Morning Brief: Voting Begins Across Maharashtra, China Eyes Reset With India As Trump Promises Trade War, Centre-RBI Disagreement Widens On Inflation, Rate Cuts

Dear reader, make sense of the day’s news with Swarajya's roundup of what’s making headlines this morning. 

Voting Begins Across Maharashtra, Remaining Seats Of Jharkhand

Voting is underway in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, with all 288 Assembly seats in Maharashtra being contested in a single phase, while Jharkhand moves into the second and final phase, deciding 38 of its 81 seats.

In Maharashtra, the ruling Mahayuti coalition, led by Devendra Fadnavis, Eknath Shinde, and Ajit Pawar, faces a tough challenge from the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP.

Key battles include Deputy CM Ajit Pawar squaring off against his nephew Yugendra Pawar in Baramati, Fadnavis facing Congress’s Prafulla Gudhade in Nagpur South West, and Shinde defending his Kopri-Pachpakhadi seat against Anand Dighe of Sena (UBT).

In Jharkhand, the JMM-Congress alliance is battling the BJP and its ally AJSUP. Chief Minister Hemant Soren is contesting against BJP’s Gamaliel Hembrom in Barhait, while his wife, Kalpana Soren, takes on BJP’s Muniya Devi in Gandey. Other high-stakes contests include Babulal Marandi of the BJP competing against CPI(ML)L’s Rajkumar Yadav in Dhanwar and Sita Soren challenging Congress’s Irfan Ansari in Jamtara.

China Eyes Reset With India As Trump Promises Trade War

As China faces a slowing economy and the prospect of an escalating trade war with the United States under Donald Trump’s presidency, its business and political leaders are looking to reset economic ties with India. The recent disengagement along the borders has created an opening for renewed cooperation, with Chinese officials expressing optimism about future prospects. To counter its economic challenges, Beijing has announced two rounds of monetary and fiscal stimulus packages, with a third expected soon, aiming to bolster growth and stability.

China’s strategy includes strengthening trade relationships with large markets like India, which boasts a growing middle class. While China’s trade surplus with India remains a concern for New Delhi, Beijing sees potential in tapping into India’s investment landscape, especially as the NDA government focuses on enhancing domestic manufacturing.

This approach could help China offset losses from Trump’s proposed tariffs on Chinese goods, which could go as high as 60 per cent.

Centre, RBI Disagreement Widens On Inflation And Rate Cuts

Differences between the Centre and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) over interest rate cuts and inflation targeting are becoming more pronounced. Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran highlighted that retail inflation is largely driven by a few key commodities—tomato, onion, potato (TOP), gold, and silver. He pointed out that excluding these items would reduce the inflation rate to around 4 per cent.

This statement follows Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's call for more affordable bank interest rates to support industrial growth. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal also urged the RBI to cut rates, dismissing food inflation as a key factor in decision-making. The latest economic survey, compiled by Nageswaran's team, suggests revisiting the inflation targeting framework, possibly excluding volatile food prices, which contrasts with the RBI’s focus on headline inflation, where food inflation constitutes nearly 46 per cent.

Other Developments

Trump Names China Hawk As US Commerce Secretary

US President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, for the position of commerce secretary. Lutnick, with expertise in trading and real estate, has been a strong supporter of Trump on Wall Street, hosting fundraisers and backing his policies during media appearances.

As commerce secretary, Lutnick would oversee a broad range of responsibilities, including funding semiconductor manufacturing, regulating trade restrictions, and managing economic data. His deep connections with CEOs and the business community make him a strategic pick for the role. Lutnick would also play a key part in the US-China tech competition, working to enforce policies that limit China's access to critical technologies like semiconductors and advanced manufacturing equipment.

Ukraine Strikes Russia With Long Range US Missiles

Ukraine has used US-made ATACMS missiles to strike a Russian weapons facility in Bryansk, marking the first time Kyiv has deployed the long-range American weaponry. The attack, conducted early Tuesday, followed the Biden administration’s recent approval for Ukraine to target sites inside Russia, escalating tensions on the 1,000th day of the war.

Russia’s Defence Ministry reported that six missiles were fired, with five intercepted and one causing a fire at a military facility. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, while not confirming the attack, highlighted Ukraine’s growing long-range capabilities, including domestic drones, Neptune cruise missiles, and now ATACMS.

Andhra, Telangana Students Secure 56 Per Cent Of US Visas In India

India surpassed China to become the top country sending students to US universities in 2023-24, with Andhra Pradesh and Telangana playing a significant role. According to data from the US consulate-general in Hyderabad, nearly 56 per cent of Indian students heading to the US last year were from these two states—34 per cent from Telangana and 22 per cent from Andhra Pradesh.

The number of US students enrolling in Indian institutions also saw a remarkable 300% increase from the previous year. These details were shared by US consular officials Rebekah Drame and Alexander McLaren during a visit to Visakhapatnam on Tuesday. Although exact figures were not provided, it is estimated that around 1.8 lakh students from Telangana and Andhra Pradesh traveled to the US, contributing to India's total of nearly 3.3 lakh students.

From The States

Mumbai's 36 Seats: Shiv Sena Rivalry Takes Center Stage

Mumbai and its suburbs, with 36 seats, are set for an intense electoral battle, featuring 420 candidates and an electorate of around 1 crore. The two rival Shiv Senas—Eknath Shinde’s faction and Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena (UBT)—are at the center of the contest, with their performance in Mumbai likely to shape their political futures.

This marks the first Assembly election where the two factions will directly face each other. In the Lok Sabha polls, Sena (UBT) won two of three contested seats, while Shinde Sena managed just one by a razor-thin margin of 47 votes.

In the 36 seats, the Sena (UBT) is contesting 22, with its allies Congress and NCP (SP) fielding 11 and three candidates, respectively. The BJP leads the Mahayuti alliance with 18 candidates, followed by the Shinde Sena with 15 and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP also contesting three seats. Eleven constituencies will witness a head-to-head between the two Senas, while nine will see the Sena (UBT) take on its former ally, the BJP.

UP: Voting Underway For Bypolls In Nine Constituencies

Bypolls are underway in Uttar Pradesh for nine assembly seats, with over 34.35 lakh voters, including 15.88 lakh women, eligible to cast their votes. Eight of these seats fell vacant after the incumbent MLAs were elected to the Lok Sabha, while polling in Sisamau is being held following the disqualification of Samajwadi Party lawmaker Irfan Solanki after his conviction in a criminal case. This marks the first electoral contest in the state since the Lok Sabha elections, with votes to be counted on November 23.

The Congress, an INDIA bloc ally, is not contesting and has extended support to the Samajwadi Party, while the Bahujan Samaj Party is fielding candidates in all nine seats. Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM has entered the fray with candidates in three constituencies. Despite the contests, the results will not impact the 403-member assembly, where the BJP currently holds 251 seats and the Samajwadi Party 105.

Karnataka Congress Plans Mega Rally On 5 December

The ruling Congress is planning a mega political rally in Hassan on December 5 to demonstrate Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's strength in the JD(S) stronghold of former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda. The strategy for the rally was discussed in a meeting led by Siddaramaiah with senior ministers on Monday (18 November).

The Karnataka chief minister has instructed ministers to make the necessary arrangements, with Co-Operation Minister K S Rajanna taking charge. Rajanna confirmed the rally’s plans, emphasising the message it would send. Additionally, a rally for beneficiaries of the government's guarantee schemes will take place in Tumakuru on December 2, led by Home Minister G Parameshwara.

Stay tuned for more insights throughout the day.