Trump And The Tightrope Walk For Indian Diplomacy

As Modi meets Trump, he faces a geopolitical landscape marked by uncertainty and transformation, which presents both unique opportunities and challenges.

Trump’s presidency has disrupted the global order, marked by unilateralism, trade wars, and an “America First” foreign policy that places economic gain above multilateral commitments.

For India, the stakes are particularly high. The context for this meeting is fraught with complexity, especially after the United States (US) deported 104 illegal Indian immigrants. Trump’s “Americanist” agenda has posed significant challenges even for traditional alliances.

India is certainly in a unique position to have a great track record with both the US administrations in the last decade. One of the most significant aspects of the Modi-Trump relationship during Trump’s first term was their personal rapport.

From the “Howdy Modi” event in Houston to the “Namaste Trump” rally in Ahmedabad, the two leaders demonstrated a level of camaraderie that few expected. The fact that the US is hosting Modi in the first leg of Trump’s presidency — a privilege typically reserved for staunch US allies — is a powerful message. It underscores India's growing strategic importance on the global stage. This personal bond can be a strategic asset, particularly in navigating contentious issues.

However, it’s crucial for Modi to translate this personal rapport into tangible outcomes, especially at a time when Trump is back in office but with new politics — one of disruption and friction. Trump’s tendency to view allies as subordinates rather than equals makes this a delicate task.

While India seeks closer ties with the US, Modi must also assert India’s sovereignty. Whether it’s standing firm on issues like data localisation or articulating India’s independent foreign policy, Modi’s ability to project strength while fostering collaboration will be critical.

Dealing with Trump requires a careful and objective analysis of his politics and vision for the American people, keeping the polemical conclusions at bay. Under Trump, we are witnessing an aggressive counter-hegemony to ‘liberal globalism,’ especially in trade and commerce, the mainstreaming of problematic economics of protectionism, withdrawal of American interventionism in global conflicts, the crackdown on the left establishment, and perhaps a deeper American nationalism.

Make no mistake, we are still witnessing the typical American chest-thumping and assertion, but in a new avatar for which we have no precedent to guess how it would impact the international order.

The highlight of the Modi-Trump meeting would certainly be reciprocal tariffs. While India has already signalled its willingness to address some of Trump’s concerns, such as by reducing tariffs on certain goods, much more remains to be negotiated.

The latest budget cuts duties on high-engine capacity motorcycles and cars in a move to show pragmatism. Modi’s task is to engage with Trump constructively while asserting India’s sovereignty and strategic autonomy.

In Dr S Jaishankar’s words, “an America that consciously chooses to be a higher cost but more insular economy, a nationalistic but innovative technology creator, and a self-sufficient but more powerful military, will mean a very different ball game”. One that requires a delicate balancing act — addressing US concerns without appearing subservient and securing concessions without undermining India’s domestic priorities.

While many expert voices suggest ignoring the ‘Trade irritants’ and collaborating on the strategic front, it would be a stark underestimation of Trump 2.0’s nimbleness in walking the talk. Trump already announced a 25 per cent tariff on aluminium and steel imports without exception. This has already sent shockwaves across global markets. By all means, Trump is expected to bring up India’s US$35.3-billion trade surplus over the US.

A caveat, however, is that as much as Trump is obsessed with tariffs and his preconceived notion that tariffs would reduce America’s trade deficit, economic evidence doesn’t back his claims. The US-China trade war is a recent example which led to a surge in US imports by 31.5 per cent. Trump is running his political vehicle on economic anxiety, villainizing globalization, and over-promised radical reforms–one that might circle back and hurt the median American consumer.

New Delhi is pursuing its vision of becoming a global power, relying on partnerships with nations like the US to secure its strategic objectives. Trump’s transactional nature means that goodwill alone won’t suffice; India will need to make concrete concessions to secure US cooperation, particularly on trade and technology.

As Modi reiterated before leaving for the Paris AI summit, there is so much room for discussion and collaboration between India and the US in areas like defence, trade, supply chain resilience, supply chain diversification, energy, and technology. India also has the opportunity to capitalize on its growing role in global supply chains as companies look to reduce their dependence on China. By positioning itself as a viable alternative, India can make a compelling case for greater economic collaboration with the US.

Another key theme for the talks will be H1-B visas, a longstanding point of contention in U.S.-India relations. Indians are the biggest beneficiaries of the H1-B visa. While Trump and his tech entrepreneurs have embraced the talent pool the H1-B facilitates, his strict immigration policies and rhetoric on “America First” have fueled apprehensions among Indian professionals and students.

The scepticism even towards legal Indian immigrants has become borderline paranoid. The uncertainty surrounding visa policies has not only discouraged skilled talent from seeking opportunities in the US but also created anxiety among those already working or studying there.

Modi will have to tread carefully here, balancing India’s interests in safeguarding its diaspora’s opportunities while addressing Trump’s domestic political pressures. A favourable outcome on H1-B visas will not only benefit Indian professionals but will also reinforce the importance of US-India collaboration in driving innovation and global economic growth.

The Modi-Trump meeting is more than just a handshake between two world leaders; it is a litmus test for the evolving global order.

Can Trump’s transactional worldview find common ground with Modi’s vision of a self-reliant, globally engaged India? Has Trump started a new form of politics, a replica of which will be seen across regions in more populist, protectionist, and isolationist regimes?

And perhaps the most provocative question of all — can the world’s oldest democracy and its largest democracy craft a relationship that transcends reciprocal tariffs, geopolitical posturing, and protectionist rhetoric to truly define the 21st century?

A watershed moment for India-US ties, Trump’s second term presents both an exciting and unpredictable chapter in this evolving partnership. As External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar aptly remarked, this phase is truly “out of syllabus.”