Odisha Politics: Task Cut Out For BJD As BJP Rises To The Patnaik Challenge

Many years before Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke about a Congress-mukt Bharat, Odisha dared to dream about it. It is the state where the downfall of India’s Grand Old Party actually began.

In the early 1960s, Swatantra Party cemented its position in the state and emerged as the main opposition to the Congress. In 1971, it formed the state government with Odisha Jana Congress for a brief period of two years. And for about two decades after that, Congress ruled the state without any strong opposition, with only Biju Patnaik providing some sort of opposition. Biju-led Janata Dal grabbed power twice in the state. In 1997, Naveen Patnaik formed the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) by breaking away from the parent Janata Dal, and has since dominated the state’s politics.

In the year 2000, the BJD formed the government in the state for the first time. This came riding on the back of extreme corruption, perceived arrogance and lawlessness of the previous Congress regime. The very poor handling of the relief-and-rescue operations after the Super Cyclone in 1999 by the Giridhar-Gomang-led Congress was the final nail in the coffin. Congress just did not recover from that drubbing, and lack of a strong state leader didn’t help them either.

In the 2012 panchayat polls, BJD won 651 seats (around 77 per cent) of the total 851 Zila Parishad (ZP) seats. Congress stood second with 126 while the BJP had to be content with just 36 seats. The BJD continued with the same impressive performance during the assembly elections, winning 117 of 147 (around 79 per cent of the total).

All this changed in the just-concluded Odisha Panchayat polls. Some 850-odd Zila Parishad seats were up for grabs in 30 districts. The final official counting concluded on 25 February, and the results show that the BJP has made quite a significant addition to its numbers. The picture shows the extent of BJP’s growth in Odisha.

Many states within a state

Odisha, like many states in India, has distinct sub-regions, and many a time these sub-regions are at loggerheads with each other on their claim to resources and cultural issues. Coastal Odisha, where the big cities lie, is the most prosperous part of the state.

The recent BJP surge in the panchayat polls presents an interesting picture when divided by the regions.

The BJP has made significant inroads in the Kosala region winning more than 50 per cent of the seats. BJD has maintained its stronghold in the coastal and southern belt, though the BJP has emerged as the key challenger. Congress has been restricted to just three districts – Rayagada, Gajapati and Jharsuguda. In Jharsuguda, Congress won mainly because of the goodwill of Congress leader and Member of Legislative Assembly Nabakishore Das. In the districts adjoining Chattisgarh and Jharkhand, where the Chief Ministers were roped in to extensively campaign for the party, the BJP has done exceedingly well.

Pockets of BJP surge

Drilling down further at the district level, it appears that the BJP has indeed strengthened its electoral fortunes across the state. Given its relatively sharp regional win distribution, such a vote pattern can impact BJD in both the assembly and the Lok Sabha elections.

Kendrapada (Coastal and Rest of Odisha): Even though BJD won 22 ZP seats, the BJP bagged 10 seats. This is somewhat worrisome for the BJD, especially Jay Panda who is an MP from this constituency. He was quick to take to Twitter to explain that this was not a personal failure for him, given that the party suffered losses across the state.

Khurda (Coastal and Rest of Odisha): This district is even more worrisome for the BJD where they won 19 while the BJP won 11 out of 30. BJP making inroads into a region that hosts the state capital, Bhubaneswar, could ring some alarm bells in the BJD camp. Bhubaneswar is one of the few urban areas across India where the BJP has not made any inroads. It now appears to be consolidating at the margins of the city.

Mayurbhanj (Coastal and Rest of Odisha): BJD suffered one of the worst electoral defeats in this district. The BJP won a whopping 49 of the 56 ZP seats in this region. This is one district where Odisha BJP's rising star and central minister, Dharmendra Pradhan campaigned extensively.

Koraput (Kosala): BJD won in 24 of the 29 zones which went to the polls in this district. This region also saw extensive campaigning by Pradhan and other BJP stalwarts, but that could not stop BJD's victory here.

Sundargarh (Kosala): One more district which is of concern for the BJD is Sundargarh where it is almost neck and neck for the BJD and BJP. The BJD won 14 and the BJP won 13 ZP seats here. Jual Oram of the BJP has won four of five Lok Sabha elections from this seat since 1998, and it appears that the BJP continues to dominate this area.

Malkangiri (Southern Odisha): The BJD did very well in Southern Odisha, but Malkangiri sprung a surprise. BJP swept this district winning 10 out of the 13 zones which went to polls. This district is particularly significant as this has been one of the worst affected by Naxal violence in the past.

Even though the BJP did very well in the Panchayat elections, it is still not a pan Odisha party. Even if the Panchayat results are to extrapolated into assembly seats, the BJD will have still won around 85-90 seats, while the BJP with 50-55 seats will be the main opposition, with Congress scoring a paltry six to eight seats. In 2014 BJD won 117, BJP 10 and Congress 16.

To go all the way in Odisha and topple the BJD supremacy, BJP needs a three-pronged approach:

First, it needs to focus on the Kosala region and use it as the springboard to rise in the state politics. This being one of the poorest regions in the country, promoting central schemes like Dharmendra Pradhan’s pet project Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) and Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) will have a very positive effect.

Second, the party needs to put forth a chief ministerial face to counter the popularity of Naveen. Dharmendra Pradhan is the most obvious choice, while Basant Kumar Panda and Jual Oram will also play critical roles in developing the party organisation.

Third, BJP has to find a way to win the coastal belt. BJP has traditionally been an urban party and it needs to find ways to make a mark in the Bhubaneswar-Cuttack-Puri region.

Troubles for the BJD ahead

Naveen campaigned extensively during the 2012 Panchayat elections. But in 2017 he was conspicuous by his absence. Many state BJD leaders have attributed the party’s performance to this factor. His relative detachment from the day-to-day state politics is a subject of increasing speculation. Unless he actively campaigns, the BJD will be a much-weakened electoral force in the state. The party has carefully removed all the next tier leaders over the past years to protect Naveen’s territory.

The 2018 urban civic polls will be the real test for Naveen. Historically, urban Odisha has seen the strongest support for BJD. If BJP makes significant inroads in these polls, Naveen’s leadership position inside the party will come under tremendous scrutiny.

If the BJD does well in the 2018 urban local body elections, it may still be able to withstand a BJP onslaught in the 2019 assembly polls. If Naveen actively campaigns for the BJD, he may get another term in the state. But even then, the party risks losing a few parliamentary seats to the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The BJP will look to replicate its Maharashtra success, where it won the macro electoral battles, paving the way for making deep inroads in the state over a short span of three years.