Monsoon 2025 Forecast: India Likely to Receive 'Above Normal' Rainfall, Says IMD

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2025 is most likely to be above normal.

According to the IMD, India could receive 5 per cent more rainfall than the historical average of 87 cm.

In its first long-range forecast for the season, IMD said all the main drivers of Indian monsoon, including El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and snow-cover around the north pole, were favourable.

The IMD has forecast that this year’s monsoon could deliver 105 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall.

With the LPA pegged at 87 cm, this translates to over 91 cm of rainfall expected across the country during the four-month season.

If the prediction holds, it would be the fifth time since 2019 that India records 100 per cent or more of the seasonal rainfall.

It would also mark the second straight year of ‘above normal’ rainfall — a category defined by the IMD for rainfall between 104 and 110 per cent of the LPA.

The department classifies 96–104 per cent as ‘normal’ and anything above 110 per cent as ‘excess’. In 2024, the country had received 108 per cent of normal rainfall.

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