Shattered Mandates: Incumbents Across The Globe Struggled To Survive—Did India Dodge A Bullet?

The year 2024 will be remembered as a turbulent chapter in global politics. Across continents, economic headwinds, persistent conflicts, and a palpable disenchantment with the status quo led voters to demand new leadership.

Staggering statistics bear out to support this trend: of the 34 recognised, relatively stable nations not counting the small island nations that went to the polls in 2024, a mere 13 incumbents managed to retain power, while 21 were swept aside by resurgent oppositions. This stark imbalance underscores a global longing for political renewal, even in countries once considered bastions of continuity and steady governance.

A Global Mandate for Change

Nowhere was this more visible than in Europe, the continent where modern democratic systems originated. Europe saw 15 countries undergoing elections, and only five incumbent governments survived. More telling still, among the nine European nations with GDPs exceeding USD 100 billion, only Ireland’s government managed to win re-election. In the United Kingdom, France, Portugal, Belgium, and Finland—long considered reliable centres of moderate governance—opposition forces claimed power.

Europe’s Political Reckoning

Europe’s electoral outcomes exposed a continent unsettled by economic uncertainties and the inability of many leaders to address pressing issues, especially the inflation and rising cost of living, inculcated due to higher energy costs. A succession of incumbent defeats signals a region in search of renewed economic dynamism, social stability, and more decisive foreign policy.

Amid the turbulence, Ireland stands out as an exception. Its retention of the incumbent government points to a leadership that, at least in the eyes of its voters, responded effectively to challenges, managing to reassure its electorate in a year defined by unpredictable upheavals.

Other European countries demonstrated that past achievements offer no guarantees of future mandates. A once-stable political class suddenly found itself unable to command the loyalty of the populace, underscoring that voter sentiment has grown more fluid and less forgiving. Well-entrenched parties discovered that failing to adapt to changing conditions—ranging from spiralling energy costs to evolving security threats—can hasten a spectacular fall from grace. These outcomes stand as a compelling reminder that deep-rooted political systems are not immune to the call for fresh leadership.

We also saw a not-so-late changed leadership in Germany in 2021 facing a debacle with the coalition government of Chancellor Olaf breaking and elections now preponed for February 2025. Similarly, in France, despite a new mandate opposing the incumbent, the new government broke down with a no-confidence motion against it, setting a record for the shortest-serving government in the history of the Fifth French Republic.

Both the giants of the EU are facing an electoral crisis and uncertainty. Not to forget the overwhelming defeat of conservatives led by Rishi Sunak in the United Kingdom leading to a historic win by the Labour Party, which is not performing as well as people expected in the recent public polls on the country’s situation.

Asia, often associated with longstanding regimes and less frequent swings in leadership, did not escape the global pattern. Eight countries faced elections, yet only three incumbents emerged victorious. Within the powerful economies, the scorecard was even harsher: among those with GDPs above USD 100 billion, just India and Taiwan managed to keep their incumbents at the helm.

India’s successful re-election of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for a third term stood in vivid contrast to its chaotic neighbourhood. Although the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the NDA’s principal party, lost its simple majority for the first time since Prime Minister Narendra Modi assumed office, the overall victory was decisive. While this shift necessitates greater reliance on allies, it also testifies to the enduring trust placed in a leadership that has championed national security, infrastructure growth, and an unapologetically assertive foreign policy.

In a year when economic giants like Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea saw their incumbents toppled, India’s continuity showcased not just governmental stability, but also a popular endorsement of a forward-looking, growth-oriented agenda.

Meanwhile, Taiwan, too, proved a bulwark of stability in an era of change, reflecting an electorate’s readiness to support leaders who navigated turbulent geopolitical waters deftly. In stark contrast, neighbours like Sri Lanka and the Maldives parted ways with their incumbents, driven by economic crises and a desperation for fresh starts. Bangladesh’s post-election coup toppled Sheikh Hasina’s government, transforming a re-election victory into a fleeting footnote. Pakistan’s fragile democracy also faltered, with a military-backed government replacing the jailed Imran Khan’s administration. Bhutan too saw the incumbent losing to the People's Democratic Party giving Tshering Tobgay the Prime minister's seat.

These shifts place India, with its relatively cohesive governance, as a reliable anchor in a region fraught with sudden realignments and foreign interference, which the ruling BJP is now blaming for its less than satisfactory performance in the national elections after record winning in Haryana and Maharashtra state assembly elections.

The Americas: Breaking the Mould

In North America, the United States experienced a dramatic reversal of power as Republicans, led by Donald Trump, reclaimed the Presidency, Congress, and the Senate, all three arms of the government. While Mexico remained an exception by renewing its incumbent mandate, the US outcome reminded the world that even the oldest democracies could not rely on historical precedent to predict political fortune. Unsettled by international crises and domestic policy debates, American voters swung the pendulum sharply, signalling that comfort with the established order had eroded significantly. This also made President Trump the only candidate to win against a woman presidential candidate twice!

Elsewhere in the Americas, the same theme played out in varying forms. Panama and Uruguay experienced incumbent losses, illustrating that no region was immune to the year’s trend. Meanwhile, the Dominican Republic reaffirmed its leadership, proving that continuity still had a pulse, even on a far smaller scale than before.

Africa’s Nuanced Landscape

Africa’s electoral outcomes offered a more balanced picture. South Africa, Ghana, and Namibia chose continuity, with Namibia making history by electing its first female president. In contrast, Senegal, Botswana, and Mauritius ended incumbent reigns. This mix suggests that while the global trend toward challenging the status quo reached African shores, it was counterweighted by contexts where stability and incremental progress held appeal. Some African electorates may still have faith that their governments can address local issues without dramatic political overhauls.

Economic Might Does Not Guarantee Stability

Countries such as France, the United Kingdom, South Korea, and Japan discovered that voters were not moved by economic size alone; they craved dynamic leadership, tangible policy benefits, and solutions to pressing international and national crises.

Conclusion: Lessons of 2024

The year 2024 stands as a powerful testament to the fragility of political capital. Leaders who assumed that steady performance and incremental reforms would suffice found themselves rejected by electorates hungry for new directions. As conflict and economic uncertainty blurred the old certainties, voters became more willing to gamble on fresh faces and alternative visions.

Against this global backdrop, India’s continuity stands out. Its leadership, while forced to share power more openly with allies, retained popular support, underscoring that a firm nationalistic stance, confident economic policies, and a resolute security paradigm can still resonate. In a world shaken by upheaval, this stable pivot in South Asia suggests that governments willing to adapt without abandoning core commitments may yet guide their nations through the unpredictable terrain ahead.

Ultimately, 2024 will be remembered as the year established powers were humbled, new players gained ground, and the political tapestry of the world grew more varied and uncertain. Many may blame this on the global rise in inflation finally catching up since COVID. The lessons learned may well shape the political order for decades to come, though the near future appears to be waving around a possible recession.