What An Alliance Between Actor Vijay, Seeman, And The AIADMK Could Mean For Tamil Nadu Politics

S Rajesh

Jul 02, 2024, 06:39 PM | Updated 06:42 PM IST

A Vijay-Seeman-AIADMK alliance could pose a formidable challenge for the DMK
A Vijay-Seeman-AIADMK alliance could pose a formidable challenge for the DMK
  • If such an alliance forms, it could make it difficult for the ruling DMK to return to power in 2026.
  • In the past few days, there has been a lot of chatter about a possible alliance that could impact Tamil Nadu politics.

    The potential alliance would constitute the Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) of Tamil film actor Joseph Vijay, the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) of Seeman, and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).

    There is talk about NTK and AIADMK coming together because of Seeman’s remarks in support of the AIADMK leaders' hunger strike in protest against the recent hooch tragedy. 

    There are also rumours that the AIADMK would throw its weight behind the NTK candidate in the upcoming Vikravandi bypoll (where it is not contesting) to ensure the defeat of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) candidate. The PMK is with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

    The speculation around Vijay and Seeman coming together is much older. The two have an overlapping support base — the youth and those who want to vote for ‘change’, that is, those who want to see parties other than the DMK and AIADMK come to power in the state.

    Like Vijay, Seeman is also believed to be a Christian, as his real name is said to be Sebastian Simon.

    While there is no confirmation yet, if such an alliance does happen, it could make things difficult for the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) to return to power in 2026.

    Even if the AIADMK holds on to the 20 per cent vote share it secured in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, with the NTK’s 8 per cent vote share and Vijay’s probable vote share of up to 5 per cent, the alliance would be able to come close to or cross the 30 per cent mark. 

    That large a share could then start translating into seats.

    Vijay could get a vote share of up to 5 per cent because the Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), started by film actor Kamal Haasan, secured a vote share of 3.72 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha election and 2.62 per cent in the 2021 assembly election. A similar or better performance by Vijay is within the realm of possibility.

    All Three Parties Stand To Gain

    The alliance could prove advantageous to all three parties.

    The NTK, which has been unable to win seats as a small player in the state’s politics for quite some time now, could get its first set of members of the legislative assembly (MLAs).

    The AIADMK would get much-needed additional heft after its poor performance in the Lok Sabha election. 

    For Vijay, the alliance would help because he would get access to the large and dedicated cadre of the other two parties.

    Will Vijay Choose The Alliance Path?

    There are doubts, however, as to whether Vijay would want to make his political debut through an alliance, especially with established players like the AIADMK. Doing so could send the signal that he is not here for ‘change’.

    Even for Seeman, who has consistently portrayed his party as ‘different’, it would be difficult to justify an alliance with the AIADMK.

    The BJP Gets Affected?

    One of the possible fallouts of such an alliance would be that it could negatively affect the BJP.

    The national party has grown quite a bit in Tamil Nadu these last few years, and under the leadership of its state president, K Annamalai, it secured a vote share of around 11 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. It also pushed the AIADMK to third place in some constituencies. 

    But with an alliance as formidable as the TVK-NTK-AIADMK, people wanting to dislodge the DMK from power in the state might choose not to vote for the BJP or NDA.

    What also can't be ruled out is whether any of the parties currently aligned with the DMK decide to jump ship and join the AIADMK-led alliance. The PMK, too, could leave the NDA, weakening it further.

    Thus, it would be interesting to watch how things play out before the 2026 assembly election. Whether there would be an alliance between the three parties, or only between Vijay and Seeman, or if all of this is just speculation and no such alliance will form, is something that will be known in the days to come.

    S Rajesh is Staff Writer at Swarajya.

    Get Swarajya in your inbox.