Though BJP And BJD Deny Rumours Of Forming Alliance In Odisha, Recent Developments Indicate Otherwise

Odisha has been abuzz with rumours since the beginning of this week over the two principal political players in the state  — the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — poised to form an electoral alliance. 

Speculation was rife that the alliance would be announced jointly by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik during the former’s visit to the state on Tuesday (March 5). 

But some leaders of both the parties have scotched all these speculations and have even blamed each other for spreading the alliance rumours. 

State BJP president Manmohan Samal said on Tuesday that the two parties were not engaged in negotiations about a possible tie-up. He also ruled out the possibility of an alliance. 

BJP Rajya Sabha MP Vijaypal Singh Tomar, who is also the party’s election-in-charge for Odisha, blamed the BJD for circulating the rumours of an electoral alliance between the two parties.

The BJD was quick to react to Tomar’s allegation with party spokesperson Sasmit Patra accusing the BJP of initiating the ‘rumours’. 

But despite these public denials, recent developments indicate that something could well be in the offing. 

The most distinct of all these developments have been the displays of bonhomie between Modi and Patnaik of late.

Though the two have always shared a very civil relationship and have never criticised each other harshly, they have never displayed any overt bonhomie in public. 

Last month, during a visit to the state, Prime Minister Modi labelled Patnaik his “good friend” and praised his qualities. 

Patnaik reciprocated by calling Modi a “visionary leader” who has ushered in “unprecedented development” of the country. 

Tuesday (5 March) saw Modi calling Patnaik a “very popular Chief Minister” who had made Odisha a model of development. Patnaik, said Modi, practised good and positive politics. 

Patnaik reciprocated in full measure, stating that Modi had “transformed India into an economic powerhouse”. He also thanked Modi for contributing immensely to Odisha’s growth and sought Modi’s cooperation in his efforts to continue to serve the people of Odisha. 

The two were together at Chandikhol in the state’s Jajpur district where Modi inaugurated and laid the foundation of a slew of projects with a total investment of over Rs 20,000 crore. 

Seated next to each other, the two were seen talking amiably. Their body language suggested that the two were happy and comfortable with each other. 

Modi also paid rich tributes to Odisha’s legendary leader Biju Patnaik. “Bijubabu’s contributions to the development of Odisha and the nation are incomparable. I feel fortunate to offer tributes to the legendary leader on behalf of the people of India while standing on Odisha’s soil,” said Modi. 

Naveen Patnaik considers himself to be the inheritor of his father Biju Patnaik’s legacy and has been demanding the Bharat Ratna for his father. 

There are strong indications that the Union government is moving towards announcing the top civilian honour for Biju Patnaik. 

However, it is learnt, such an announcement will happen only once an electoral understanding between the two parties is finalised. 

“This (announcement of Bharat Ratna for Biju Patnaik) will probably happen just on the eve of the formalisation of an electoral understanding between the two parties. The announcement will pave the way for the announcement of a BJP-BJD electoral tie-up,” a senior BJP leader who is also a national office-bearer of the party told Swarajya. 

Political observers say that the two top leaders of rival parties displaying such warmth for each other in public on the eve of the Lok Sabha polls, and the state assembly elections which will be held simultaneously, indicates that the two parties are gravitating towards an alliance, or at least an electoral understanding. 

“Top leaders of political parties that are rivals will never even be seen in each others’ company in public on the eve of elections. That is not how politicians act. And even if they share the dais for an official programme (like the one and Chandikhol), they will not shower praises on each other. What Modi and Patnaik did sent a signal to their respective parties that an alliance or understanding is in the offing,” said political commentator Hemendra Panigrahi.

The amiability between the two came on the heels of the Prime Minister’s trusted bureaucrat and his principal secretary, P K Mishra, spending three days in Odisha last week. 

It is also learnt that a senior aide of PM Modi was reportedly sent to speak to Patnaik and finalise the contours of an electoral alliance between the BJP and BJD.

On Sunday, Patnaik sent his trusted aide, IAS officer-turned-politician V K Pandian, to New Delhi to speak to top BJP leaders there. 

Pandian is reported to have met BJP national president J P Nadda and a couple of other top leaders. 

Another indication that the two parties are moving towards an electoral alliance lies in the BJP’s decision not to announce any candidate for the eastern coastal state. 

The BJP released its first list of candidates for major states across the country last weekend. But the list was conspicuous by the absence of the names of candidates for any of the 21 Lok Sabha seats from Odisha. 

It is learnt that negotiations for seats between the two parties are in the final stages. Both parties have agreed in principle that the BJP will contest a larger share of Lok Sabha seats while the BJD will field candidates from a lion’s share of 147 assembly seats. 

The Lok Sabha seats which the BJP will contest from are being identified, said leaders of both the parties. 

In 2019, the BJD won 12 Lok Sabha seats while the BJP won eight and the Congress won just one.  But the BJP fared very poorly in the assembly elections, winning just 23 seats. The BJD won 112 assembly seats. 

Though the two parties (BJD and BJP) are political rivals, two leaders of both the parties have always been civil to each other. There has never been any acrimony, nasty name-calling, heated exchanges or levelling of grave allegations against each other. 

The two parties were once allies, and top leaders of both the parties maintain cordial ties with each other. 

Also, Naveen Patnaik has remained focused on developing his state and has no national ambitions. Thus, there are no grounds for any clash between Naveen Patnaik and the BJP at the national level. 

Naveen Patnaik has also kept away from the INDI Alliance and rejected overtures from other opposition parties to join their camp. 

All this makes Patnaik, and his BJD, a good prospective ally of the BJP. It makes sense, say political observers, for the BJD to be the big brother in a BJP-BJD alliance at the state level and allow the BJP to call the shots at the national level. 

That, admit leaders of the two parties, is a win-win situation for both the parties. 

Naveen Patnaik, who is 77 and is ailing, is likely to retire from active politics towards the end of his sixth straight term as chief minister from 2024 to 2029. There is strong speculation that the BJD will merge with the BJP once Naveen Patnaik retires. 

It, thus, makes a lot of sense for the two parties to become allies and develop strong bonds with each other before the BJD merges with the BJP.

While that development, if at all it happens, is still five years away at least, there are unmistakable indications that the BJP and BJD are moving closer to an electoral alliance for the Lok Sabha and assembly elections due a few weeks from now.