Pakistan Expels 1.7 Million Afghan Refugees As Taliban Seethes: Four Things You Wanted To Know, Explained

Pakistan recently took a decision to expel undocumented Afghan refugees from its borders, imposing a deadline for over 1.73 million individuals to leave by 1 November.

Two days ago that deadline expired. Following the expiration, Pakistani authorities deported over 7,300 refugees on the very first day.

Moreover, an additional 140,000 refugees voluntarily left Pakistan since the announcement of the deadline.

This raises questions given the decades-old relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan. In this piece, Swarajya explains why Pakistan took such a drastic step to expel more than 1.7 million Afghans, creating an unparalled man-made human tragedy.

(1) What Exactly Is Happening?

Last month, (on 3 October), Pakistan issued a directive for all undocumented Afghan refugees to leave the country.

Pakistan has been a home for over 4.4 million Afghan refugees since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, resulting in a continuous influx and outflow of refugees over the past four to five decades.

The most recent wave of migration occurred in 2021, coinciding with the Taliban's capture of Kabul on 15 August. It is estimated that more than 700,000 Afghans sought refuge in Pakistan to escape potential repercussions from the Taliban's return to power.

Since the expiration of Pakistan's deadline for voluntary departure on 1 November, nearly 20,000 refugees have been forcibly deported.

(2) Why Now? What Triggered It?

Pakistan has cited the involvement of Afghan refugees in acts of terrorism within its borders as the primary reason for their expulsion.

When announcing the deadline, Pakistan pointed out that out of the 24 suicide bombings in the country, 14 were carried out by Afghan nationals.

Sarfraz Bugti, Pakistan's interim Interior Minister, explicitly held Afghan nationals responsible for these attacks, stating, "There are no two opinions that we are attacked from within Afghanistan and Afghan nationals are involved in attacks on us," adding, "we have evidence".

However, this move could be a 'pressure tactic' to force Afghan Taliban's hand to act against the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a Pakistan-based terror group involved in numerous acts of terrorism and bombings inside Pakistan.

TTP members frequently conduct bombings in Pakistan and then seek refuge in Afghanistan, taking advantage of the porous Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

The Pakistan security establishment has repeatedly called on the Afghan Taliban to cease providing a safe haven for TTP. In response, the Afghan Taliban has suggested negotiations with the TTP rather than taking physical action against them.

It's essential to remember that during the US-led military campaign following the 9/11 attacks in New York, the TTP offered safe haven to the Afghan Taliban. Furthermore, the TTP pledged loyalty to the Afghan Taliban, essentially making them their guests, and making it more challenging to take action against them.

The Taliban have taken limited action against the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) following Pakistan Army's request.

They arrested 200 TTP members and relocated others away from the Pakistan border. Additionally, the Taliban issued a 'fatwa' declaring TTP's attacks in Pakistan as non-jihad.

(3) How Has The Taliban Reacted To It?

Upon the announcement of Pakistan's decision in October, Mawlavi Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid, the Taliban's acting Defence Minister, reacted furiously.

He expressed, "Pakistan's decision to expel Afghans is unjustifiable and inhumane, and we strongly condemn it".

Two days ago, (on 1 November), when the deadline expired, he reiterated, describing it as, "cruel and barbaric behaviour against Afghan refugees".

Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid added that, "the behaviour of Pakistan against Afghan refugees is unacceptable".

(4) Why Has The Relations Between Taliban And Pakistan's Army-Intelligence Establishment Deteriorated?

From the images of former Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) chief Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed at a hotel in Kabul just days after (on 5 September) the Taliban's takeover of Kabul on (15 August), to the recent deportation of Afghan nationals, why have relations between Afghan Taliban and Pakistan's Army-Intelligence establishment deteriorated?

After all, Pakistan's support for the Taliban dates back to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the late 1970s and continued through decades of conflict, providing essential aid, including shelter, food, aid, and weapons, that played a significant role in the Taliban's rise to power.

Furthermore, the Pakistan Army operates training facilities in Afghanistan for terror groups targeting India.

One contributing factor appears to be Pakistan's consistent accusation that the Taliban is not taking adequate measures to curb the infiltration of terror elements across the porous border.

Numerous border clashes between Taliban and Pakistan Army's border guards have also soured relations.

It appears that the Pakistan Army had believed it could exert control over the Taliban to further its own strategic interests, driven by the historical notion of 'strategic depth' against India.

However, the Taliban's increasing independence, pursuit of their own foreign policy, and attempts to improve relations with India have strained their relationship with the Pakistani Army.

This human tragedy is a direct consequence of the strained relations between two entities that were once staunch allies.