Trump’s Deference To Modi On Bangladesh Stirs Up Dhaka And Puts Yunus On The Backfoot

United States (US) President Donald Trump’s comments on Bangladesh have set off an intense churn and speculation in political circles in Dhaka. 

Speaking to reporters in Washington, DC, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi by his side, Trump said he “will leave Bangladesh to Prime Minister (Modi).”

The implication was that the US will not get directly involved in Bangladesh and will leave it to India to deal with its neighbour. 

According to top sources in India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), Modi and Trump discussed Bangladesh in their bilateral.

Modi provided a comprehensive outline of developments in Bangladesh, especially the rise of Islamist forces in that country since the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government.

India's Prime Minister also briefed Trump in detail about the dalliances by the interim government in Bangladesh headed by Muhammad Yunus with Pakistan and how that could pose a threat to India’s North East. 

Trump, it is learnt, said that the US would not like to get involved in Bangladesh and will go by what India deems fit in dealing with that country.

Trump’s position has upset the calculations of the Yunus regime and the Islamists in the country, who are hostile to India and had been planning, with help from Pakistan, to create fresh trouble by supporting militant groups in India’s North East.

Yunus, who was installed in power by some elements of the US deep state, Pakistan, and Turkiye, has been banking on the continued patronage of his benefactors in the US, like the Clinton Foundation, to entrench himself in power in the country.

The new regime in Bangladesh, especially the leaders of the Anti-Discrimination Students’ Movement (ADSM), who are now in positions of power and want to float their own political outfit, were also banking on the strong support of the US deep state and its spearheads, like George Soros’ Open Society Foundation (OSF), to realise their ambitions. 

But with Trump coming to power in the US and launching the process of systematically dismantling the overseas outreach of the US deep state — a major step was the shutting down of USAID, short for the United States Agency for International Development — the calculations of Yunus, the leaders of the ADSM, and the Islamists in Bangladesh have gone haywire.

Their worst nightmare — withdrawal of patronage by the US deep state and its arms like the Clinton Foundation and OSF — is coming true. And what’s even more of a bad news for them is that the US is now leaving it to India to deal with Bangladesh.

India’s position is very clear and has been conveyed in unequivocal terms to the Yunus government: while India seeks to continue to have friendly ties with Bangladesh, any substantive dialogue between the two countries will only happen once a democratically elected government is in place in Dhaka.

Yunus and his advisers (the de facto ministers) have bristled at New Delhi’s position, which denied them legitimacy.

And being innately anti-India because they are covertly or overtly all Islamists (who view Hindus as kafirs), they have started cultivating Pakistan to create trouble for India.

But Trump’s statement has upset their anti-India plans as well. They now realise that any misadventure against India will invite severe retaliatory action from New Delhi.

Boost to Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Awami League

Trump’s statement has also boosted the morale of the mainstream democratic parties, primarily the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). And it offers a strong ray of hope to the beleaguered Awami League as well. 

The BNP wants early parliamentary elections in Bangladesh, a stance that is in alignment with New Delhi’s position. But Yunus is intent on deferring parliamentary elections on the plea that the process of reforms in the electoral system, the judiciary, police, and administration that he has initiated must be completed before the elections are held.

The BNP has repeatedly stated that minimal reforms can be carried out before the elections and that only a democratically elected government can have the mandate to carry out extensive reforms. 

The BNP also suspects — and there are strong grounds for this — that Yunus wants to defer parliamentary elections not only to remain in power but also to give time to the ADSM leaders to form their own political party.

“It takes a long time to establish a political party. Just forming a party is not enough. It has to be built up from the grassroots in order to be organisationally strong. The ADSM leaders are thus taking the excuse of reforms to buy time and strengthen their party," a senior BNP leader told Swarajya.

The BNP, which is confident of sweeping the parliamentary elections, does not want to give the ADSM leaders time to establish and strengthen their party. This has put the BNP on a collision course with the Yunus regime.

The Yunus regime, in order to trip the BNP, has also floated two more proposals: holding local elections before the parliamentary elections and nominating members to a proposed upper house of parliament on the basis of proportional representation. (Bangladesh follows the first-past-the-post system and has a unicameral legislature.)

The BNP, expectedly, is opposed to all these proposals since implementing them will take time and result in the postponement of parliamentary elections.

India is also backing the demand to hold early elections so that Bangladesh can have a democratically elected government. New Delhi’s position is that it will conduct serious business only with such a government.

BNP-Jamaat Rift

The Yunus regime, which has strong links with the country's radical Islamists, has the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami on its side. The Jamaat has lent its weight to all the proposals (holding local elections first and proportional representation) that can delay holding of parliamentary elections.

