Explained: Why Ukraine’s President Doesn't Want To Call A Possible Russian Invasion 'Imminent'

On Wednesday (2 February), White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that the US would no longer describe a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine as "imminent," saying that the word sent an unintended message.

"I think it sent a message that we weren't intending to send, which was that we knew (Russian) President (Vladimir) Putin had made a decision," the White House press secretary said during the daily briefing.

The decision came after the US' repeated suggestion that a Russian invasion was "imminent" drew anger in Kyiv, where President Volodymyr Zelensky has dismissed that an invasion by Russia was certain.

There has been a sharp contrast in the signals from Kyiv and the messaging from Washington on the potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. The West's insistence that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent has caused some frustrations in Kyiv to break into the open.

"I’m the president of Ukraine, I’m based here, and I think I know the details deeper than any other president,” Zelensky has said in a statement that was seen as an attempt to weaken the western talk of an imminent attack.

When the US and the UK evacuated their embassy staff from Ukrainian capital Kyiv earlier this month, suggesting that the looming war was now at Ukraine's doorsteps, the Ukrainian foreign ministry had rebuked the two countries for the move, calling it “excessive caution”. More recently, the Ukrainians have dismissed intelligence leaks that Russia was transporting supplies of blood to its troops at the Ukrainian border for use in the treatment of potential casualties of war, saying it was aimed at spreading panic.

Why is President Zelensky insisting on not describing a possible Russian invasion as "imminent" or "certain" at a time when Russia has stationed over a hundred thousand troops within striking distance of the Ukrainian border?

Zelensky, who played the role of a history teacher who became the president of Ukraine in the popular Ukrainian television comedy “Servant of the People" before winning the presidency in 2019, is treading a fine line in the real-life drama playing out between Russia, Europe, the United States and Ukraine.

The stakes for Ukraine are high, and President Zelensky's ability to communicate effectively holds the key. While he can't underplay the very real threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine beyond a point, he also has to ensure that his words do not cause panic in the country.

For Ukraine, Russian escalation has remained a perennial threat. The country has been indirectly at war with Russia for around eight years now, fighting occupation and insurgency in its eastern part against Moscow-backed separatists. It has suffered economically due to the ongoing conflict and the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014.

Zelensky has reportedly told Western leaders that the Russian threat to Ukraine isn't new and appears to believe that the greatest threat to the country may come from within. That, experts say, could be the reason behind Zelensky's appeals for calm and his insistence on not describing the possible Russian invasion of Ukraine as "imminent".

The Ukrainian president believes that repeated talk of an imminent war could put Ukraine's economy at risk. It could result in widespread panic, scare off investors and lead to economic ruin even before Putin invades.

It was for this reason that the Ukrainians were irked by the decision of the US and the UK to draw down their diplomatic presence in the country. The reports and images of diplomats being evacuated from Kyiv painted a picture of a country on the brink of collapse.

"There are signals even from respected leaders of states, they just say that tomorrow there will be war. This is panic - how much does it cost for our state?" Zelensky said at a press conference in Kyiv last week.

The "destabilisation of the situation inside the country" was the biggest threat to Ukraine, he said, adding, "We could lose the economy".

Zelensky has also said that Russia’s real intention could be not to invade Ukraine, but instead to weaken the country internally.

In late January, Ukrainian security agencies arrested a group they said was planning to stage riots in the country. Ukrainian agencies have claimed that the group was planning to use "thousands of paid anti-government protesters, smoke bombs and litres of fake blood for the cameras, with medics on the scene to simulate first aid. The goal, explained Ihor Klymenko, Ukraine’s police chief, was to shake the country with viral images of unrest and police brutality."

Many Ukrainians, who have suffered due to the conflict over the last eight years, appreciate Zelensky's appeals for calm. Some also believe that the US is using Ukraine and the crisis for its own benefits.

President Zelensky's supporters argue that he has been preparing for the crisis in private while appearing calm in public.

“The tone of voice of our [Ukrain's and the West's] messages may sound different but the actual content is the same. Everything is possible and we should be preparing for every possible scenario,” Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has said.

Some in the US have also expressed similar views.

“I have listened closely to what President Zelensky has said and he reminds us time and again that there could be a way out of this short of military action,” Senator Richard J. Durbin said last week.

Others believe that Zelensky's calls for calm, which have also been seen as the president talking down the Russian threat, could have political costs for him if a full-blown Russian invasion comes.