Will BJP Replace Shivraj Singh Chouhan In Madhya Pradesh To Beat Anti-Incumbency?

After Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) historic victory in Gujarat, the Madhya Pradesh BJP wants to learn a lesson from there.

Assembly elections in MP are due next year and the state shares a lot of similarities with Gujarat.

The BJP government in MP will face an anti-incumbency of 20 years (minus one year when Congress formed the government in the state for a short while) in the elections.

Similar was the case in Gujarat where the BJP had a government for 27 years. But the Gujarat BJP managed to dodge the anti-incumbency by making major leadership changes.

Bhupendra Patel was chosen as the Chief Minister in September last year and the cabinet reshuffle followed. This gave a new face and new energy to the BJP in Gujarat.

Similar is the plan in MP, as this correspondent can understand from the buzz in the political circles of the state. A cabinet reshuffle awaits along with a possible change in the CM face.

Another similarity between MP and Gujarat that necessitates this change is the last assembly election. BJP saw its lowest tally since it has a government in these states in the last assembly election.

While in Gujarat, it managed to cross the majority mark with 99 seats, in MP, it had to lose the government by falling seven seats short of the majority mark with just 109 seats.

However, BJP managed to form the government again in MP in March 2020 by getting some Congress MLAs on its side and winning the by-polls. But this strategy can't be used every time. Hence, the BJP needs change.

All about the change

From time to time, rumours have emerged about replacing Shivraj Singh Chouhan. The most recent one was when he was dropped from the BJP's parliamentary panel in August this year.

However, the BJP leadership subsided the buzz by saying that no such thing is planned. This time too, the top BJP leaders are avoiding commenting on the issue when this correspondent approached.

"The Sangh wants this (replacing Chouhan)," an RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) worker from Morena told Swarajya while wondering how the change has not taken place till now.

He quoted a senior RSS leader to explain the phenomenon, "Shivraj did not let the second ring of leadership bud, especially in the OBC community."

OBCs form almost half of the MP's population and hence, an OBC leader will be BJP's first choice. However, the leaders that pose a challenge to Chouhan's chair, all belong to the upper castes.

MP Home Minister Narottam Mishra and BJP MP president Vishnu Dutt Sharma are Brahmins. Similarly, Jyotiraditya Scindia belongs to a royal dynasty and Kailash Vijayvargiya hails from the trading community.

Thus, in absence of any replacement option, Chouhan continues as the CM. However, the RSS worker believes that Chouhan will be shown a way out "suddenly like Sushil Modi".

The change is needed not only for electoral gains but for governance as well. MP residents told Swarajya that corruption has increased in the state and the BJP has become arrogant after staying in power for a long time.

"If they don't change, we will bring change," a local said indicating that if BJP leadership is not changed, the people can bring change by voting for the Congress.

However, a section of people are not upset with Chouhan, instead, they hold grudge against the other cabinet ministers and those MLAs who have been elected for multiple times and haven't performed well.

While there is another section of people too who believe that due to the lack of weight in political governance, the bureaucracy is dominating the state, making policies less effective and they hold Chouhan responsible for this. A few others feel that Chouhan has nothing more to offer.

"He has been repeating the same things for years now. He has not brought anything new to the table on the governance front in the past few years. His politics has just rhetorics left", a BJP worker from Bhopal told Swarajya on the condition of anonymity.

Thus, stagnation is the major factor working against Chouhan. The top BJP leadership understands the need for a change but remains undecided about what this change will be.

Finding Chouhan's replacement is challenging because his personal popularity has not gone down much, despite being the longest-serving BJP CM. But undoubtedly, the BJP government faces anti-incumbency.

Even if Chouhan is not replaced, a cabinet reshuffle is going to happen for sure to beat the anti-incumbency. This reshuffle might reduce the number of Scindia supporters from the Chouhan cabinet.

During the ticket distribution too, more new faces will be given a chance. The BJP is also likely to give more space to leaders from the Scheduled Tribe (ST) community.