China’s Plan To Launch 15,000 Satellites By 2030 For Global Internet Is Already In Trouble

China’s ambitious low-Earth orbit broadband project, the Qianfan satellite network, also called the Thousand Sails Constellation, is falling well short of targets, raising doubts over its ability to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink, the SCMP has reported.

As of July, only 90 satellites have been launched against the target of 648 by end-2025, a milestone required under international rules to retain spectrum and orbital slots.

The project, led by Shanghai-based Yuanxin Satellite Technology and backed by the local government, ultimately aims to field over 15,000 satellites globally.

A severe shortage of launch vehicles is the core bottleneck.

China lacks a reusable rocket equivalent to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, which routinely launches up to 24 satellites per mission, twice a week. In contrast, Chinese rockets can only carry 18 satellites per launch, and Yuanxin’s bids for additional launch slots have reportedly failed due to technical and capacity limitations.

To meet its near-term goals, Qianfan would need to occupy nearly half of China’s entire annual launch capacity, an unrealistic demand, especially with state-run competitors like the Guowang constellation also in the fray.

Adding to the woes, at least 17 of Qianfan’s deployed satellites have failed to reach their designated orbits. That technical underperformance raises concerns about the constellation’s operational viability.

For now, Qianfan is the world’s third-largest broadband constellation after Starlink and OneWeb, but unless rocket supply improves and satellite reliability issues are resolved, China’s private-sector push to dominate space-based internet may falter before takeoff.