Assembly Elections 2023: Where Congress Has A Chance In Madhya Pradesh

With the recent appointments, the Madhya Pradesh Congress seems to be contest ready for the upcoming assembly elections.

While the former chief minister and state unit president Kamal Nath has been given the charge of the election committee, former union minister Kantilal Bhuria will head the campaign committee.

Bhuria is a Bhil tribal leader from Jhabua district in western Madhya Pradesh. Tribals account for 21 per cent of the state's electorate and Bhil is the largest tribe in Madhya Pradesh.

"If Congress wins, it will be solely because of the ST (Scheduled Tribe) seats," a political observer from Madhya Pradesh told Swarajya.

It appears that the Congress has caught this signal from the ground and is targeting this tribal vote proactively. Bhuria's appointment should be seen in this context.

From the past few years, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been losing its vote base in the ST and Scheduled Caste (SC) communities.

While the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government is undertaking various outreach programmes to woo them back, some events and facts are helping the Congress.

The recent Sidhi urination incident is such example where a Brahmin BJP leader urinated on a tribal man. Recently released National Crime Records Bureau data also claimed that Madhya Pradesh has the highest crime rate against Dalits.

The 2022 tribal family murder case in Nemawar is another incident in Congress' list to target the ruling BJP.

When Congress formed a government in 2018 by winning 114 of the 230 assembly seats, it won 30 of the 47 ST reserved seats.

In 2013, when BJP got a thumping majority with 165 seats, the party registered a win on 31 ST seats. Similarly, BJP's 2008 victory came along with 29 ST seats.

Thus, it can be conclusively said that the party who leads over ST seats, forms a government in the state. This is what Congress is eyeing for, which can be seen in its messaging and campaign.

73-year-old Bhuria has served as a minister in the Manmohan Singh cabinet from 2004 to 2011. Now he has replaced Jyotiraditya Scindia, who headed campaign committee in the 2018 elections but joined BJP in 2020.

Bhuria is considered to be close to former chief minister Digvijaya Singh. Thus, his appointment also balances power centre between Singh and Kamal Nath. 

However, the 34-member campaign committee will also have Kamal Nath as its member, along with his son and Lok Sabha MP Nakul Nath.

The appointment of leaders like Laxman Singh and KP Singh to the campaign committee indicates the Congress's effort to embrace senior leaders who were not appointed as ministers during the Congress government's tenure from 2018 to 2020.

The election committee headed by Kamal Nath has 20 members with a similar balance of power equations within the state unit. Representation of women, SC and OBC communities has also been taken care of.

While these appointments will strengthen the organisation from within, the Congress has made five promises, similar to those in Karnataka which led the party to victory earlier this year, to woo the voters.

The party has promised cooking gas cylinders for Rs 500, which is less than half the market price. It also promised a monthly allowance of Rs 1,500 to women, while BJP's Ladli Behna scheme gives Rs 1,000 per month to women currently.

100 units of free electricity and electricity at half price upto 200 units and implementation of the Old Pension Scheme along the lines of other Congress-ruled states, including Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan are also promised.

The Congress' fifth promise concerns farmers. It intends to launch 'Krishak Nyay Yojana' (farmers' justice scheme) to provide loan waivers, free electricity, and other benefits to farmers.

An RSS worker from Morena told Swarajya that if Congress is able to communicate its freebies well to the masses, it can definitely gain some vote share.

To replicate Karnataka success, Congress has not only imported the freebie promises, but is also importing leaders from the team that worked in Karnataka.

Randeep Surjewala, who is the All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary in charge of Karnataka, has been appointed as senior observer in Madhya Pradesh.

The AICC has appointed Chandrakant Handore as observer in the state. Notably, Handore has founded a socio-political organisation Bhim Shakti that works for Dalit welfare.

Meanwhile, some BJP leaders joining the Congress ahead of the assembly elections is also boosting morale of the party cadre.

Considered a Jyotiraditya Scindia loyalist, Rakesh Kumar Gupta joined Congress back in June. Another Scindia supporter Baijnath Singh Yadav also joined Congress.

Other BJP leaders like former MLA from Katni district, Dhruv Pratap Singh joined Congress over differences with VD Sharma and former minister Deepak Joshi quit BJP after being sidelined by the party leadership.

With many plus points, Congress is way behind BJP in terms of leadership. Its state leadership does not have a popular face and its national leadership doesn't have any impact in Madhya Pradesh.

The only way it can win is by micromanagement of each assembly seat, much similar to what happened in 2018.