Morning Brief: Winter Session of Parliament Kicks Off With Opposition In Disarray; Urban Demand Stabilising, Not Slowing; Oli's Government May Not Survive His China Trip

Dear reader, catch up on the day’s must-read stories with Swarajya's roundup of the morning's headlines.

Winter Session Of Parliament Begins Today

The winter session of Parliament begins today, with a packed agenda that includes discussions on several key bills, such as the Waqf Act (Amendment) Bill. The opposition is expected to raise pressing issues, including the violence in Manipur, North India's air pollution crisis, and bribery allegations against the Adani Group. However, the opposition faces an uphill battle, reeling from its humiliating loss in the Maharashtra assembly election and the setbacks in by-polls in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Running until December 20, the session will see numerous bills introduced, debated, and potentially passed. Speculation is rife that the government could table the 'One Nation One Election' bill during this period. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently reiterated his commitment to the concept, emphasising its importance in the government’s agenda.

Urban Demand Stabilising, Not Slowing 

Several economists have noted that urban demand in India is stabilising rather than slowing, with recent growth moderation in car and packaged goods sales seen as an expected adjustment following the Covid-induced consumption boom. Manufacturers have raised concerns over potential demand contraction in cities, citing moderations in passenger vehicle and fast-moving consumer goods sales.

However, Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank, explained that purchases are returning to normal trends after the post-Covid surge. Standard Chartered Bank's senior economist, Anubhuti Sahay, added that the moderation reflects both a demand normalisation and a cyclical slowdown. Official data showed industrial production growth fell to 2.6 per cent in Q2, down from 5.4 per cent in Q1, with high-frequency indicators like the Purchasing Managers Index also showing moderation.

Oli's Government May Not Survive His China Trip

The KP Sharma Oli-led government in Nepal faces the risk of collapse if the prime minister agrees to loans under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) during his upcoming visit to China. His coalition partner, the Nepali Congress (NC), has insisted that Nepal should seek grants instead of loans, citing China's failure to meet previous grant commitments under the BRI. The NC has strongly opposed Oli's move to join the BRI and there are indications that it may reconsider its support for the government if Oli proceeds with plans to seek loans.

Nepal traditionally prefers grants over loans due to its economic concerns and has been wary of the BRI, unlike countries like Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

Oli has stated that his visit to China will not harm Nepal's relationship with India, emphasizing that there is no reason for the visit to affect ties with its southern neighbor, even though China is his first destination abroad. Traditionally, most Nepalese prime ministers choose India as their first foreign destination.

Other Development

US Reviews Adani's Sri Lanka Port Project Amid Bribery Allegations

The US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) is reviewing the impact of bribery allegations against the Adani Group on its agreement to lend over USD 550 million for a Sri Lankan port project. Last November, the DFC committed to providing funding for the development of a port terminal in Colombo, partially owned by the Adani Group.

US prosecutors in New York recently indicted Adani and seven others on charges of paying approximately USD 265 billion in bribes to Indian government officials. These bribes were allegedly paid to secure contracts that would generate USD 2 billion in profits over 20 years, including the development of India's largest solar power plant.

Israel And Hezbollah Near Ceasefire Deal

Reports indicate that Israel and Hezbollah are on the verge of reaching a ceasefire deal, according to Axios. However, despite the unofficial confirmation, attacks on Lebanon continue, and over 3,000 people have died in the country since the escalation in mid-September, as reported by the Lebanese health ministry.

A CNN report also suggests that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is nearing completion but has not yet been finalized.

The draft agreement proposes a 60-day transition period, during which Israeli forces would withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese military would be deployed along the border, and Hezbollah would relocate its heavy artillery north of the Litani River.

From The States

Maha Yuti To reveal State's Next CM Today

Amid intense political manoeuvring, Maha Yuti could reveal the state's next Chief Minister today. The RSS has backed BJP's Devendra Fadnavis, the key architect behind the Maha Yuti-NDA's victory, as the next Maharashtra Chief Minister. However, Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde and NCP President Ajit Pawar are also being considered for the role, despite the BJP's historic performance in the state.

Shinde's supporters are pushing for the continuation of the current power-sharing formula, while Pawar’s aides argue for a change. The decision rests with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who are known for making unexpected choices based on broader political calculations. With the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly's term ending on November 26, a new government must be in place, with a swearing-in ceremony expected on Tuesday or Wednesday.

UP's Sambhal Tense After Violence Over Mosque Survey

Four people were killed, and several others, including 20 police officers, were injured during violent clashes between protesters and police in UP's Sambhal on Sunday. The violence erupted as hundreds of people opposed an Advocate Commission's survey of the Shahi Masjid, which was sparked by allegations that the mosque was built during the Mughal era by demolishing a temple that stood at the site.

Protesters resorted to stone-pelting and set vehicles on fire, prompting police to use tear gas to control the situation. In response, authorities imposed prohibitory orders, suspended internet services, and shut down schools and colleges in the area. Security measures have been heightened to prevent further escalation.

Hemant Soren To Take Oath As Jharkhand CM On November 28

Hemant Soren will take oath as Jharkhand's chief minister once again on November 28, with several ministers from his cabinet joining him, including five from his party, the JMM. The formula for cabinet allocation, agreed upon by the INDIA bloc partners, will remain the same as in the outgoing government, with JMM receiving six berths, Congress four, and RJD one.

JMM sources have confirmed that the new cabinet will include a tribal, a minority, and an OBC member, with the remaining ministers selected based on seniority. Ghatsila MLA Ramdas Soren, who defeated Champai Soren's son in the recent election, is expected to be reappointed as a minister. The JMM is also keen to establish a new leader in the Kolhan region following Champai Soren’s exit.

Stay tuned for more insights throughout the day.