Sinking Congress

M. L. Fotedar has mostly got it right on why his party is doing so badly.

Excerpts from M. L. Fotedar’s forthcoming memoir published in the papers about the decline of the Congress under Sonia and Rahul Gandhi are too important to ignore. In telltale details, they may be sparse, which the memoir proper would probably satisfy. But in the brief analysis that Fotedar provides to explain the party’s fall, he excels himself. He was once an aide to Indira Gandhi who was not known to suffer fools. It shows in his grasp and understanding of politics.

Fotedar says “Rahul Gandhi’s leadership is unacceptable to the people of this country and Sonia Gandhi has her best years behind her. The party has no one to provide direction. It refuses to learn.” This is a critique of the current Nehru-Gandhi dispensation which is as devastating as it is true. Fotedar goes on to say that the party “has made wrong choices while appointing Opposition leaders in both Houses of Parliament. It has made the wrong choices about how to deal with challenges in the Assembly elections. In fact, there is nothing right which the party has done or is doing. It saddens me that the Nehru-Indira legacy has reached a cul-de-sac.”

To go beyond the memoir: Why is the Congress not getting anything right?

When the Congress was the dominant political party right up to the early 1980s, it had no competition for the political talent it attracted. Political spaces had not opened up for competing ideologies, alternative socio-political narratives, and so forth. The Nehru-Gandhi surname and the flood of political talent kept the Congress party going. Fotedar was representative of those times when politics was not very competitive.

But things changed. Those changes are well-known to bear repetition. But the Congress party did not change. It stuck with the dynasty which had deteriorated in quality and been diminished in its all-India appeal. This together with increased political competition took a toll on the party, whose elected representatives sharply fell in numbers. With the party in decline, its capacity to absorb talent slipped, and talent also found other takers and avenues.

Talent also found itself choked in the Congress, with the top posts blocked for the Nehru-Gandhis. Sachin Pilot & Co. cannot easily quit the Congress because of the massive political investments made. They have silently to suffer the mediocrity and caprices of Rahul Gandhi. But new talent is not burdened with past associations and feelings of loyalty. It can move away from the Congress. So it has. This is probably something Fotedar has not considered to write, although it is a key to the Congress party’s decline.

Where this writer is slightly at odds with Fotedar is in his prediction of a challenge to Sonia and Rahul Gandhi from within the party. He speaks of the denouement as being “only a matter of time”. It may well happen. Perhaps Fotedar pens from inside knowledge. But the little one knows of the character of the Congress party speaks to a different outcome. If the Congress’s electoral graph plummets further, it may splinter along its regional fault-lines. This happened in the mid-1990s. The Congress may also split at the central level, reminiscent of the happenings of the late 1970s and earlier. One of the rumps may be led by the Nehru-Gandhis.

A frontal challenge to the dynasty looks bleak, although that may be the way to save the Congress. With the deadweight of the Nehru-Gandhis cut loose, the Congress is guaranteed a second life, but only if a collective leadership takes over, and fiercely reforms the party from within. It looks unlikely.

This piece was originally published on newsinsight.net on October 26, 2015 and has been republished here with permission.