Explained In Brief: How China Could Respond To US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan Visit

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is almost certainly visiting Taiwan, after weeks of wrangling between the United States and China about whether she should make the trip.

Beijing has strongly protested Pelosi’s Taiwan visit and issued warnings of a strong Chinese response.

Last night, China announced import ban on more than 100 Taiwanese firms from the food and agriculture industries.

So what else might China do in response?

"The PLA is expected to flex some muscle in the Taiwan Strait — something that Chinese state media can trumpet as a symbol of Xi’s iron resolve — and which projects power over Taiwan without risking military confrontation," according to a report from Politico.

PLA Air Force aircraft could shadow her flight into or out of Taiwan. However, aircraft for countries that are not friendly to each other shadow each other all the time.

Some analysts expect more PLA live fire drills. Violation of Taiwan's airspace instead of just its air defence zone.

M. Taylor Fravel, Director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, believes that Chinese President Xi Jinping is fearing that the US is hollowing out its 'One China' policy. Thus, Xi is in a situation where he has been incentivised to respond forcefully. Fravel assesses that China will view the visit by Pelosi as a test of Xi's rule. His credibility and reputation is at stake.

A report from Reuters reads that "Chinese warships and aircraft “squeezed” the median line on Tuesday morning. Neither side’s aircraft normally cross the median line.”

U.S. officials however have concluded in recent days that China’s belligerent threats against the speaker are simply an intimidation tactic, as per a congressional official quoted in a Politico report.

Fravel disagrees. He has argued that the "response will almost certainly include a military component, most likely with a show of force in the first instance—live fire exercises, a much greater military presence within the Taiwan Strait and especially across "the median line," even missile tests."

It isn't clear yet if there will be any substantial response from China. The Communist Party’s main newspapers have not published editorials about Ms. Pelosi’s possible visit that would signal a major escalation.

In such cases, it is also important to remember history.

During the Taiwan crisis of 1995-96, China held military exercises off Taiwan, and the United States in response sent naval ships to deter China.

Beijing was irate after the Clinton administration allowed Taiwan’s president, Lee Teng-hui, to visit the United States, and Chinese leaders conducted menacing missile tests. The goal was to hurt Mr. Lee in Taiwan’s 1996 presidential election. Instead, he won.

Xi certainly has options to retaliate. China can hold menacing military exercises, perhaps in seas and skies closer to Taiwan.

China could also send more planes and ships near Taiwan, including by crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait, an informal boundary that Chinese forces cross only infrequently.

Taiwan is a land that has never been ruled by the CCP.

"“Peaceful unification,” is a CCP euphemism that refers to the subversion and coerced annexation of Taiwan’s ROC government. It’s a seemingly benign phrase that, in reality, describes the destruction of a nation-state that is ranked among the top ten democracies in the world," says Ian Easton, an analyst.

A lot depends on what one understands by the term 'forceful response' which China has promised. We all have to wait to see what the CCP means when it talk about 'forceful response'.