Ground Reports
Vibes Of Vidarbha, Dispatch 8: Hingoli, Akola, And Amravati Reveal Why Maharashtra Elections Will Be Hard To Predict
- The region's fragmented caste arithmetic has given rise to a pragmatic voter base, less swayed by ideology and more by immediate gains.
A cartographic outline of Maharashtra with the Akola Lok Sabha Constituency highlighted in blue.
Rajgaon, Hingoli District
On the Hingoli-Washim highway in Rajgaon, I spoke with a bunch of farmers: Keshav Jadhav, Vinod Gaikwad and company.
One recurring theme in conversations with locals is the inconsistency in infrastructure development. Within Hingoli, the roads are in poor condition, frequent power shortages amount to 6 to 7 hours, and drinking water facilities are lacking.
There is no piped water supply, so villagers must walk to the nearest lake to get water. Irrigation facilities are absent, allowing farmers to grow rice only when it rains, along with crops like soybean and cotton that require less water. No dry lands are visible throughout Vidarbha, meaning that sub-optimal agricultural growth can only be attributed to mismanagement, corruption, and poor resource allocation.
Agricultural credit problems persist here; farmers take loans to buy inputs and pay for labour. They struggle to access essential supplies like pesticides, urea, and seeds. This situation contrasts sharply with Western Maharashtra, which has a well-developed irrigation system, cooperative banks, and facilities that provide essential inputs to farmers. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has established a strong agriculture-based infrastructure there, which also aids its political influence.
The recent soybean minimum support price (MSP) war between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress, with the former promising Rs 6000 per quintal and the latter Rs 7000 per quintal will have a bearing on the voting.
Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has highlighted the Bhavantar scheme under which the government pays the price differential between the market price and the MSP, up to Rs 5000 per hectare. The MSP of cotton at around Rs 7000 per quintal is also seen as inadequate.
In Hingoli, Nagesh Ashtikar of Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) (SS-UBT) is the recently elected member of the parliament (MP). Tanaji Mutkule of the BJP has served as a member of the legislative assembly (MLA), winning in both 2014 and 2019. He has been re-nominated by the BJP and will face Rupali Patil of the SS-UBT. Many rebel candidates within the BJP are also challenging Mutkule, reportedly dealing with health issues. Former SS-UBT MP Wankhede has been expelled for supporting rebels.
In the Hingoli assembly constituency, Dalit, Muslim, and Maratha voters play a decisive role given the population distribution. For the first time, there is talk that the candidate is immaterial and cash transfers could help the Mahayuti alliance win in this constituency.
Akola
Akola is a BJP stronghold that has been holding the Akola Lok Sabha seat from 1989, except for 6 years from 1998 to 2004, when the then up-and-coming Dalit leader, Prakash Ambedkar, snatched the seat. He remains a formidable leader in the area garnering about 25 per cent vote share in each subsequent election.
For 20 years from 2004, Sanjay Dhotre has held the seat. He was a Minister of State in the Modi 2.0 government. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Sanjay's son, Anup Dhotre contested and won by a margin of 40,000 votes.
Four of the six assembly segments are also held by the BJP. In Akola, we will see quadrangular contests and hence tight fights among Mahayuti, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA) and Prahar Janshakti Party.
The approximate demographics are as follows: 60 per cent Hindus, 20 per cent Muslims, 20 per cent Buddhists, 20 per cent Scheduled Castes, and 5 per cent Scheduled Tribes.
I spoke with RSS activist Swanand from Akola, who shared insights on regional political and social dynamics. He said, that in 2009, the BJP-led state government implemented delimitation strategies aimed at dividing Muslim votes, significantly influencing electoral outcomes.
Meanwhile, the Shiv Sena has had limited influence in Vidarbha, as Balasaheb Thackeray primarily focused on the Konkan region. Akola and Amravati emerged as significant centres for the banned Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), which played a major role in the 1992 riots.
The RSS, leveraging its strong presence and numerous educational institutions in these areas, has been instrumental in shaping a counterbalance, potentially contributing to Hindu polarisation in response to the local Muslim demographic.
The area still is considered a transit hub of illegal Bangladeshi and Rohingya Muslims that further pan out to Mumbai, Pune and Bengaluru.
In a recent rally in Akola, PM Modi called upon the people to not make Maharashtra a "Shahi parivar ka ATM." He took Congress to task, alleging that they made only lip service to the Constitution.
Amravati
My last stop in the Vidarbha darshan is Amravati. I thought my journey across Vidarbha helped me get a better grip on its politics. But, Amravati poured cold water on those notions. Every confusing element of Maharashtra politics — strongman dominance, fragmented community groups, agricultural issues, intra-alliance rivalries, and the presence of rebels — is present here.