Jamaat's position has caused a deep divide between the BNP and the Jamaat, which were allies until recently. The Jamaat and BNP were also in power in the past as allies.

In what is seen as a significant development in Bangladesh’s political landscape, the BNP and Jamaat have taken contradictory and opposing positions on elections and reforms and even issued statements against each other.

The BNP also suspects that the Yunus regime, especially the ADSM leaders, are covertly trying to undermine the party.

“Some advisers in the interim government initiated moves to break our party and when that did not succeed, they tried to instigate some of our second-rung leaders against our chairperson (Begum Khaleda Zia) and acting chairperson (Tarique Rahman). Though those efforts fell flat, we view those as hostile moves by the present interim government against our party,” the senior BNP leader said.

The BNP is the only major political party of significance in Bangladesh. The Awami League is in disarray, and the other parties like the Jatiya Party and the Communist Party of Bangladesh are fringe players with little public support.

The Jamaat has now emerged as the principal opponent of the BNP. The Jamaat is trying to forge an alliance with other Islamist parties, like the Islami Oikyo Jote, Bangladesh Tarikat Federation, Khilafat Andolan, Bangladesh Muslim League, Jamaat Ulema-e-Islam Bangladesh, and Islami Front Bangladesh.

“Some prominent persons in the interim government are behind the move to form an umbrella alliance of all Islamist parties. Yunus himself has blessed this, and Pakistan is actively supporting and aiding this move. The objective is to make the Islamists strong in Bangladesh and boost their chance of coming to power through the ballot,” a senior officer of an Indian intelligence outfit who keeps close tabs on Bangladesh told Swarajya.

BNP-Awami League Understanding

The BNP, which does not want to be cornered politically, is now keenly hunting for allies. A section of the BNP leadership is open to the idea of forming a covert alliance with the Awami League. 

Such an alliance, they say, is necessary to foil what they (the BNP leaders) view as egregious moves by the Yunus regime against the party (the BNP) and also in order to take on the Jamaat and the Islamists of the country, who are getting stronger in Bangladesh with help from Pakistan and some other Islamic nations.

Though the Awami League is in disarray and its entire leadership is either behind bars or in exile out of the country, the party retains the support, albeit silent, among a substantial section of the country’s population.

“The Awami League may be leaderless and organisationally in a state of chaos, but one cannot deny that it enjoys the support of many Bangladeshis. So the Awami League cannot be written off. An alliance with the Awami League will be beneficial to us,” a top BNP leader who is close to Tarique Rahaman and has met him recently told Swarajya.

That an understanding between the BNP and Awami League is in the offing is evident from the fact that the BNP has voiced its strong opposition to proposals (made by ADSM leaders) to ban the Awami League. 

The BNP has also come down strongly on proposals to rewrite the country’s history to whitewash the role of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in the country’s liberation from Pakistan.

BNP leaders have publicly stated that history cannot be rewritten and Mujib’s role cannot be diminished. They have also opposed statements by some in the Yunus regime belittling the key role played by India in the 1971 liberation war.

The BNP leadership has also strongly condemned the demolition of Mujib’s residence in Dhaka and the attacks on the houses of Awami League leaders.

Bangladesh, thus, is likely to witness a realignment of political forces, with the non-Islamist parties (the BNP, Awami League, and others) forming a loose alliance or forging an understanding to oppose the Islamists and the Yunus regime that is in league with the Islamists.

What India is Likely to Do

New Delhi will now push for early parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. The top MEA official who spoke to Swarajya said India has convinced the Trump administration that early polls in Bangladesh will be crucial to ensuring stability in the country. 

“The more the polls are delayed, the stronger will the Islamists get. We have impressed (upon) the new administration in Washington about this, and they are on board. They fully understand that delaying polls will play into the hands of forces like Pakistan and China, which are keen on disrupting regional peace and stability,” said the MEA official. 

With the Trump administration on board and Yunus and his cohorts no longer enjoying the patronage of some powerful entities in the US, New Delhi’s path to assert itself in Bangladesh and protect its interests has now become clearer.

While India will not assert itself overtly, it will lend its full weight behind the move to force the Yunus regime to hold parliamentary elections by the end of this year.

The coming to power of an elected government in Dhaka will automatically translate into the marginalisation of Islamists and disruptors (like the ADSM leaders). And that will pave the way for the Awami League to return to the political arena. 

This will mean a defeat for all the players who brought about the regime change in Bangladesh, leaving the country to return to normalcy.