Explained: CSO’s Latest Revision In GDP Numbers Shows That India Grew At 8.2 Per Cent In The Year Of Demonetisation

Data released by Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) on Thursday (January 31) showed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Indian economy expanded at 7.2 per cent in 2017-18 and recorded an impressive 8.2 per cent acceleration in 2016-17. At 8.2 per cent growth, the year of demonetisation has now emerged as the fastest growing fiscal since 2010-11. The GDP growth rate for the year 2015-16 has been revised downwards to 8 per cent from earlier 8.2 per cent.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, released the First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2017-18, along with Second Revised Estimates for the financial year 2016-17 and Third Revised Estimates for the financial year 2015-16 (with Base Year 2011-12) as per the revision policy.

The following are the revised estimates provided by CSO.

• For 2017-18, as per the First Revised Estimate, GDP growth now stands at 7.2 per cent, compared to the 6.7 per cent estimated earlier.
• For 2016-17, the year demonetisation was announced, GDP growth has been revised higher to 8.2 per cent compared to the earlier estimate of 7.1 per cent. This is the Second Revised Estimate for this year.
• For 2015-16, GDP growth has seen an downward revision to 8 per cent in the Third Revised Estimate, from 8.2 per cent earlier.

The CSO provided the following reasons for revision in GVA/GDP for the three years

Year 2015-16

• Use of updated estimates of production and prices of some crops, livestock products, fish and forestry products.
• Use of final results of ASI: 2015-16 instead of provisional results.
• Use of updated information on local bodies and autonomous institutions.

Year 2016-17

• Use of updated estimates of production and prices of some crops, livestock products, fish and forestry products.
• Use of provisional results of ASI: 2016-17
• Replacement of Revised Estimates of different items of expenditure and receipts in the Central and State government budgets by Actuals
• Use of updated information on Local Bodies and Autonomous Institutions
• Use of updated MCA21 database received from the Ministry of Corporate Affairs Use of latest annual report of Public Sector Enterprises
• Use of latest data received for Cooperative Banks, NBFIs and financial auxiliaries from NABARD, NAFSCOB, MCA and SEBI.

SBI Group chief economic adviser, Soumya Kanti Ghosh, suggested that demonetisation probably resulted in cash being used for consumption.