As OPS Walks Out, Can AIADMK-BJP Retain This Key Votebank In Southern Tamil Nadu?

With Tamil Nadu’s elections less than a year away, the political landscape is buzzing with speculation about each party’s prospects, potential alliance reshuffles, and seat-sharing arrangements.

AIADMK leader Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS) is crisscrossing the state to rally against the ruling DMK, and BJP state president Nainar Nagendran plans to follow suit. Nagendran has also launched an intensive booth-strengthening campaign to bolster the BJP’s grassroots presence.

Amidst all this came the news of former chief minister O Panneerselvam (OPS), who leads a splinter group of the AIADMK after his expulsion from the party in 2022, leaving the NDA as he was denied an opportunity to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his recent visit to Tamil Nadu.

While his exit was expected because of the AIADMK and BJP joining hands once again, there was still hope that a solution would be found to accommodate him.

This would involve allocating some seats to his outfit from the BJP’s quota, because he belongs to the Thevar (also known as Mukkulathor) community. This is a socially dominant and politically vibrant OBC group that could determine the electoral results in southern Tamil Nadu. As per estimates, they form about 10-12 per cent of the state’s population.

With that ship having sailed, analysts are now calculating the fallout. The question on everyone’s minds is whether the AIADMK-BJP combine will be able to retain this key votebank. Some even say that it could be a deliberate move of the AIADMK to weaken the BJP in a region where it was growing in strength. But before that, here is a short background of the Thevars.

The British Called Them a ‘Criminal’ Tribe

Thevar is an umbrella term for a group of three sub-castes: Maravar, Kallar and Agamudayar. During British rule, the former two were classified as criminal tribes under an Act passed in 1871 as they resisted the colonial masters and were seen as a threat to their authority in the villages. Their movements were restricted and adult males had to regularly mark their presence at the police stations.

The denotification happened only after independence due to a sustained campaign by community leaders like Muthuramalingam Thevar, a close associate of Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose. Thevar emerged as an important leader of Bose’s outfit, the Forward Bloc, in the Madras Presidency and actively encouraged the people of his community to join the Indian National Army (INA).

Traditionally With the AIADMK, Warmed Up to the BJP in Recent Times

After independence, the community largely stood with Thevar’s Forward Bloc or the Congress. The DMK’s ideology did not appeal much to them as its ideas of Dravidianism were seen as going against the community’s culture. During clashes between the Thevars and Scheduled Caste (SC) communities, it was felt that the DMK supported the latter.

On the other hand, the AIADMK courted them aggressively and maintained a more ambivalent attitude towards caste conflicts. As chief ministers, M G Ramachandran (MGR) and J Jayalalithaa took an active part in the yearly guru pooja to honour Thevar. She presented a 13 kg golden armour to adorn the statue during his birthday celebrations.

In return for the community’s support, the party rewarded them with good representation in the state cabinet. Among the prominent leaders are OPS, R B Udhayakumar, Dindigul C Sreenivasan and Sellur K Raju. Jayalalithaa’s close aide and confidant, V K Sasikala, too belonged to the community. This strong bond with the AIADMK persisted until the death of Jayalalithaa in 2016, which marked a turning point for the Thevar community’s political alignment.

Since then, Thevars have been upset with the AIADMK for multiple reasons. These include the expulsion of Sasikala and her nephew TTV Dhinakaran, the acceptance of a 10.5 per cent internal quota for Vanniyars (a large socially dominant community concentrated in northern Tamil Nadu) within the Most Backward Classes (MBC) quota, of which Thevars are a part, and the expulsion of the OPS faction in 2022.

While many Thevar leaders stayed with EPS, the AIADMK became branded as a Gounder party.

It was in this situation that the BJP started wooing the community in a big way. Joining hands with OPS and Dhinakaran, it highlighted Thevar’s nationalist ideals and his opposition to the DMK. The fact that Nagendran, its MLA from Tirunelveli, is from the community, also came in handy for the party.

The move came with its risks, but the party managed to pull it off for a while by fulfilling a longstanding demand of a group of SC communities in the region to be brought together under an umbrella grouping termed the Devendra Kula Vellalar (DKV). This carefully created equation, however, came under strain during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as the DKV community felt that the BJP did not lend visible support when its people were victims of caste-based violence.

Significance for the NDA

Just like the more famous example of western Tamil Nadu, southern Tamil Nadu has historically been favourable to the AIADMK and in recent times to the BJP.

While estimates vary as to how many assembly constituencies are impacted by their voting choices depending on whether one considers seats that fall under the Delta region of the state or not, the number is not less than 40. Some of the parliamentary constituencies where they are present in large numbers are Theni, Madurai, Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, Virudhunagar, Thoothukudi and Ramanathapuram.

One of the reasons for the AIADMK’s loss in the 2021 Assembly elections was a disappointing performance in the region.

For the DMK, getting more than the usual number of seats in these areas could make the difference between being an absolute majority government or a government dependent on coalition partners.

Why the Fear of Vote Loss: Those Who Have Gone Against Them Have Been Punished Electorally

The AIADMK has twice faced a setback because of Thevar angst, in 2021 and 2024. In the former, it was Dhinakaran’s AMMK that played spoilsport in 21 seats by securing votes higher than the winning margin. In the latter, the community consolidated behind the NDA.

Their decision is believed to be the reason behind the AIADMK being pushed to the third position in Thevar-dominated seats like Madurai and Theni. While Raama Sreenivasan, a state general secretary of the BJP, finished second in the former, Dhinakaran was the runner-up in the latter.

Some examples illustrate this:

OPS in Heart, EPS on Lips

While OPS himself is not very strong and without the party machinery or the two leaves symbol, he is at best a regional level leader with statewide recognition, districts like Theni, Madurai and Ramanathapuram, where people from his caste are present in large numbers, could see some impact.

In southern Tamil Nadu, there are also many in the AIADMK who are with the party due to the symbol, but their loyalty is to OPS. These people cannot be expected to work for the EPS led AIADMK. In 2024, they supported the BJP despite officially being in the AIADMK camp. Now, the BJP also stands to lose their support.

Is It Advantage DMK?

Any split in the Thevar vote is expected to help the DMK as margins would be narrower. However, it is unclear whether this will clearly benefit the DMK, as OPS might choose to ally with actor Vijay’s Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam, which is emerging as a threat to all established parties. Together they could carve out a substantial chunk, throwing calculations into disarray.

There is also speculation that OPS might join hands with the DMK, and while that possibility cannot be ruled out, it is less likely given his entire politics has been about him being the true heir of Jayalalithaa.

As stated before, the Thevars are not a single group but three groups: Maravar, Kallar and Agamudayar. While OPS is a Maravar, Dhinakaran is a Kallar. With the latter still in the NDA, it could be a case of only one sub-caste being upset instead of the whole group. Further, the BJP also has a Maravar face in state president Nagendran, though he is usually seen as a Thevar and not specifically a Maravar. That could neutralise the impact to some extent.

What Can BJP Do?

The BJP can soften the blow by saying it has nothing to do with the party’s position on the community but rather is an OPS versus EPS issue, and that it still regards the former with respect.

With Dhinakaran’s AMMK and smaller Thevar outfits like KC Thirumaran’s South Indian Forward Bloc continuing to support the BJP, all is not lost for the party.

Also Read: Back To The Booth: Can Nainar Nagendran Fix Tamil Nadu BJP's Last Mile Issues?