Amravati, the divisional headquarters, is watered by the Tapti River and its tributaries and is known for its oranges. There is even a town called Warud Orange City. The region also has a significant tribal population, with 8 per cent speaking the Korku language. Former President Pratibha Patil hails from here. Senior minister Chandrakant Patil is the current "guardian minister" for the state succeeding Devendra Fadnavis.
Amravati’s politics are further shaped by its diverse community composition. Out of the approximately 18 lakh voters in the Lok Sabha seat, there are 3 lakh Muslims, 2 lakh tribals, 3 lakh Buddhist Dalits, 1 lakh Hindu Dalits, 3.5 lakh OBCs, and 1 lakh upper castes.
The Amravati Lok Sabha seat comprises six assembly constituencies. In the recent parliamentary elections, Balwant Wankhede of the Congress defeated BJP candidate Navneet Rana by 20,000 votes to become the MP.
No discussion of Amravati politics is complete without mentioning Navneet Rana. She gained popularity as an actress in Kannada and Telugu cinema before marrying Ravi Rana, the local Badnera MLA, in a mass marriage ceremony. Her caste certificate was a matter of controversy, ultimately settled by the Supreme Court certifying that she belongs to the Punjabi Chamar caste.
Navneet contested as an NCP candidate in the Lok Sabha elections but lost. In 2019, she won as an independent candidate with the support of the NCP and Congress. Later aligning with the NDA, she contested as a BJP candidate in 2024 but lost. The couple, often referred to as the "Bunty and Babli" of Amravati, are loved by their supporters but heavily criticised by rivals.
Both of them are relentless campaigners with a "the world vs. them” approach. The hatred towards a successful outsider, that too a woman, crosses limits many times. She was spat on a couple of days ago by goons of rival parties. This reminds people of the mistreatment meted out on Jayalalitha by Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) goons in Tamil Nadu in the 1980s, which fast-tracked her political ascent.
Navneet Rana’s 2024 loss was influenced by severe jealousy and infighting within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The Prahar Janshakti Party, part of the NDA fold, fielded Dinesh Boob, who secured 85,000 votes, effectively splitting the NDA base.
Local Shiv Sena (SHS) leaders, including a former MP Anand Adsul, and prominent figures like Sanjay Khodke from the NCP worked covertly to ensure her defeat. Even the Ayodhya and Modi waves that Navneet banked on could not carry her through.
Interestingly, there are no BJP MLAs in Amravati. However, the region boasts heavyweight leaders like three-time MLA of Badnera Ravi Rana; Yashomati Thakur from Teosa, also a three-time MLA; and Bacchu Kadu, founder of Prahar Janshakti Party and a four-time MLA. All have been re-nominated by their respective parties. Additionally, Virendra Jagtap, a three-time MLA from 2014 to 2019, has been re-nominated by the Congress.
Every main candidate fighting for the Amravati assembly constituency in the upcoming assembly elections is a turncoat. They have all switched parties at some point, underscoring the amoral nature of Maharashtra's politics.
Moreover, BJP rebels are contesting in constituencies like Badnera and Achalapur, adding to the political drama. For instance, senior BJP leader Jagdish Gupta, a former MLA expelled from the party, is running as an independent, with rumours suggesting covert support from BJP workers.
The Mahayuti alliance is backing Ravi Rana tacitly in Badnera by not fielding a candidate against him. However, the Ranas’ outspoken criticism of other Mahayuti candidates has caused significant friction, with even CM Eknath Shinde and Deputy CM Ajit Pawar warning the Ranas.
Typically, Marathas, Buddhist Dalits, and Muslims lean towards Congress, while Hindu Dalits, OBCs, and upper castes favour the BJP. Navneet Rana stirred controversy by chanting the Hanuman Chalisa outside Matoshree, which led to her arrest. In the electoral desert of Amravati for the BJP, the Ranas represent a ray of hope and hence are treated with kid gloves.
Conclusion: On the Samruddhi Expressway to Nagpur
With each town I pass, from the bustling energy of Nagpur to the practical concerns of Hingoli’s farmers, it becomes evident that Vidarbha is a land of complicated narratives, where loyalty shifts and power balances hinge on the micro-level.
Here, electoral success depends on catering to everyday needs and navigating a political landscape where pragmatism prevails over partisanship. The region's fragmented caste arithmetic has given rise to a pragmatic voter base, less swayed by ideology and more by immediate gains.
Vidarbha's industrial stagnation, lack of agricultural rejuvenation and consequent unemployment are an interconnected web of issues. The varied voices — farmers, tribal leaders, and urban youth — reveal the need for both focused leadership and a commitment to equitable development.
Insights from conversations across Vidarbha suggest that traditional exit polls and media narratives may not be able to capture the highly nuanced reality of its political landscape. Candidate selection, managing rebels, local allegiances, and last-minute decisions hold sway. In mediaspeak, there will be 288 elections on 20 November.
Earlier dispatches in the 'Vibes of Vidarbha' series:
