front and the Congress entered into an alliance with the only agenda of unseating the BJP from power. The alliance created quite a buzz and mounted a spirited challenge to the saffron party. 

The Tipra Motha was widely perceived to have been propped up by the CPI(M) to take on and defeat the BJP and its tribal ally--the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPFT)--in the tribal areas. The tribals are a deciding factor in 24 of the 60 Assembly seats in the state. 

The fact that the BJP overcame the challenge posed by the Left-Congress combine and the Tipra Motha, and soundly beat anti-incumbency, is no mean feat. 

A preliminary analysis of the results shows that the BJP’s vote share declined by a small 4.5 per cent as compared to its performance in the 2018 Assembly elections. The BJP’s vote share in 2018 was 43.59 per cent; the Election Commission’s preliminary figures show that this time, the figure stood at 39 per cent. 

The BJP had won 36 seats in 2018; it has won 32 this time. But the total number of votes it polled has remained more or less static. 

This indicates that despite the twin onslaught by the Left-Congress on the one hand and the Tipra Motha on the other, it has managed to hold on to its vote base. The opposition, which had joined forces, could not dent the BJP’s support base. 

The BJP’s tribal ally, the IPFT, however, fared badly. It had won eight seats in 2018 with a vote share of 7.38 per cent. This time, its tally stood at one and its vote share at 1.3 per cent. 

The IPFT’s loss was the Tipra Motha’s gain. The new party, which captured the imagination of the tribals with its aggressive advocacy of a separate state of ‘Greater Tipraland’ comprising the tribal areas of the neighbouring states of Assam and Mizoram and the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) of Bangladesh, won 13 seats and a vote share of 22.1 per cent. 

The CPI(M) was the largest loser in the electoral battle this time. It got hoisted by its own petard. That’s because the Motha, which it propped up to defeat the BJP in the tribal belt, ate into the Marxist vote bank. And its alliance with the Congress also did not work in its favour: while CPI(M) votes got transferred to the Congress, the Congress votes did not. 

As a result, the CPI(M)’s seat tally came down from 16 in 2018 to 11 this time. And its vote share declined considerably from 42.22 per cent five years ago to 24.6 per cent this time. 

The Congress gained at the expense of its ally (CPI-M) and saw its vote share increase from a miniscule 1.79 per cent in 2018 to 8.46 percent this time. From drawing a blank in 2018, it won three seats this time. 

The CPI(M)’s game plan to defeat the BJP, thus, seems to have fallen flat on its face. And the Marxists have, it turns out, suffered the most. 

The BJP had to face a spirited campaign by the Left-Congress combine that campaigned aggressively against the saffron party. 

CPI(M) cadres, who had been lying dormant these past five years after the crushing defeat inflicted on their party by the BJP in 2018, resurrected themselves and went on the offensive, thus leading to many ugly clashes with BJP karyakartas. 

Violence was reported from many parts of the state in the run-up to the elections. 

The BJP had also faced considerable anti-incumbency due to the lacklustre performance of its earlier chief minister Biplab Kumar Deb. Deb was, wisely, replaced by the soft-spoken Manik Saha in May 2022. 

To be fair, a lot of the developmental projects and welfare measures that were initiated or were in the pipeline suffered because of the Covid-induced pandemic and its long shutdowns and disruptions. 

But over the last 1.5 years, the BJP government in the state got its act together and doubled down on its development agenda. Roads and bridges were constructed at a frenetic pace and Tripura emerged as the launchpad for India’s intended forays into Southeast Asia. 

A number of connectivity projects through Bangladesh have been initiated over the last 1.5 years. The BJP’s ‘HIRA’ (highways, internet, roads and airways) agenda, and the promises it holds of obliterating the disadvantage of land-lockedness that the state has suffered from for all these decades, impressed the electorate. 

The BJP’s promise of ushering in more development in Tripura and fast-tracking ongoing projects, and the obvious advantages of the ‘double-engine sarkar’, seemed to have resonated with the people of Tripura. 

Also, the campaigning by Prime Minister Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath, boosted the party’s prospects. Their campaigns helped the BJP beat whatever remained of anti-incumbency in the final stages of electioneering. 

Another factor that ultimately worked in favour of the BJP was the rise of the Tipra Motha and the Motha’s covert links with the CPI(M) that became evident when Pradyot Deb Barma consistently refrained from criticising the CPI(M) and trained his guns only on the BJP. That led to a counter-consolidation of Bengali Hindus in favour of the BJP. 

But for the BJP, it was a hard fought election. It had to face the might of the combined opposition as well as the emergence of a popular party that seriously threatened its support among the tribals. 

To the BJP’s credit, it not only overcame these challenges convincingly, but has managed to leave the Opposition in a state of disarray. The alliance between the Left and the Congress may not continue, given the fact that the CPI(M) is angry with the Congress for non-transference of its votes to the Left. 

The Tipra Motha also would want the Left-Congress alliance to break because that would make it the largest opposition party with 13 MLAs. And that will ensure that one of its 13 MLAs gets the coveted post of leader of opposition. 

But the Motha itself faces an uncertain future. Many of its newly-elected legislators are in touch with the BJP and that has created a lot of suspicion and intrigues within the party. There is no guarantee that Deb Barma will be able to hold his MLAs together. 

Political analysts say there will be realignments in Tripura over the next one year. And that will work to the BJP’s advantage. The BJP is also planning a lot of measures to win back the confidence of the tribals through social engineering. 

All in all, Tripura is a state to watch out for.