Bangladesh: India's Smart Moves Pushed Yunus Into Announcing Elections, But He Will Try To Postpone Them Indefinitely

Head of Bangladesh’s interim government, Mohammad Yunus, announced on Monday morning (16 December) that the next national (parliamentary) elections “can be held” between the end of 2025 and the first half of 2026. 

Yunus has been under sustained pressure from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which has emerged as the country's primary political force after the Awami League (AL) collapse, to announce a road map for the elections. 

Until now, Yunus has resisted pressure from the BNP and other quarters to provide a time frame, maintaining that elections would only be held after comprehensive reforms across multiple sectors are implemented. 

His insistence on implementing reforms—ten reform commissions have been established by Yunus—before holding elections has caused significant concern among political parties and civil society leaders. 

The BNP, expected to sweep the next national elections and form the government, was losing its patience over Yunus’ lack of a firm commitment to hold elections within a specified time frame. 

Yunus also faced pressure from his Western benefactors to announce a timeline for national elections, as he owes his position to their support and must comply with their demands. 

However, the strongest pressure came from India. During his visit to Dhaka on 9 December, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri informed his Bangladeshi counterpart, Jashim Uddin, and Foreign Affairs Advisor (de facto Foreign Minister) Touhid Hossain that India’s engagement with Bangladesh’s interim government would be limited to routine matters. 

The interim government led by Yunus had hoped to secure substantive agreements with India, which would have granted it significant legitimacy. However, Misri made it clear that India would engage meaningfully only with an elected government in Bangladesh. 

That was not all. New Delhi also increased its engagements with Washington and other Western capitals over two main concerns: the attacks and persecution of religious minorities in Bangladesh, and the continued rule of the interim administration. 

India informed the US and other Western nations, which had played a key role in installing Yunus as head of the interim government, that his prolonged rule would lead to turmoil in Bangladesh and spark a new round of unrest. 

It also raised concerns about Yunus's approach towards Islamists and Islamist terror groups in Bangladesh, suggesting that he had allowed them greater freedom in exchange for their support. It was pointed out to the US and European countries that the rise of Islamist fundamentalism and terrorism could destabilise South Asia and threaten their interests in the region. 

Therefore, Yunus should be urged to hold elections as soon as possible to allow a democratically elected government to take power. New Delhi emphasised that Yunus is not leading a legitimate government and was only supposed to serve as an interim leader for a short time.

The longer Yunus stays in power, the further democracy will backslide in Bangladesh, giving more power to Islamist fundamentalists. This would reflect poorly on any country supporting Yunus.

There are serious doubts about Yunus. Despite his claims of not wanting to cling to power, he insists that reforms must be completed before elections can take place. 

BNP leaders have rejected this argument, telling Yunus that while urgent reforms, such as creating an error-free voters' list and establishing an impartial election commission, are necessary, more substantive reforms in other sectors can only be implemented by a duly elected government, not an unelected administration lacking legitimacy. 

These commissions have only just begun their work, and given the scale of the tasks assigned to them, it will take at least a few years to complete their efforts. Moreover, the commissions are led and staffed by individuals hand-picked not only by Yunus but also by the student movement leaders who played a key role in the mass uprising that ousted Sheikh Hasina from power. 

Many of these student leaders are advisors (de facto ministers) or hold key positions in the interim administration. Having tasted power, they are reluctant to let go of it. The same applies to others who hold advisory roles and wield the influence they gained by chance. 

This is why Yunus and his group of 'advisors' have been careful to avoid committing to a timeline for elections. The BNP and others suspect that they might even instruct the reform commissions to delay their work, effectively postponing elections indefinitely. 

New Delhi alerted the USA and European countries to the manipulative strategy being devised by Yunus and others to delay elections and retain power. That’s why the US State Department and the European Union recently urged Yunus to announce a time frame for national elections.

EU envoys based in Dhaka and New Delhi met with Yunus on Monday (December 9), coinciding with Foreign Secretary Misri's visit to Dhaka. 

The Delhi-based heads of missions and representatives from Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Luxembourg, Slovakia, Cyprus, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, and Romania, along with the Dhaka-based heads of missions from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the Netherlands, met with Yunus. 

They told Yunus that national elections need to be held and dates for the same need to be announced. 

Yunus reportedly attempted to delay the process, telling the envoys that when the interim government took charge, it was assigned two primary responsibilities: to reform the constitution, institutions, and election process, and to hand over power to an elected government. He argued that the reforms would take time and that it would be appropriate to hold elections only after these reforms are completed. 

He was told that the reform of the electoral process and machinery must be expedited, with changes made as soon as possible. If a specific election date cannot be set immediately, a broad time frame should at least be announced. 

Under pressure from his Western benefactors, India, and powerful political forces like the BNP within the country, Yunus had no choice but to announce the election date on Monday (16 December). 

The crafty Yunus, however, qualified his election roadmap, leaving an open exit route to postpone the elections if necessary. 

Yunus stated that if political parties wish to hold elections after some minimal reforms, particularly in the election process and machinery, a national consensus must be built around that. The condition of 'building a national consensus' leaves Yunus with an open door to postpone elections, claiming that such a consensus remains elusive. 

Yunus has also enlisted his proxies, such as the Jatiyo Nagorik Committee (formed after the July-August uprising and consisting of prominent citizens and student leaders), to demand that elections be held only after those responsible for crimes during the Awami League rule, including former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, are brought to justice.

Other citizens' and student groups have called for the reform commissions to complete their tasks and for their recommendations to be implemented before elections are held. 

That’s why India needs to maintain pressure on Yunus, both directly and through the USA and European nations, to ensure that elections are held by the end of next year as he promised.