Has The BJP In Tamil Nadu Grown As Much As The Opinion Polls Suggest?

Some years back, as the author of a weekly irreverent spoof column, I commissioned an opinion poll. Okay, commissioned an opinion poll is giving too much dignity to what was a simple exercise using a bunch of interns (numbering five).

Each intern was asked to speak to 200 people each over a month's period. They were all asked only one question.

It was: Are opinion polls reliable?

As it happened, more than 70 per cent of the total 1,000 spoken to felt that opinion polls were mostly dubious. I kind of understood that this would be the case. It helped me put out a typical satirical news story headlined: 'Opinion polls are unreliable, says our opinion poll.'

It was both a parody and paradox. And that was the idea behind the whole attempt. Truth as a manifestation of perception. 

And whenever there is a major opinion poll I think of our cheeky exercise and the intellectual quandary that they (opinion polls) can put us in. This week in Tamil Nadu, we had Puthiya Thalaimurai-Apt 2024 pre-poll survey out and the results have polarised the political spectrum in the state.

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is predicted to nearly sweep the Lok Sabha elections. But one thing is, it may not get the kind of thumping backing as it did in 2019.

It is expected to have an overall 39 per cent vote share — a fall from the near 53 per cent in 2019. But the real area of fervent debate has been the purported growth of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state.

If BJP Is Indeed Number Two In The State, It’s Politically Significant 

According to the survey, the BJP in Tamil Nadu is predicted to tote in around 18.48 per cent in terms of total vote share — an impressive climb from the 3.71 per cent logged five years back.

More importantly, the survey has the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) at 17.26 per cent. This, of course, implicitly suggests that the BJP is the second largest party in the state now.

Many have hotly contested the survey findings, and have even questioned its credibility. Many political pundits don't think that the BJP has grown to the extent as is being projected in the survey. There is some consternation over the AIADMK being pushed to the third spot in the state.

The two Dravidian parties have dominated the political landscape for the last over 50 years. Between them, they have never let slip the top two spots. So AIADMK being at the third slot is a politically seismic event.

The survey claims the AIADMK's vote share has slipped from 18.72 per cent to 17.26 per cent. This, standalone, is not all that difficult to believe as indeed the Edappadi Palanisamy-themed party has lost a lot of ground for varying reasons.  

But even amidst the claims and counter claims is the fact that no one is denying that the BJP has grown, on its own. And that is where its state president K Annamalai's work in the last six months come into context.

Like him or hate him, he has been hard to ignore. His followers see him as a state-level microcosm of what Narendra Modi is to the national BJP. For them, he is the summum bonum of the party in the state.

His detractors, on the other hand, see him as being brash and impudent whose political value is still unproven. The former Indian Police Service (IPS) officer hasn't won any election. Personally, he lost the state Assembly election — he contested from Aravakurichi in Karur district in May 2021.

Annamalai And His Mission

Despite his defeat in the Assembly polls, Annamalai got a major vote of confidence from his party leadership which anointed him as the chief of the state unit in July 2021.

For a man who had joined the party only in 2020 after resigning his IPS job, this was a rapid climb to the top. It also suggested that he was handpicked with a specific task in mind. 

Despite criticism, from both within the state party and outside, Annamalai has been his own man. He is not unafraid to speak his mind, even though it has landed him in trouble from time to time. Sometimes, he tends to be needlessly flashy. But that seems to be part of the persona he brings to the table. 

As everyone knows, the BJP evokes extreme views in the state. It has been seen or projected (by other parties) as a persona non grata of sorts. In such a situation, the BJP could not have much headway with a meek person at the helm.

In that sense, Annamalai's brashness, and even braggadocio, helps the party. Under his helm, the party’s longtime ally in the state, the AIADMK, has fractured its ties. How this will play out politically is still not known.

One section claims that it would help the BJP grow in the state on its own. But the fear that this would split the anti-DMK votes is also real. So the jury is still out on Annamalai's gambit. 

But ever since he undertook the 'En Mann, En Makkal' (my land, my people), the padayatara that covered 234 constituencies in the state, the party looks galvanised.

It was flagged off by Union Home Minister Amit Shah at the pilgrim town of Rameswaram on 28 July, 2023 and it culminated at Madappur village near Palladam on 27 February, 2024 with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at hand.

Vote Of Confidence On Annamalai

And when the Prime Minister patted him and shook his hands vigorously, Annamalai's followers wasted no time in telling that their man has New Delhi's firm backing.

This message is important for them, as there had been stray reports that the party's central leadership does not have Annamalai's back. 

But the real challenge for Annamalai begins now. He and the party's state unit have done well in the perception battle. But when push comes to shove, they count for little.

It is like the Indian cricket team acing all their matches in the preliminary rounds and semi-finals in the 2023 cricket World Cup. The finals are altogether a different story.

Annamalai and his team know that their test is the 2024 general elections. To be sure, nobody expects it to win anything big. Even a single seat would be seen as a bonus for it.

But it is the percentage of votes that would be under scrutiny. Those numbers will help the BJP plan for the 2026 state elections, which may be its real final.