The AIADMK Has Lost Its Way

Months ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which is the largest opposition party in Tamil Nadu, seems to have lost its way.

It has been unable to take on the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) aggressively and has ceded a large part of the opposition space in the state to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by K Annamalai.

While Annamalai has been relentless in taking on the DMK, whether it be through the release of the DMK Files, the PTR Tapes or the ongoing probe into illegal river sand mining, the AIADMK is seen to be lagging, both in terms of the time taken to respond and the quality of its response.

One reason could be that many of its leaders like former ministers C Vijayabaskar, B V Ramanaa, and K P Anbalagan are facing charges of corruption by central or state agencies like the Directorate of Vigilance and Anti-Corruption (DVAC) and the DMK could highlight these to claim that the AIADMK is no less corrupt.

While Vijayabaskar and Ramanaa are accused in the Gutkha scam, Anbalagan is accused of accumulating disproportionate assets.

There is also not much clarity on what the party stands for, especially, after it left the alliance with the BJP few months ago. When part of the alliance, it used to project Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister and Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS) as the Chief Minister.

The question that a voter (who is not affiliated to any party) now faces is that what is he going to gain by voting for the AIADMK in the Lok Sabha elections, as it is unlikely to be part of the central government.

Another way the question could be framed is, "If I am anti-Modi, what difference does it make if I vote for the DMK or the AIADMK ?"

After leaving the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the party has made a series of moves like demanding the release of Muslim prisoners serving long prison sentences (which includes those convicted for their role in the 1998 Coimbatore blasts), prayer facilities for Muslims in the Vellore prison and stating that the party would not support the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).

Palaniswami also recently drew flak for his 'leg pain' remark when he was asked if he would attend the Ram Mandir inauguration.

The party has also been unable to attract allies yet. Though the Congress is reportedly demanding more seats than the last time, its seat sharing talks with the DMK seem to be going smoothly as of now.

The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), which the AIADMK was believed to be targeting, is sticking with the DMK. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) and the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) of actor Vijayakanth, who passed away recently, are all keeping their options open.

The only alliance that seems likely now is the one with the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI), which is believed to be closely linked to the now banned Islamist group Popular Front of India (PFI). Palaniswami recently addressed a 'secularism protection conference' organised by the SDPI.

In southern Tamil Nadu, the Thevars, a big support group for the party, are now divided because of the expulsion of V K Sasikala, her nephew T T V Dhinakaran and former chief minister O Panneerselvam (OPS), who are now likely to go with the BJP.

The youth is increasingly attracted towards Annamalai, actor Vijay, who has just launched his political party, and to some extent Naam Tamilar Katchi's (NTK) Seeman.

While the party might still get its usual vote share from its loyalists, it is weaker than before and may not be able to win a significant number of seats in spite of the anti-incumbency against the DMK. Memories of Jayalalithaa and MGR can only take the party so far.