‘One Nation, Two Polls’: Two Reasons Why It's Better Than 'One Nation, One Poll'

Update: The Cabinet cleared the 'one nation, one poll' proposal shortly after this story was published on 18 September.

The latest buzz in town is that the Modi government is looking to bring 'one nation, one poll' (ONOP) to reality in this term. This means that there is a possibility that all state assemblies in India and the Lok Sabha seek re-election simultaneously in 2029. 

However, what is more likely to happen, and is more practical, is ‘one nation, two polls’ (ONTP). 

What Is ONTP? 

ONTP involves two phases of elections spaced 2.5 years (30 months) apart.

The first phase includes the Lok Sabha election and the state assemblies whose terms are near completion either a few months before or after the Lok Sabha term and the second phase, held 2.5 years out, includes elections to the rest of the state assemblies.

This is what the seventy-ninth report of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Personnel, Public Grievances, Law, and Justice said on the issue in 2015: 

“The Committee recommends an alternative and practicable method of holding simultaneous elections which involves holding of elections in two phases. The Committee has envisaged the holding of elections of some Legislative Assemblies at midterm of Lok Sabha and remaining with the end of tenure of Lok Sabha... Elections to all State Assemblies whose terms end prior to or after a time period of six months to one year from the appointed election date can be clubbed together. The terms of some State Legislative Assemblies may need to be extended while some of them may need to be curtailed.” 

Drawing from this view, a 2017 NITI Aayog working paper co-authored by Bibek Debroy and Kishore Desai recommended the following:

“Building further upon the above idea proposed by the Parliamentary Standing Committee which they recommended after extensive analysis and stakeholder consultations, it is suggested that simultaneous elections be considered in two phases. Phase I is suggested to be in sync with that of the Lok Sabha elections i.e. April – May 2019. Phase II is suggested approximately mid-way in the term of the Lok Sabha i.e. 30 months after Phase I - around October – November 2021. Thereafter, it is envisaged to conduct elections every 2.5 years (30 months) in the country once the entire electoral cycles of Lok Sabha and all State Assemblies are synchronised by December 2021.” 

This staggering of the national election cycle, instead of clubbing all state assembly elections with that of the Lok Sabha, is a better idea for two reasons primarily. 

1. Thirty months is an optimum time for governments to submit report cards

The Vidhan Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh are held approximately three years after the previous Lok Sabha election. This arrangement serves the state well, as through the Lok Sabha polls, the state government faces a popularity test roughly midway through its tenure. 

This gives the party in power genuine feedback and an opportunity to draw lessons from the same and course-correct (that is if the party in power is open to course correction). Overall, it gives all the political players an assessment of where they stand a good three years before the Vidhan Sabha test. 

To the extent that parties and governments determine their course of action on feedback, what can be a better feedback mechanism than an election? The sample size is humongous, and regardless of what some leaders say, there is no fudging of data. 

The same arguments apply from the point of view of the central government too. An election cycle 2.5 years apart from the Lok Sabha poll, in which nearly half the state assemblies vote, is an appropriate test for the government halfway through its term. In extreme cases, it can prevent a government from staying in the wrong lane for five whole years.

2. Hedge against extreme outcomes

From the voters' perspective, having two election cycles spaced 30 months apart provides a timely outlet to express their views. If elections are the safety valves of democracy, they are better placed 2.5 years apart rather than five. 

To appreciate this better, consider this example. Suppose the ONOP happens within a 1984-style context. One party gets a humongous majority at the centre and also secures its government in all or almost all state assemblies.

Moreover, the next election cycle is five years away. It’s a good thought if ‘your guy’ is the winner but a dreadful scenario if the ‘other guy’ wins. 

In such a case, any popular expression of disapproval of the party in power will have no avenue for expression anywhere in the country for the next five years. In the absence of a democratic space to vent, what forms such disapprovals can take is anyone’s guess. 

When it comes to political procedures, systems, and institutions, we’ll all do well to ask one question before going all in on one particular choice: ‘Am I comfortable with this falling into the hands of people I don’t agree with?’ 

While the government has not yet revealed its preference for either ONOP or ONTP, if the last 10 years have taught us anything, it’s that when it comes to policy, Narendra Modi values common sense more than anything else.